I suspect her support is concentrated in CA, NY, and IL. If the national poll is close, then she is losing.
Bingo!
“...support concentrated ion NY ...”
Trump will take New York State easily. He has a yuuuuge New York City following in the outer boroughs, Staten Island, Nassau, Suffolk, Westchester - the only ones voting for Hillary will be the upper west side liberals and they will be outnumbered.
Upstate will go Trump - Binghamton, Buffalo, Rochester - I are talking about the union type cross over dems who can’t stand Hillary at this point. The same demographic that is voing over in PA - it will happen her e in New York.
Hippie valley (Ithaca/Cornell) will stay liberal but they love Bernie!