last week he was dismissing the LA Times poll
actually, he has consistently employed the Dornsife poll, and has defended that usage...
and the week before that he was claiming the polls were correct and Trump was getting slammed...
two weeks ago the polls were indeed showing a Trump defeat, as RCP and 270 to Win both had Clinton at 272 EV’s; as of now, both have reduced the Clinton tally to 262 with the recent WI polling, and Silver has accordingly upgraded Trump to 30% from the 13% he had him at...he was simply reporting what the polling indicated; I can’t imagine what else you think he should be doing...
RCP is way behind the times. They never update when the R is in the lead. When they do they saturate positive D polls at the same time. They also don’t use the tracking polls like Dornslife/LA Times except on a once a week basis. Hasn’t incluced this poll in over a week. I don’t think polls are the “end all” but Silver adjusts when facts are clearly in front of him.
Trump got a HUGE bump from his convention which started a week or two BEFORE the convention began.
Nate purposely ignored the first week or so of Trumps convention bounce and only measured Trumps bounce starting from where his numbers were on day one of the convention.
THEN, since the Democratic convention was only a week after the Republican, Hillary's convention bounce (which did start exactly when he convention did) dramatically stepped on Trumps bounce.
But Nate's spin aside, the TRUTH is, both candidates got about a 3 week bounce from their conventions after which BOTH of their numbers reverted back to where they were in the months previous to the convention with Hillary sitting at about 41-42 and Trump sitting about 38-39.
BUT, over the last week Trump has made some progress and now the race is looking like a toss up at 40% each, with Trump having gained couple of points, and Hillary having lost a couple of points.
That still leaves 20% unaccounted for.
And I don't believe for a second that more than 1 or 2% will in the end vote 3rd party this year.
Which means 16-18% of the people are currently undecided and WILL eventually decide this race.
I believe they will decide after the debates in Trumps favor.
What polling from WI may I ask?