This is really good news. Those who have prematurely written off Trump are really missing several key indicators.
1. The GOP has closed the gap in party id. The parties are virtually tied with independents representing the single largest group.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx
If you go back and compare exit polls versus party id to get a sense of how turn aligned with party id you find that for the 2 major parties the party id tends to align with the % they actually get. Independents however tend to turnout somewhat less than they poll on party id.
2. Polls are assuming 2012 models. We got burned in 2012 because many assumed a greater fall off of Obama support than actually occurred so Romney lost even though he managed to cut Obama’s vote share. Obama isn’t in the race this time and theirs no evidence that Clinton can inspire people to the polls like Obama. While she is a woman she is also a woman that drives up male support for Trump and Trump is getting nearly twice as many independents as Romney did in 2012.
3. Nearly 1/4 of the electorate refuses to say who they will vote for. These voters typically favor the challenger.
4. The wrong track indicator is a huge advantage to Trump at the end of the day. Clinton is the de facto incumbent so she will face the brunt of upset voters and people who are upset tend to vote.
Re #2. IMO, Romney probably won. I think there was enough falloff of 0vomit support for him to win, but it was covered over with vote fraud. Hitlery may attract some enthusiasm in a certain segment of the female population, but she also repulses a good number of women. There are plenty of women who will vote for a man they find “attractive” but will vote against almost any woman. This type of woman will dislike any woman who is “threatening” to her, either because she is attractive (not a factor in Hitlery’s case) or powerful.
Re #3. Agree. An additional factor is that many conservatives refuse to say who they will vote for because they don’t want to participate in polls. Also, IMO, there are few GOPe types who will reluctantly vote Trump but don’t want to admit it.