[circlecity]

"While most scientists believe the probability of a major eruption is very small"

Is this true? I always heard the probability of a major eruption here is virtually certain, we just don't know when it will happen - it could happen next month or it could happen 1,000 years from now.

[baltimorepoet]

"While most scientists believe the probability of a major eruption is very small" Is this true? I always heard the probability of a major eruption here is virtually certain, we just don't know when it will happen - it could happen next month or it could happen 1,000 years from now.

All true.

The given probability of it erupting on a given year is small, given the time frame in which it will eventually erupt.

[Red Badger]

Small probability it will be any time soon, but not ZERO.....................

[John W]

I think they divide number of instances by infinity then they can assure us nothing to see here, just move along and behave. Crowd control is always more of an issue for the authorities than just about anything else.

[pfflier]

"While most scientists believe the probability of a major eruption is very small"

Well we know how they have nailed the climate change thing. We have seen the poles disappear, hurricanes devastate the gulf and atlantic coast, huge megastorms sucking up metro areas in force 6-7-8 tornadoes, coastal cities like Miami and NYC underwater and the disappearance of snow forever.

Ummm right??

[tacticalogic]

always heard the probability of a major eruption here is virtually certain

The hot spot is moving NorthWest, toward the Bighorn mountains. I've heard some scientists posit that if it gets under the mountain range before the next major eruption, we may not see another one for a long time.