I think had Mel survived the plane crash, he still would’ve lost to then-Sen. Ashcroft (and given that Ashcroft was a key to the Senate GOP majority, he wouldn’t have then been selected to be Attorney General). I’d have been surprised if Kerry had picked Carnahan to be his running mate 4 years out of office over the more attractive “Breck Girl” Edwards (and Edwards came from NC, which has more ECs than MO, and presumably could’ve put the state in the Dem column, as it did go briefly Dem in ‘08, although solely because of Bob Barr running Libertarian).
Federally, Presidentially and legislatively, Missouri is solidly Republican (I don’t call that “Red”, that’s a deliberate media newspeak color switcheroo from 2000 to disassociate the Dems from their true nature - Red is the historic color of radical leftism (Communism/Socialism/Nazism). Blue is the proper color of the GOP, which should be used every time someone erroneously claims the “Red” for the GOP, which grates on me no end for its offensiveness). Frustratingly, the state votes wrong for state offices. Other than the late Tom Schweich for Auditor (who should’ve been enjoying a primary victory for Governor and an easy romp over Koster), only Peter Kinder has had any luck statewide.
It’s worth noting that in 28 years, only Ashcroft (in 1988) and Matt Blunt (in 2004) has the GOP won the Governorship, not since 1988 and lastly in 2000 have they won Sec of State (Roy Blunt the first time and Matt the second time), not since William Webster in 1988 have they won Attorney General (and Webster’s criminal screw-up paved the way for Mel Carnahan’s Gubernatorial victory in ‘92), and like the Governorship, only Wendell Bailey (in ‘88) and Sarah Steelman (in ‘04) won State Treasurer. To be sure, a terrible record for all these offices at a time when the state has huge GOP legislative majorities. That only Kinder has a statewide office at present (and by a thin-as-a-nail margin) is a disgrace. The Dems should’ve died there after the ‘90s. Consider how strongly the GOP dominated statewide offices in the 1980s even when they were underperforming for Congressional seats and a decided minority in the legislature from 1931 until 2001/03.
IIRC that SOB Carnahan was trailing (narrowly but trailing) while he was alive, he pulled ahead after he croaked. That says something very...not good about human nature. I still SHM at that race. I think his damn ghost is still haunting the seat. Talent got it from his damn widow but then he ‘lost’ in 2006 and then Akin’s epic fail gave away a certain win. Ugh. That B McCrapskull needs to GO in 2018.
Presuming he did live and was elected and chosen as Kerry’s running mate, I doubt he’d have tipped the state to him. He’d have helped, but not enough. All Edwards did in NC was stop Bush from gaining.
Strange anomalies in MO politics, I can’t explain it. Even though it’s lean GOP for President now it would probably help to move all the statewide offices to the midterms. It would probably help in WV too despite it now being SAFE Republican for President.