Posted on 08/28/2016 7:16:23 AM PDT by Redmen4ever
Donald Trump trails Democratic rival Hillary Clinton by only 3 percentage points in a new national poll from Morning Consult …
(Excerpt) Read more at morningconsult.com ...
This is a new, internet-based poll. It, like many other such polls, relies heavily on converting a non-random sample into a representative sample through weighting of demographics. Trump tends to perform well in these polls and in automated caller polls, compared to live-caller polls. There is some question as to why polls in battleground states seem to differ so markedly from the nationwide polls.
it’s been a 2-3 point race the entire race except for the 3 weeks surrounding each candidates convention.
Trumps convention bounce started 2 weeks before the convention and lasted until one week after at the start of Hillary’s convention.
Hillary convention bounce started the 1st day of her Convention and continued 2 weeks after it ended.
Now we are right back where we started with both Hillary and Trump in the low 40’s nearly everywhere.
The debates WILL decide this race, mark my words.
I do not mind African-American voters being wary, that is actually a very good strategy going into this election, if they are also equally wary of Herself. Fool me once, shame on you, fool me over and over for decades, well, the burden of blame has to shift just a little.
More like the debate "moderators" WILL decide this race.
Only 79% of blacks support Hillary.
That’s a far bigger problem for her than Trump. If she doesn’t get 90% she’s cooked.
We have been following this poll since the primaries. Generally speaking they lean Clinton. The internals of this poll make little sense. Trump is only down by two overall, but is tied with independents and trailing by double digits with women. Trump is generally up double digits with independents. With those numbers Clinton should be up by a lot more. So, perhaps morning consult has a Democrat to Republican sample more in line with and even turn out model. At any rate this race is tied amongst likely voters. Hillary seems to be stuck at her customary 41 to 43%.
I don’t trust the internals of any of the internet-based polls. They’re not scientific polls to begin with. They’re something like sophisticated straw polls. Having said, I like sophisticated straw polls. They can be useful reasonable adjustments - internal (as with demographic) or external (e.g., treated like an index relative to scientific polls). But, there’s just so far that you can push them.
It’s registered voters.
I am so weary of hearing about black voters.
They are about 13% of the population-—why the special attention?
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> “...converting a non-random sample into a representative sample through weighting of demographics.”
Impossible.
All pollsters are statistics flunkies. They are a joke to genuine statistical science.
Only a pollster could think a distorted sample could be converted to a representative sample via weighting.
Such pollsters would believe a cube could be converted to a sphere by downweighting its corners. And they would be foolish enough to believe their distorted cube conclusions are valid.
And the post debate analysts. I don’t see anyone saying Trump won on Fox.
>>They are about 13% of the population-—why the special attention?
Because they vote in bulk, herd mentality
White votes are divided
Only because they have, traditionally, allocated about 90% of their vote to one, and only one party. No matter the candidate, or the issues. It is just about impossible to find one demographic of that size which does that.
In a presidential, not congressional race, it could spell the margin of victory in a swing state, like Ohio. The Dems bake that 90% in their cake; if they don’t get it - their math doesn’t work on winning the state. We don’t have to win them all.
In many cases, cutting the margin from 90% to 75% might tilt the state!
Because it only takes a few votes either way to swing a few states, and they are in those few states. If he can turn maybe 20% of the normally reliable and taken for granted black vote, he can win states other republicans would not.
Hillary is getting 68% of black votes in Florida and trump gets 20%. she gets 50% of Hispanics and Trump gets 40%. The outreach is working. Going to the inner cities will help even more.
All that matters is that Trump proves that he is not an evil demon incarnate who will eat your children.
“I am so weary of hearing about black voters.
They are about 13% of the population-—why the special attention?”
It is a dimoKKKRAT weak spot and Trump is trying to exploit it. Also around 95% of the Blacks vote dimoKKKRAT. If Trump picks off a good chunk of that vote he wins.
I think Trump is polishing up a few dynamite one liners. He intends to control the debates and will do so. There is NOTHING she can do.
Trump simply showing up and sounding like a reasonable guy who loves America and has some common sense ideas will be enough to propel him to the White House.
Because the stage has been perfectly set for him by the leftest media itself.
THEY made Trump into a monster in their coverage of him. All he need do to win... is show during the debates he is not the monster the liberal media has made him out to be.
No one has had a lower ball to get over than Trump.
As long as every undecided voter that watches the debates comes away thinking... Trump didn't sound like the reckless, racist, madman that will kill us all if elected the press has been tell me he is. At which point they will say... um.. the PRESS LIED TO ME!!! (which will be an easy conclusion to jump to since they dont trust the press to begin with)
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