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Clinton Can't Win in November
Townhall.com ^ | August 13, 2016 | Michael Hammond

Posted on 08/13/2016 1:37:35 PM PDT by Kaslin

Paul Ryan, Kelly Ayotte, and John McCain got what they wanted. At the expense of their party, they bludgeoned Donald Trump into supporting their RINO candidacies over their superior conservative challengers.  Perrinnial Leftist lapdog, anti-gun activist Susan Collins (whose Collins/Snowe "Hamlet routine" in 2009 helped pass ObamaCare), also got a "doggie treat" from the press for her betrayal.

But, for other RINO's tempted to backstab the man who could be president, they may want to tattoo this talking point on their palms and read it whenever the Leftist press (including Fox) asks them anything about Donald Trump.

The talking point is this:  "I have no obligation to denounce my allies, just because you "order" me to do so.  And this is particularly true so long as you continue to excuse the vile, loathsome, and dangerous behavior of Hillary Clinton."

The fact is, there's a universe of things I find disgusting, starting out with each morning's edition of the New York Times.  And while I am almost always tempted to write a letter denouncing their contemptible hypocrisy, I never do.

Because you choose your fights -- and your denunciations.  And you probably should choose to fight your enemies, rather than your friends.

And whether the RINO's understand it or not, the loss of the White House this year will probably determine the course which this nation will take for the remainder of our lifetimes.

And everyone understands that but them.

These are the facts:  Donald Trump will win the presidential election on November 8, 2016.

Unless the Republican base throws the race.

Which they're more than capable of doing, at the behest of a "puppet press" which wants to utterly destroy them.

THE "TODD AKIN PLAYBOOK"

Make no mistake about it:  The press is running the same "playbook" they used to defeat Missouri GOP Senate candidate Todd Akin -- and to keep the Senate in Democrat hands that year.

But the "Todd Akin playbook" relies, for its success, on the Republican base buying into it.  Without that, it fails.

What is the "Todd Akin playbook"?  It works like this:  The Left takes a small misstep by a Republican candidate and trumpets it as though it was the most execrable error in the history of man. The quote is initially taken out of context, but, after the first day, it is no longer even quoted, and is merely characterized as "racist, bigoted, anti-woman, fascist," etc.

Coupled with phony polls to "show" the race is hopeless, the "Todd Akin playbook" only works if the press can convince Republicans to decimate their own candidate.

In the end, the race almost always turns out to have been imminently doable, but we find that out only after Republicans have abandoned it.

What sort of "missteps" are we talking about?

Two weeks ago, Democrats and the press were attacking the mother of a son killed at Benghazi in these terms:  "cynical exploitation," "an early dip into the gutter," "so offensive it was hard to comprehend," "the weaponization of grief," "deranged."  One Democrat said he wanted to "beat [the mother of the dead son] to death."

Now, these same hypocrites are working to destroy Donald Trump on the basis of mild comments about the varieties of sacrifice.

Ditto, Trump's comments Tuesday about the Second Amendment -- and Hillary's assumption that all 100,000,000 gun owners are killers, criminals, and assassins and that that's what Trump meant.

Ditto, a president who excoriated the Supreme Court to its face, and is suddenly strangely protective of Gonzalo Curiel, the biased, anti-Trump judge he appointed.

In each of these cases, our most ruthless enemies demand that Republicans throw the election, just as the usual suspects (John McCain, Kelly Ayotte, Lindsey Graham) obediently jumped up and barked, in the hopes that liberals would throw them a "doggie treat."

Why would we do that?

REASONS WHY ELECTION PROSPECTS LOOK GOOD

First, in dealing with national "head-on-head" polls, you have to subtract at least four points from Clinton's totals in order to find out where the race really is.

This is because Clinton will get 3-to-4 million (or more) excess votes in California, New York, and Illinois which will do her absolutely no good.

In 2012, Barack Obama won the popular vote by almost 5-million votes -- nearly 4% of the votes cast for Obama or Romney.  And, yet, a switch of under 214,800 votes in Ohio, New Hampshire, Florida, and Virginia would have put Romney in White House.  Thus a razor-thin 0.2% of voters determined the outcome of a race Obama won by nearly 5,000,000 popular votes.  It was a virtual "tie race," even though Obama won it by 4% of the popular vote.

