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To: dp0622
You need to look at the day that falls off the seven day average to get a sense at what might drive the new posted number. In today's case, a terrible day for Hillary and a great day for Trump fell out of the seven day average. So it is somewhat predictable that there would be some tightening today. Tomorrow, a decent day for both Trump and Hillary falls off but unless it is replaced by some dramatic movement on either side in the polling day they accumulate today, the overall average numbers won't change much. Then, the next day, a terrible day for Hillary drops off, and a fantastic day for Trump drops off. So barring any major news in the next two days, I suspect Wednesday's poll will show significant tightening.

But don't get lost in the daily published numbers. Instead, just take a broader view at the graph of the numbers. That gives a better sense of how the race is trending. When you do that, you should see that like every election, the race is still currently to volatile to call. And despite the media narrative, the support for either candidate is nowhere near set in stone. That's good news for Trump because he doesn't have a 30 year career in politics that he has to overcome to convince people he's something new. He's statement to blacks regarding "what do you have to lose" is really a call to all voters. If they liked Hillary's record, her support would be stable. They don't. And she can't make it disappear. They know what they get with her and it's not good. Not sure with Trump. So why not give him a try.

35 posted on 08/22/2016 8:43:30 AM PDT by Rokke
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To: Rokke

Wow. That was great!

Thanks for all the info and insight.

Joined 2 years ago and my knowledge has increased 10 fold.

I thought Vietnam was a relatively new country before i joined the board :)


37 posted on 08/22/2016 8:51:52 AM PDT by dp0622 (The only thing an upper crust conservative hates more than a liberal is a middle class conservative)
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To: Rokke

If you notice the scaling on many of the graphs they show visual perspective that favors Hillary and makes her number spread appear bigger, like when comparing Male and Female voters notice the scaling is wider for Males, making it look like lots more females then males voting for Hillary.

I emailed the director of the USC Dornsife /LA Times and she told me I was correct, it is due to an automated program and she would have it fixed and we should notice the scaling changes in the next few days. She said it was not intentional and that they want to graphically represent the data without prejudice so they are making the graph changes......... She was very nice and seemed sincere.


39 posted on 08/22/2016 11:01:32 AM PDT by IVAXMAN
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