Posted on 04/14/2016 10:18:55 AM PDT by Kaslin
So, every pundit east of Wisconsin is talking New York and delegate math. Trump is still grousing about gestapo-land, already taking a victory lap in his Democrat-dominated Empire State. But does it really all matter? Has something happened with the other top candidate? Yes, Cruz is sharp, expert at the delegate process, but there is something more. Did he actually get lift off a week ago, and the moment passed so fast media missed it? I think so. I think we got break out by the guy long known as a talented Supreme Court litigator turned politician. Something has changed. Something has definitely changed in the heartland over the past ten days.
Maybe it is just spring arriving, maybe quickening pulses in newly important States, maybe just a “feeling” that closure is approaching – but something is suddenly different. Like the moment fog lifts, cement hardens or a recipe gels, something has changed. When exactly is not clear, but the presence of something new is in the air. Some say it is a new confidence and personal peace in Cruz. Some say it was “The Heidi Moment.”
On the evening of April 5th, after a stunning comeback in Wisconsin, Ted Cruz delivered the best speech of his campaign. The speech, which insiders indicate he wrote himself, was Reagan-like. Cruz projected genuine optimism, hope of a rare and unifying sort, the kind that awakens a great Nation to its better nature. He held forth a national vision, spoke inclusively, honored past competitors, and quoted incisively from John F. Kennedy and Winston Churchill.
Here, at last, was a presidential candidate becoming more relaxed, somehow taller, stronger in timber and magnanimous. “We are not here to curse the darkness, but to light the candle that will light the way out of darkness,” he credited to Kennedy. “We once again have hope for the future,” he nodded to Churchill.
What caused that turn of sentiment, shift in cadence, and elevation of tone? On the numbers, Wisconsin’s remarkable turnaround, and that day’s foreseeable echo into the future, was part of it. Down by 10 points two weeks prior, Cruz had never lost hope or focus. He overcame the deficit to post a 48 percent to 35 percent victory – shocking. This certainly helped.
But was that whopping turnaround cause or effect? And was there something else? Something beyond Wisconsin is afoot. With professionalism and attention to detail, Cruz won 69 percent of Utah’s vote, garnering all delegates. He worked similar magic in North Dakota, securing 18 of 19 delegates. In a workmanlike way, he won all of Colorado’s delegates. So, in a matter of days, he secured walk-off victories in four states, with widely diverging demographics. Maybe that is part of the shift.
Maybe it was the way he pivoted so smoothly into general election formation, at the close of his Wisconsin speech. He challenged Hillary Clinton on terms that will keep her awake nights, if she is not already sleepless over FBI intentions. Maybe it was the way Cruz elevated jobs and the economy, spoke convincingly of growth, reduced regulation, lower taxes that border security – inspiring those who put those issues tops. Or maybe it was something else altogether, the injection of something new.
Whatever the cause of this inflection point in mood toward Cruz, Trump is deeply uneasy. He struck back in ways reminiscent of a wheel spinning in mud, spraying the field with accusations of Cruz being part of “The Establishment,” then a “Trojan Horse used by the Establishment,” then a favored son in these four states.
Getting little traction in this stretch, Trump switched up his staff, sidelined his campaign manager, and derided Republican State parties, the Republican National Committee and the long-established delegate system as “crooked” and “rigged” against him, although many states have used their system for decades, and all rules were announced last summer, if not before.
No, something else is afoot. Cruz is proving himself a consummate, uniquely capable fighter, student of the rules, master of complex processes. And the world is a complex place. By contrast, gnawing doubts are eating at the Trump constituency. Trump supporters are beginning to see the candidate as not ready to lead, unable to digest a modestly complex set of rules, even when his own political fortunes depend on it. He is openly stumbling. Worse, he is flailing about and blaming others, his team, his opponents, his party, state parties, the state by state voters, the media, talk radio, the convention process – everyone but himself.
There is one last element in play, and it is a big one. To understand this element, which is assisting the swell to Cruz, one must watch that Cruz victory speech in Wisconsin. The speech was not Reagan at the Berlin Wall or Normandy, but it harkened to a better time, one in which Americans were “free to choose,” openly patriotic, more secure and more free, sure-footed and unafraid to be themselves, “a beacon on the Hill.” The speech appealed to Reagan Democrats and working Americans, but there was more. Heidi Cruz.
