A lot of people are down on NH, especially residents. I’m hearing the same about VA. But treating either of them like they’re practically hopeless and doomed is very much an overreaction if you ask me.
I would point out NH gave Romney 46.4%, which was less than 1 point less than the 47.15% he got nationwide.
McCain got 44.52% in NH, to 45.60% nationwide.
So it trended ever so slightly in the right direction and remained only a little to the left of the nationwide average. A Republican victory of any significant size would very likely include it, I wouldn’t expect it to be more than a couple points less Republican than nation at large this time.
One thing though is that fewer people are spitting tickets, so even mild rat win for President have helped them win downballot in POTUS years. They’ve done particularity well winning gubernatorial elections lately, aside from one GOP win in 2002 they’ve had a chokehold on the office since Shaheen, I hope that changes this year.
Despite Maine electing a Republican Governor (with under 50%) and a Republican Congressman (with under 50%) and winning the State Senate in 2014 (and both houses in 2010) the performance at the POTUS level has been pretty stinky and a good 4-5 points worse than NH. It actually trended Obama in 2012 and NH trended Romney.
I do think the GOP has a good shot at governor this year in NH. The democrats run, like the GOP, against a state sales tax or income tax thus misting the differences between the 2 parties. If Ayotte can regain her base it might pull up the ticket, but the locals are not pleased with her.