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To: Helicondelta

Need to take these with a grain of salt. Same survey has Clinton up 13 in VA, 8 in NV, 5 in NC and 3 in Florida and Trump only up 6 in KY and NE. Must be very low sample sizes all around. Trump is not down 13 in VA nor is he down 8 in NV. But still, good to see his leads where noted. One thing I noticed is that Reuters is forecasting AA turnout at only 59%. Obama had 66% AA turnout in 2012. That is very concerning for Hillary.


23 posted on 09/05/2016 8:16:03 PM PDT by usafa92 (Trump 2016 - Destroying the GOPe while Making America Great Again!)
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To: usafa92

If black turnout is 7 points less than 2012 and Trump performs markedly better than Romney, Hillary is done, especially with Trump’s numbers with independents.


33 posted on 09/05/2016 8:22:06 PM PDT by Mjreagan
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To: usafa92

“Need to take these with a grain of salt.”

Ipsos/Reuters nailed the results in 2012.

Fox News Polls = Garbage

I only pay attention to polls from Ipsos/Reuters and PPP.

Most Accurate Polls:

http://www.businessinsider.com/most-accurate-polls-of-2012-election-obama-romney-ppp-daily-kos-gallup-rasmussen-2012-11


37 posted on 09/05/2016 8:31:06 PM PDT by Helicondelta
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To: usafa92

Yes, Hillary isn’t going to get Obama’s turnout.


47 posted on 09/05/2016 8:43:35 PM PDT by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: usafa92; Helicondelta

I was just looking at the Emerson College polls Aug 25-28 for OH, PA and MI.

In PA they have weighting of D 45: R 35: I 21 and results are 46% to 43% for Clinton.

In MI they have D 40: R 29: I 21 with results of 45% to 40% for Clinton.

In OH they have D 37: R 31: I 32 with 43.5% to 42.5% for Trump.

If those weightings are wrong as I think they are, then Trump is likely ahead to way ahead in all 3. They claim the weighting was adjusted to fit 2012 results. Unlikely that those weights will hold, plus doing the weighting after the fact by censoring data causes credibility problems.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_865ec63b1c494be78da4af7d7834766c.pdf


88 posted on 09/06/2016 1:48:45 AM PDT by monkeyshine
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