What happened that night – and is likely to happen in weeks ahead – is that a great candidate came into his own. And his wife, a working mother and professional, confident, full of character and caring, utterly captured the crowd. When Ted Cruz lovingly introduced his wife as his “best friend,” and spontaneously asked the crowd if she would not make a wonderful First Lady, the place exploded. That kind of reaction to a future First Lady has not shown itself for years. Maybe it was the attacks by Trump on women, including Heidi. Maybe it was her charm, but those moments are rare in politics.
What does “The Heidi moment” mean? A lot. It means that Americans – that night and in the weeks ahead – are waking up to team, a husband and wife of enormous depth, intelligence, character and good will. Ted Cruz is more than a cogent debater and smart strategist, presidential and ready for battle. Heidi Cruz is more than a thoughtful Mom, wife and professional woman. The two of them, together, are what we – as Americans – have been hoping on. When the final chapter of this race is written, New York will not matter. The inflection point of the race was that speech, that night in Wisconsin.
Er, yes.
I’ve run the numbers a lot. With even conservative splits Trump gets to 1260.
Easy: WINNER!!
Rush, a Cruz fanboy, admitted today that Cruz can’t suffer one single 3rd place finish, and right now he is headed for at least two-—NY and MD.
Wow, wow, wow....
Look, I give Cruz and Jeb kudos for WI, the Establishment Republican machine there is well organized and battle tested, if there was a place that was going to throw a win Cruz’s way that wasn’t a western state, Wisconsin was the most likely to do it. I stated that many many times.
I also believe Trump self inflicted a wound with the twitter pic comparing Mrs. Cruz to Mrs. Trump... that was silly and probably turned every average or less looking woman against him in the state.. which is by definition most women, and really was just a stupid thing to do.
With that said however, Cruz didn’t prove anything in WI about himself, what was proven in Wisconsin was the party machine is strong and organized there, probably more so than any other state in the union. Cruz was indeed the beneficiary of that in a big way, but it didn’t prove anything about Cruz as a candidate.
Cruz is walking into a buzz saw, he’s going to be crushed in NY... which one could just write off as eh, its Trump’s home state.... But Cruz Couldn’t care 50% of his home state, in fact, didn’t get 44% of the vote. Cruz is not only going to lose NY big, but quite possibly come in third place with under 20% of the vote.
Again, that could be written off as eh, it’s Trump home state...
The problem is, Cruz is going to get devastated throughout the north east and mid atlantic... NY is not the anomaly. Yes Trump may get a higher percentage of overall votes in NY than the other states, but reality is Cruz will be coming in 3rd as often as not in the remaining states there.
It is insane, certifiably insane that the party would ever consider giving the nomination to a person who could not win a primary contest of not east of the mississippi. If Trump has proven anything this cycle its that his support is broad... The only states that have shown any consistency to vote for Cruz are low population western states where caucuses have selected the winner and not the general electorate.
Any claim of momentum for Cruz will be gone after the 26th... when Trump will literally sweep 5 straight contests, following his NY routing a week earlier. Not only will Trump sweep them, but Cruz will wind up in 3rd behind Kasich as often as not in those contests as well.
There are 3 states left that Cruz should win, SD, MO and NE.... The last hope for an upset where anyone actually votes would be Indiana, and that “hope” for an upset is misplaced... The logic saying IN could go Cruz because WI did ignores the real reason Cruz won WI... which was the GOPe machine there... nothing like that exists anywhere else left on the map. JEB and the GOPe can’t help Cruz win IN.
Kudos to Cruz, JEB et all for the win in WI, but any attempt to claim that victory was not a result of the GOPE machine there, and somehow a result of Cruz as a candidate suddenly becoming a great candidate is denial.
CO killed him as being sleazy, he’s now down to 3rd place in upcoming states which is not a position to be in.
Cruz isn’t getting 13 out of New York.
Cruz must get above 20% to even be eligible for a delegate and at the same timeTrump must be under 50% for that to happen... combine that with Cruz is polling below Kasich its wishful thinking to believe Cruz can get anything but a smattering of delegates.
