Nice try! Here is the alternative universe...
Currently, the RCP delegate race has...Trump with 745, Cruz with 555, Rubio with 171, Kasich with 143, and 89 uncommitted...hope we can at least agree on this snapshot!
There are a few problems with the RedStateWatcher analysis...
First, 54 of the 71 PA delegates will be unbound going into Cleveland, so we will not know if Trump has 40 votes until the 1st ballot vote. Unbound means uncertain!
Second, there is no polling available for Indiana and a number of other states (WA, OR, NM). So. these state may go either way at this point!
Cruz will be the 1st candidate coming this week in the semi-WTA Hoosier state. I doubt that Trump will romp here in this very conservative, religious state! I can easily see Cruz, not Trump, winning 40+ delegates here!
So, this is a possible scenario going into Cleveland...
The way things are going, Trump will have about 1175 declared delegates going into Cleveland (the PA and IN factors).
Cruz should have a little over 800 declared delegates going into Cleveland...that will only require him to win 255 out of the remaining 760 delegates (33%) in upcoming primaries! This is pretty close to the RedState estimate!
Rubio has 171 declared...
Kasich has 143, will likely end up with about 150 declared...
The RNC has about 89 undeclared, will likely have about 150 undeclared...
At Cleveland, alliances are made to deny Trump on the first ballot...
800+171+150+150=1,271....President Cruz!
Winner, Winner, Chicken Dinner!
Do you really believe the Republican party will let Ted Cruz become their candidate? See my tagline.
At Cleveland, alliances are made to deny Trump on the first ballot...
800+171+150+150=1,271....GOPE Nominee Cruz!
Who goes down to defeat taking large numbers of Senators and Congressmen with him as the voters revolt and burn the GOP to the ground.
Bwahahah, President Cruz??
Not going to happen, never.
He just doesn’t have ‘it’ -
But the elites want a paper tiger up against hillary, so they’ll give us some useless loser to vote for...or not vote, as the case will be.