The disparity arises from this reality:  In 2012, Obama won California by over 3,000,000 votes.  He could have lost 1.5 million votes in that state, and it would have made no difference in his electoral college votes.  Similarly, Obama won New York by almost 2,000,000 votes.  He could have lost nearly 1,000,000 of those, and it would have made no difference.  In Illinois, Obama won by over 875,000 votes -- a surplus of over 430,000 useless votes.

Similarly, Gore beat Bush by over 500,000 votes in 2000.  But he lost the electoral college 271-268.  And the reason is that, even back then, Gore won California by over 600,000 unneeded votes and he won New York by over 800,000 unneeded votes (half his 1,707,395 margin of victory).  Together these "wasted votes" from these two states alone constituted about 1.5% of the total popular vote.

And as California becomes bluer, with the recent registration of 1.5-million Democratic Hispanics, the trend is much more dramatic even than in 2012.  In fact, to account for the electoral college, in national head-on-head polls, you would have to subtract at least 4% from Clinton's total in order to determine where the race really stands.

And this is assuming polls which rely on 2008 and 2012 demographic models are remotely accurate, which they are not.  It's also assuming that polls (like Monmouth) which show 9% more Democrats than Republican (although the numbers are about equal) are not deliberately slanted, which is certainly also not true.

In 1996, when Pat Buchanan won the New Hampshire primary (and I was his chairman), the same unreliable polls (WMUR) which are now being bandied about showed him in single digits, until immediately before the election.

Similarly, during the Virginia McAuliffe/Cuccinelli gubernatorial race, the same polls which now show Trump losing that state (e.g., Reuters, Washington Post, etc.) showed Cuccinelli losing by up to 17 points.  Cuccinelli lost that race in a squeaker -- after Republicans largely gave up on him.

Second, in order to be successful, all Trump has to do is win (1) 24 traditionally "red" states, plus (2) Florida, with a 1-point spread, (3) Ohio, with a 4-point spread, and (4) (A) Pennsylvania, (B) Virginia and New Hampshire, (C) Virginia and Iowa, etc.

This week -- the week of Clinton's post-convention apogee -- Trump is within the margin-of-error (or better) in all of these states except Pennsylvania (or its substitutes).  And these polls will inevitably look better for Trump as ISIS attacks and Wikileaks continue to eat into Clinton's narrative.

And, in the three swing states, Clinton has four system problems:  guns, coal, Cuba, and trade.

Third, Clinton has spent enormous amounts of ad money early in the election, even though the general thinking is that the effects of this spending is transitory.

The exception was 2012, when June spending was used to "define" a relatively unknown Romney.  But neither Clinton nor Trump has been a "blank slate" for decades.

SUMMARY

When a front-page "news" article in the New York Times argues that the Times should abandon its policy of news objectivity (!!!) because of the importance of this election, it tells you something about the rest of the "puppet press's" "news" coverage.  And the most important lie the press can make is the lie that "it's hopeless."  They have run this playbook before with Netanyahu, Cameron, and Brexit, however, and phony polls are not self-executing.  They work only if the victims "buy into" their narrative.

Why should we do that?


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; dsj02; elections; freedomvsocialism; hillary; trump
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To: Reily

Are the McDonnells still together?


61 posted on 08/13/2016 3:06:52 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Trump-Pence, Kelli Ward 2016)
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To: Kaslin
What is the "Todd Akin playbook"? It works like this: The Left takes a small misstep by a Republican candidate and trumpets it as though it was the most execrable error in the history of man.

Tragically we see this same behavior here on FR over and over and over and over. The leftist "infiltraitors" combine with the pathetic snowflakes living in mama's basement to microscope a Trump statement, and shout that IT'S THE END! Makes me sick.


62 posted on 08/13/2016 3:12:41 PM PDT by 867V309 (It's over. It's over now.)
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To: arl295

I think that hillary is vulnerable in nearly every state she lost the primary. That includes Michigan.

I think that Trump/Pence should hit the following states on a weekly basis:

Wisconsin and Michigan
Ohio and Pennsylvania
New Jersey and New York
North Carolina and Virginia
Iowa and Missouri
Colorado and Nevada

This election is just under 90 days away; long time. It will be about turnout. Hitting these states would not only show confidence but also scare the libs and MSM indicating that Trump/Pence have internals that are promising.

