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“Why? In Manafort’s summary: Trump will remain Trump.

He may moderate a few views — think Muslims — but he won’t and doesn’t need to back down on anything. He probably won’t pick a woman or a member of a minority group as a running mate because that would be “pandering.” He won’t win George W. Bush’s levels of Latino support, but he will pick up enough Hispanic votes in key swing states. He won’t get the Bush family’s support and doesn’t want it. Trump just has to be presidential enough in the first debate (no body parts mentioned), pick an experienced running mate, and run Clinton into the ground as a corrupt version of Barack Obama.

He’ll win with white men and women, plus just enough of everyone else. Simple.”

This is a professional look at the race by a professional. Paul Manafort spells out how and why Trump will win. It’s worth reading the whole thing.

The ban on Muslims
The Wall
Tax Returns
VP pick
The GOP
Filling the chair
Attacking Hillary

Latino voters...

this really is an eye opener...“The national polls are distorted,” Manafort said. “To get a national sample they rely too much on Hispanics from New York and California, which is where large populations are, but also where most of the radical Hispanics are.”

“But if you look at Hispanics in states such as Ohio, Pennsylvania and even Florida, you see a different picture. We’re going to target Hispanic voters in those and other swing states.”

“The message is going to be jobs, national security, terrorism, family values and education,” he said. “In that order.” “Their concerns are the same as the white working families.”

So his candidate doesn’t need 40 percent of Latino voters nationwide. “If we get into the high 20s in those states with Hispanics, we will win them, and in Florida we can do even better if we do what we need to do in the Cuban community.”

The Women: “Our numbers even now are not that far out of whack,” Manafort said. “We’re down 12 among women, but up 20 among men.”

“Hillary is the one who’s got a gender gap. And while we are behind among women over all, we’re ahead among white women even now. We’ll get some black and Hispanic women as we go along.”

How He’ll Campaign: “We’ll continue the rallies. That is Trump’s brand. We’ll do the broad themes at the big rallies. No one wants to change that.”

But, Manafort added, the campaign will assemble a state-of-the-art social media and on-the-ground operation.

“He doesn’t want to spend the money on a big national campaign structure. He hears a figure like $500 million and says, ‘These are all people who are going to get rich.’ But I have reassured him that it will be a very lean operation.”

‘Filling The Chair’: “There are two main challenges. One is to make the American people look at him and say, ‘He can fill the chair.’”

“Does he know enough? Yes, because he knows he has more to learn. And he is constantly doing that.” Trump doesn’t read briefing papers, but he is a magnet for information, Manafort said. “He reads the newspapers, and he talks on the phone and to office visitors in a never-ending stream. You’re sitting there in his office and you realize that he is constantly picking up stuff as he goes.” “We have all this survey research, but he does his own soundings all the time, all day every day. And he’s more accurate,” Manafort said.

The first presidential debate will be key. Needless to say, Trump won’t hesitate to attack Clinton in that and other debates. Attack is and has always been his only mode.

“The idea of going at her doesn’t have to change,” said Manafort. “But it will matter how he says it.”

No Bushes: “I think we’ll get other people coming aboard eventually, but probably not the Bushes — and Trump can leave them alone,” said Manafort. “And we’re going to be above 90 percent Republican support without them.”

“People don’t want dynasties. They want change.”