Need to take these with a grain of salt. Same survey has Clinton up 13 in VA, 8 in NV, 5 in NC and 3 in Florida and Trump only up 6 in KY and NE. Must be very low sample sizes all around. Trump is not down 13 in VA nor is he down 8 in NV. But still, good to see his leads where noted. One thing I noticed is that Reuters is forecasting AA turnout at only 59%. Obama had 66% AA turnout in 2012. That is very concerning for Hillary.
If black turnout is 7 points less than 2012 and Trump performs markedly better than Romney, Hillary is done, especially with Trump’s numbers with independents.
“Need to take these with a grain of salt.”
Ipsos/Reuters nailed the results in 2012.
Fox News Polls = Garbage
I only pay attention to polls from Ipsos/Reuters and PPP.
Most Accurate Polls:
Yes, Hillary isn’t going to get Obama’s turnout.
I was just looking at the Emerson College polls Aug 25-28 for OH, PA and MI.
In PA they have weighting of D 45: R 35: I 21 and results are 46% to 43% for Clinton.
In MI they have D 40: R 29: I 21 with results of 45% to 40% for Clinton.
In OH they have D 37: R 31: I 32 with 43.5% to 42.5% for Trump.
If those weightings are wrong as I think they are, then Trump is likely ahead to way ahead in all 3. They claim the weighting was adjusted to fit 2012 results. Unlikely that those weights will hold, plus doing the weighting after the fact by censoring data causes credibility problems.
http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_865ec63b1c494be78da4af7d7834766c.pdf