Lastly, look what happened in the governor’s races in Mass and Maryland in 2014. The dem was comfortably ahead in the polls a month out....only to lose. These are dem strongholds and that should have never happened.

It is about turnout. Hillary has no turnout in here rallies. This will eventually translate to votes.


63 posted on 08/13/2016 3:48:37 PM PDT by TMA62 (Al Sharpton - The North Korea of race relations)
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To: TMA62

You left off FL and NH.


64 posted on 08/13/2016 4:13:39 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Trump-Pence, Kelli Ward 2016)
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To: TMA62

No, backers of Mrs. Bill do not go to political rallies. They have zero interest in these. But they will be out in force for Mrs. Bill on Nov. 8.


65 posted on 08/13/2016 4:14:36 PM PDT by Theodore R. (Trump-Pence, Kelli Ward 2016)
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To: Theodore R.
No, backers of Mrs. Bill do not go to political rallies. They have zero interest in these. But they will be out in force for Mrs. Bill on Nov. 8.

They've embraced the suck.

66 posted on 08/13/2016 4:15:32 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: arl295

It is better the democrats slurp up Hillary is winning. We need as many of them not showing up to vote because they think they have it in the bag.


67 posted on 08/13/2016 4:21:23 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: COBOL2Java

Oh, she’ll endure the riggers

except for rigger mortis...


68 posted on 08/13/2016 4:30:41 PM PDT by IrishBrigade
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To: arl295
Northern VA is inside the DC bubble, just like part of MD is. State capitals and anything within the DC bubble will always go for the democrat crowd because their union backs the democrats as the best way to keep expanding government employee numbers, wages, and power. You'll also notice that State capitals and the DC bubble are where there are still nice, safe, busy, malls.

For government employees, the economy is always booming.

69 posted on 08/13/2016 5:42:57 PM PDT by Rashputin (Jesus Christ doesn't evacuate His troops, He leads them to victory !!)
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To: LS

I really hope someone gets the ground game started.


70 posted on 08/13/2016 6:02:48 PM PDT by MattinNJ (It's over Johnny. The America you knew is gone. Denial serves no purpose.)
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To: Reily

Cunecelli was ashamed to admit he was pro-life. He was a bad candidate.


71 posted on 08/13/2016 6:31:39 PM PDT by NKP_Vet (In matters of style, swim with the current; in matters of principle,stand like a rock ~ T, Jefferson)
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To: Theodore R.
Don't know. I know several Va GOP’ers who put McDonnell's problems squarely on his wife. They say she had a severe “keeping-up-with-the-Jones” problem.
72 posted on 08/13/2016 6:42:46 PM PDT by Reily
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To: Kaslin

Maybe not. But the Democrat Party can steal it for her if given the chance.


73 posted on 08/13/2016 6:44:08 PM PDT by sport
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To: MattinNJ
He’s right. This election will come down to under 500.000 votes in a handful of counties

Which is why fraud is so easy to pull off.

74 posted on 08/13/2016 6:59:07 PM PDT by itsahoot (GOP says, Vote Trump. But if your principles won't let you, Hillary is OK.)
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To: magua
She will not endure the riggers of the next three months.

She doesn't have to, it is not about Hillary winning, but Trump being turned into a unelectable lunatic and the GOP is helping them.

75 posted on 08/13/2016 7:02:24 PM PDT by itsahoot (GOP says, Vote Trump. But if your principles won't let you, Hillary is OK.)
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To: magua
She will not endure the riggers of the next three months.

The riggers are her only hope.


The riggers

76 posted on 08/13/2016 7:21:40 PM PDT by cynwoody
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To: Kaslin


77 posted on 08/13/2016 7:28:39 PM PDT by JoeProBono (SOME IMAGES MAY BE DISTURBING VIEWER DISCRETION IS ADVISED;-{)
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To: MattinNJ

Don’t know what you’re worried about. Trump has opened offices in all 50 states, 15 offices in OH and a bunch in FL and NC.


78 posted on 08/13/2016 7:30:22 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: arl295

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/2955102/posts?page=1

When you say this it reminded me of this thread. Absolutely frightening.


79 posted on 08/13/2016 9:12:56 PM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: Kaslin

Be Firm ,Resolute
and Do Not fall for
Their Narrative!


80 posted on 08/13/2016 9:28:33 PM PDT by Big Red Badger (UNSCANABLE in an IDIOCRACY!)
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