Posted on 06/16/2016 9:13:17 AM PDT by LS
May/June polls are quite often predictive in that the leader is often the loser in November. At the very least, they were way, way off:
In June 2012, Obama led Romney by 5 but Romney surged into a lead in October, then two ties. Final margin? 4 (Plus 1 swing to the GOP)
In May 2008, John McCain led Obama by 6, yet within a few weeks Obama led McCain by 9-—a 15 point swing. (Plus Plus 15 swing to Dem)
In June 2004, Kerry led Bush by 6. Final margin? Bush won by 3, an error of 9 points. (Plus 9 swing to GOP)
In June 2000, Bush led Algore by 12. Final margin? Tie. (Plus 12 swing to Dem)
In June 1996, Clinton was beating Dole by 16, but the final was only 8. (+8 swing to GOP)
In June 1992, Bush led Clinton by 6 in a three-way, but when Perot dropped out in July he led by 8. Then, suddenly, Clinton shot up to a 20 point lead in July. The final was a Clinton 6-pont advantage. (Plus 12 swing to Dem, but messed up because of 17% vote for Perot)
In June of 1988, Dukakis led Bush by 17 in two different polls-—and ended up losing by 17 (Plus 34 point GOP).
In June of 1984, Reagan led Mon-Dull by 9 . . . but ended up winning by 18-—double the polling estimate (Plus 9 GOP).
In June 1980, Jimmy Carter led Reagan by 7, but lost by 10 (Plus 17 GOP).
In June 1976, Carter led Ford by 18, but the final was 2 and I think had the race gone on one more month Carter would have lost. (Plus 16 GOP)
In June 1972 Nixon led McGovern by 16-—but won by 23 (plus 7 GOP)
In June 1968, Humphrey led Nixon by 5, but lost in a tie (Plus 5 GOP).
June 1964: Everyone remembers the Goldwater blowout, right? 23? Except in June LBJ was beating him by 56 (GOP gain of 32)
June 1960: Although JFK led by 4 in June 1960, it was a popular vote tie (Plus 4 GOP).
June 1956: Likewise Ike won reelection by 17 . . . but had led in June by 27. (Plus 10 for Dems)
June 1952: It was worse---Ike led by 28 in June, but won by only 11, a rather massive 17 point error (Plus 17 for Dems)
In the 11 presidential elections since 1952, the GOP has been underpolled 6 times, Democrats 5 (with one involving a strong third party candidate). The GOP candidates, on average were underpolled by 22.5 points, but Dem underpolling only averaged 13.2, and again, one of those was a "joker" race with a strong third party candidate.
The bottom line is that June polls are slightly more likely to tell us who will lose in November by who is ahead in June. Moreover, we see a much heavier underpolling of Republicans across the board, by a margin of almost 10 points. Even when Republicans lose, they do far better in November than in June.
“Yet Trump gets more people to his gatherings. That beats any polls.”
Romney was getting big crowds down the stretch in 2012 too.
Trump does have a base that is enthusiastic about him. But if everyone else hates him more than Hillary, he’s in trouble.
Bottom line for me is I will hope Trump wins, but I full expect Hillary to win now seeing how Americans have reacted more in support with 0bama than Trump on the Islamic attack.
I will not trust the American people until they show they can do right and elect Trump.
The reality is that Obama’s and Clinton’s poor leadership skills showed what happened a few days ago. Also people will lie about their true intentions and in reality do support Trump. Also I see a lot of poll fraud right now.
The one big worry I do have is massive voter fraud which the Dems are good at.
Trump is winning because he is losing.
Pretty much the record of history at this point, yeah.
June losers tend to be November winners, and Republicans who trail in June tend to pick up a LOT more ground than Dems.
In short, Cankles is in huge trouble and it is, in fact, a very big Electoral College victory for Trump in the works.
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