I will respectfully disagree with you. I am one who tends to believe the polls. They were right in 2012, and I believe they are generally right now. A month ago, Hillary was enjoying a post convention bump, and Trump was dealing with the fallout of his Russia comment (he wasn’t encouraging espionage like the media tried to play it out to be), the Khan comments, and questions whether or not he was Presidential (attributed to what they said was lack of policy at rallies and off the cuff gaffes). Republicans were coming out saying they couldn’t vote for him, Republicans who said they were voting for him like Ryan were condemning him, and there was talk of having the RNC divert resources down ballot. The poll numbers weren’t good.
If things were doing well, Trump would not have restructured his campaign. Manafort wouldn’t be gone, and Conway/Bannon wouldn’t be in charge. Trump has completely turned this around, and it’s been great to see. He has used a teleprompter (while still ad libbing here and there) and really focused on hitting Hillary hard and talking policy, giving detailed policy speeches, has reached out to African American voters, gone to Mexico, and visited areas of the country where citizens are struggling. The polls reflect this. Gone are the daily questions of “Will he pivot for a general election?” “Can he be Presidential?” The answer is that he has pivoted without changing his policies, and he has shown he can be Presidential. The media has all but dropped that attack line. Gone are the Republicans attacking him consistently (with the exception of some criticism regarding his Putin comments). We aren’t seeing lists put out by the WaPo or NYT anymore of Republicans either saying they are voting for Hillary or not voting at all. Sure, I firmly believe there are establishment or purist Republicans that don’t like him, but many have backed off in criticizing him because they see he is doing well (with the exception of folks like Beck, Shapiro, Flake, etc.).
Meanwhile, Hillary has been mired in controversy with her emails, foundation, and health. She’s been off the trail and hobnobbing with the elite at fundraisers while she insults the little people, Trump supporters, as “baskets full of deplorables.”
If the media was fudging the polls (and I can understand why people believe that), why would they start revealing the truth now, though? Meaning, Hillary has had a bad stretch. If they kept her up in the polls through this bad stretch, then she would “appear” unbeatable. The polls have seemed to follow the trajectory of how the campaigns are doing. For example, Trump had a bounce coming out of the convention.
I can’t get excited when the polls are good if I refuse to believe the same polls when they are bad. Momentum is shifting our way right now, and that is a good thing.
“I can’t get excited when the polls are good if I refuse to believe the same polls when they are bad. Momentum is shifting our way right now, and that is a good thing.”
Your point is nonsense. The objective fact of Trump being in the lead all along has nothing whatsoever to do with whether or not the polls ever accurately reflected that fact. It has been noted here at FR ever since Trump entered the race that Trump was never behind at any time during the primaries or now. Yet we still see those, like yourself, that somehow can’t get their minds around the fact that the MSM has been gaslighting the American people ongoingly for, like, forever, with their BS constructs that Trump was behind his primary opponents and the Hildabeast. Why can’t you acknowledge that you’ve been lied to by the MSM and the Marxocrats? C’mon, man, wake up and smell the coffee!
I don’t trust the polls. Best example is 1980 when Gallup (and others) had Carter up 9 points over Reagan in mid-October! Now there’s no way Reagan suddenly gained 20 points in three weeks.
In 1948 the pollsters had it very wrong too. And Trump’s campaign is similar to Truman’s, the pundits didn’t see it coming. Or didn’t want too.
To properly prove your theory of polling accuracy against mine, it would not be sufficient to say, simply, “They were right in 2012, [therefore] ....they are generally right now.”
You’d have to say WHEN in 2012 they were right, because my theory holds that the polls were right in 2012 as well!
The difference is that I’m saying the polls are generally inaccurate up until about 6-8 weeks before November 8, and then they become accurate.
What happens 6-8 weeks before November 8?
Two important things:
1) time between the prediction and the event becomes short enough, that the pollsters know they will be held accountable for their accuracy. What they predict will be remembered.
2) the voters being polled become much more accurate about who they will vote for. In a 6 week period there is so much less that could happen to change their mind. 8 months prior, voters not even know what their choices will be.
Around 6-8 weeks the wiggle room goes away, there is so much less time to forget, so few circumstances that can change. They are basically no longer free to express their opinion, totally subjective, totally lacking in scientific discipline. Now they must place their real bet.
Around 6-8 weeks before an event people (and pollsters) begin to make their statements knowing they will be held accountable and based on meaningful data. About the only things that could change now is a total debate flub, a scandal revelation, a health problem or terrorist attack. - all of which are likely to reinforce Trump.
I think in any election cycle the polling is totally inaccurate, unaccountable and meaningless two months out.
The problem with all of this is there is no way to prove my theory or yours! The only way would be to surprise people and actually hold the election early.
I’m just basing my theory on human psychology and common sense. Why would polls be accurate 8 months out? There is no incentive for accuracy and no accountability for innacuracy. How could they possibly be accurate? Voters have no idea what their choices will be come 11/8, and what will transpire in the meantime that could change their minds.