Posted on 08/01/2016 8:07:08 AM PDT by usafa92
Hillary Clinton has received a bump in support after the Democratic convention and has now pulled ahead of Donald Trump.
Forty-six percent of voters nationwide say they'll vote for Clinton in November, while 39 percent say they'll back Trump. The race was tied last week after the Republican convention. Clinton led by a similar margin in June. Clinton got a four-point bounce after her party's convention, compared to a two-point bump for Trump after his convention.
When compared to previous Democratic presidential nominees, Clinton's bounce is similar to those President Obama got in 2012 and 2008, but short of the 13-point bounce her husband, Bill Clinton, received in 1992. In 2000, support for Al Gore rose 10 points after the Democratic convention, but he went on to lose a close race that fall.
When leaners are included - voters who are undecided when initially asked their vote preference but lean toward a candidate - Clinton leads Trump by six points. Clinton also retains her lead when Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson is added. Voters who back a candidate remain firm in their support. Nine in 10 Clinton and Trump voters say their minds are made up about their candidate.
In the wake of the Democratic convention, positive views of Hillary Clinton have risen five points among registered voters, from 31 percent a week ago to 36 percent today. Unfavorable views of Hillary Clinton have dropped six points: from 56 percent to 50 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at cbsnews.com ...
I agree. What is interesting is that it’s for entirely different reasons. I think there’s a huge pool of people that secretly like many things DJT sys, they just won’t admit it.
Everyone hates Hillary.
...also meant to point out that the DNC convention had poor viewership - so how can there be a big bounce?
They push these junk polls because of the voter fraud that surely is going to follow
I agree. What is interesting is that it’s for entirely different reasons. I think there’s a huge pool of people that secretly like many things DJT sys, they just won’t admit it.
Everyone hates Hillary.
...also meant to point out that the DNC convention had poor viewership - so how can there be a big bounce?
I do agree with that. There may be a lot of Trump voters who will never admit it, although that’s a scary place for a campaign to live.
Yes, let’s base everything on a single poll and not the rest showing a virtual tie or Hillary in the lead. I read a lot of the same nonsense during 2008 and 2012, and that turned out poorly both times.
This poll is bogus. As you posted they sampled
26% Republican
33% Democrat
40% Independent
according to Gallup July 2016 the present mix is
28% Rep
28% Dem
42% Ind
Any poll that does not publish all the internals of the poll and the methodology of the poll is not to be believed. It is nothing but political theater designed not to inform the public but to mislead the public.
Also, 19% were not even registered. This automatically makes the poll not valid. If they have declined to register by now most will not. In fact many of those unregistered may not be able to vote legally due to alien status. However, this group will tilt strongly to Clinton. This also makes the poll totally invalid.
So much is unknown.
I went to the Dornsife poll that’s prominent on FR these days and shows Trump winning.
I have to register to get their data. I don’t feel like it today, but I’ll probably do it in the near future.
I fear false data about Trump as much as about the dems. Either one hurts.
1. Raise expectations and then pull out the rug = demoralization.
2. Have you candidate said to be far behind = demoralization.
3. A supposedly close race in which the opponent begins to pull away = demoralization.
All seem designed to depress voter turnout, so your radar is taking you correctly to the turnout models.
Only because so many of our voters are STOOOOPID enough to buy that faux-patriotism on the last day.
4 point bump for the pantsuit speech? Someone’s gotten into the funny brownies again...
There was an article about how the questions were changed after the RNC so that Hillary would get a boost. The MSM is the propaganda wing of the DNC.
Voter Fruad isn’t going to work this time around. Trump’s guys like Stone and Manafort will pull all the dirty tricks to stop the Fraud machine just as they did for Reagan. The GOP has igonored voter fruad for years now, that’s about to end.
Agree. It smacks of Zogby in, I think, 2000.
However, remember this. In almost every election, there is one “outlier” poll-—Zogby in 1996 (?), Rasmussen (I think in 2000), and Silver in 2008 which comes out of the blue and is 100% accurate. It wouldn’t surprise me if this USC poll, this cycle, is “the” poll.
” Trump’s guys like Stone and Manafort will pull all the dirty tricks to stop the Fraud machine just as they did for Reagan.”
How they going to prevent the Diebold voting machine fraud?
“Yes, let’s base everything on a single poll and not the rest showing a virtual tie or Hillary in the lead. “
I’m not basing anything on one poll. In fact, I think polling has become simply another propaganda tool of the Left. My “poll” is the turnout and “energy” at Trump v. Hitlary rallies. The polls today are simply another “mechaism” to try and influence voters before the fact. But in looking as USC/Dornsife, I see a very large sample size and a rolling average that produces what a resaonable person would expect as the process moves along. Trump got a bounce, Hitlary got a small bounce, and now it’s on to the “debates.” The only way that Hitlary gets elected is if she doesn’t have to campaign publically. To see, and hear her is to loathe her.
I don’t know. But they know about it and they are resourceful guys. Remember it was Mafafort that organized the destruction of #nevertrumpers after they stole nearly half the deligates. They’ll figure something out.
I predicted this—the MSM will boost her numbers as long as they can to “Prove” she will beat Trump-—Then when the DNC/GOPe rig the election—people will believe Trump Lost (Remember Nixon beat Kennedy but the election was rigged). The DNC live in a fantasy world (publically) so they can keep power! And keep the money—After her first Term—Hillary will be the richest woman on planet earth.
For the record, I am absolutely 110% hard core supporting Trump.
I don’t want to sound like a concern troll but...didn’t we say this to ourselves over and over in 2012? We kept telling ourselves the polls were skewed and biased then Election Night 2012 they may have been a little biased but in the end Obama unfortunately won.
I have no doubt Trump is leading in this particular poll and it actually seems to be one of the more scientific, unbiased polls. However there are quite a number of other polls both national and state by state that show Hillary ahead. I guess my point is that I’m already starting to see the same denial(s) about the polls now that I saw so much of in 2012.
Now the good news is that 1.) Trump has and will fight unlike most any other gop-e would’ve as witnessed in the most recent attempted scandal of the Muslim soldier’s father. I trust Trump’s instincts and game plan unlike again most gop-e candidates in years past. 2.) Unlike past years there should be enough time since the conventions were so early this year to plan/correct/adjust to the dems and their media allies. 3.) Also don’t forget the Wikileaks scandal.
So I’m not saying we should feel depressed but I just don’t want to repeat the same mistakes from 2008 and especially 2012 when we acted believing the country wouldn’t re-elect Obama. It’s obvious they did and by extension would elect Hillary so we have to accept that reality and not assume the country wouldn’t vote for her just because and act accordingly so that she isn’t really elected.
“I have no doubt Trump is leading in this particular poll and it actually seems to be one of the more scientific, unbiased polls.
‘
Ooops!
Sorry correct myself “one of the more unscientific, biased polls.
Note to self: CBS polls are as bad as NBC polls (if not worse)
Here are my poll photos; case closed!!!
The Communist Brainwashing System.
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