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To: UMCRevMom@aol.com
While I think Trump will win, I think he is behind at the moment, but not very far behind. I trust the professional polls more than this "honest" poll. Not wanting to be a wet blanket...just want to be a realistic one. I do think Trump will pull ahead when the debates starts, and especially with him just doing better with the speeches.

Their argument that a few hundred is not a large enough sample size does not hold water. It is large enough--provided the method one uses to select the sample is accurate. If the method is not accurate, then increasing the sample size will not help. This is strictly mathematics, not really a judgement call.

The judgement call comes in determining what a valid method of selecting a sample is. While I am not sure the professional pollsters have it down for this election, I suspect they are far closer than these guys.

12 posted on 08/20/2016 2:07:05 AM PDT by AndyTheBear (Hating Islam is the natural consequence of caring about people in the Middle East, including Muslims)
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To: AndyTheBear

Trump just shot ahead in the USC poll, having come back from 4 down. That’s a 5-point swing since DNC ended.


42 posted on 08/20/2016 6:26:57 AM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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