Posted on 07/25/2016 7:17:49 AM PDT by profit_guy
And I assume this is before the full effect of the DNC email hack..........
Let’s see if DWS’s first mission on the HRC campaign is to write the NY Times and complain that this negativity has got to stop . . .
I like Nate a lot from a data science perspective. He’s done some amazing stuff. But this is nuts...
"However, in his polls-only forecast and in his polls-plus forecast, Clinton was still favored to come out on top. In the polls-only model, Clinton had a 53.7% chance of winning while in the polls-plus model, Silver gave Clinton a 58.2% chance of winning in November. But those numbers are a drastic drop off from where they recently were, hovering around 80%."
As they say here often, the trend it looking good. And with this email debacle... who knows...
Your title is incorrect—he is still forecasting Clinton to win in November, just saying that Trump would be more likely to win if the election were held today.
Why does it say Hillary 53.7/ Trump 46.2 when I click the link?
Why does it say Hillary 53.7/ Trump 46.2 when I click the link?
Now I am worried! This guy has a spotty history, but if it makes the Liberals so sad they don’t vote. GREAT!
Hillary drawing the firewall at Virginia is like WWII Germany drawing a line at the outskirts of Berlin. If they are they worried about Virginia, they are in trouble.
But we should anticipate a bounce back within a week when the post DNC convention polls start to roll in with most of these polls adding a little Secret Hillary Sauce.
This guy has a spotty history,
Rasmussen wishes they could be as spotty...
That’s Silver’s win probability. Trump leads in 538’s Nowcast.
This is not good considering how wrong he has been this election cycle :p
Though, let’s hope it is a return to form :)
It is chance to win, not percentage of electoral or public votes.
Isn’t Silver a liberal?
So—Nate Silver is an imbecile until he comes out with data we like?
Thanks
The take-a-way point is the trend - positive for Trump and not so much for Comrade Hellry.
Add the coming fallout of the Wikileaks emails, the trend will increase exponentially.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.