He’s neck and neck in most polls with Kasich in PA as well..
I’ve said this for a while, Cruz will wind up 3rd as often as second in the remaining states in northeast/mid atlantic/rustbelt states.
The WI win was the result of a well organized, battle proved GOPe machine in WI, nothing more.. Cruz has not turned any corner... he’s got 3 states left he will likely win, MO,NE & SD... the rest he loses, and many of them he is going to lose big.
The last place on the map for an upset would be IN, and the hopes of that are only because he performed in WI, and those making that argument are refusing to understand the GOPe machine gave him the win in WI... not Cruz’s message or campaign. No such machine exists in IN... So I wouldn’t hold my breath on that happening.
Actually, Heidi was the personal assistant to the Managing Director of Goldman Sachs and President of the World Bank, Robert Zoelick, who was in charge of lobbying to destroy our borders through the World Trade Organization, The Council on Foreign Relations, the Trilateral Commission, and The Project for the New American Century, through pushing Climate Change and Lower Carbon Growth to justify weakening out eliminating our borders via the creation of the North American Union (NAU).
Heidi is a traitor.
Cruz was dead long before CO.... He never had a chance in any of the states coming up... Warned it long ago, he’d come in third as often as second in the states voting between now and May 10.
Cruz has 3 places he should win left, MT, NE and SD, that’s it... the rest he will be beat solidly, and as I said, expect at least as many third place as second place finishes for him over the next few weeks.
Sorry that should be MT not MO
IN will be THE last stand to stop Trump but Cruz will be long gone as a viable candidate by then.
Should be MT not MO
How a journalist could sell-out for money like this. Regardless of one's opinion of Ted, Heidi's resume is that of the consummate Globalist.
Townhall like NR and Beck and Levin etc etc are scary---scary to think that people will either present their principles as something they aren't, or, sell those principles out for the right price.
We live in the age of lies. For the weak-souled, antidepressants have removed the effects of conscience. As a result, people everywhere commit gross lies and violations of conscience with a straight face, literally unable to even hear their consciences screaming at them.
The abuse of antidepressants are a fire burning down the world, people literally cannot feel anything anymore. There's a reason why the military won't allow anyone on them in, and why literally every single Democrat takes them. So writing articles while on them is easy, especially since editors are on them too.
IN is the last place on the map that anyone can make an serious attempt to argue Cruz won’t lose, but the reality is the basis for that argument isn’t based on the facts.
The assumption that because Cruz did well in WI that he will do well in IN because they are geographically close, is just nonsense. It denies, as I said, the fact that the GOPe machine in WI is well organized, battle hardened and was able to successfully had Cruz a big win. Kudos to Jeb and Cruz... I do mean that... if the GOP has machinations like this in all 50 states, it would be a dominant party.. but the reality is it doesn’t.
WI didn’t change the dynamic of the race, and if anything it gave those angry with the republican establishment and those hungry for a change, even more reason to vote for Trump. After WI, there is no argument left that Cruz is an outsider, and can and will effectively take on the establishment. Cruz did get a win in WI, but it also alienated more republicans from him nationally... its not a coincidence that the more Cruz has gotten in bed with the Bush family and the establishment republican machine and money men, the higher Trump’s national poll numbers have gotten.
Tuesday night will end this Cruz can win silliness, though I am sure his hard core backers will try to just spin a likely 3rd place finish with little to no delegates as “eh its Trump’s home state”, which they can console themselves with for about a week... and the night of 4/26 will put an exclamation point on it.
Momentum will be solidly back to Trump (because it never left really, just the talking heads needed to say something for 2 weeks) as this thing goes into the final stretch.
Very few of us here on FR have an understanding of the key players and key organizations that comprise the story of the truth of this election, of the elite, and of the Cruz candidacy. Very few of us on FR have an understanding of the most extremely important aspect of what's going on. You've given the dots (as I and a few others have tried to)---now it's up to people---mainly CRUZERS---to take the time to CONNECT the dots. You've given them an outline, a map, to arrive at the truth simply using the Internet.
Was the irony intentional or an accident?
In criticizing a personal attack against Heidi Cruz, I said, "Personal attacks are both unnecessary and unhelpful. Does anyone benefit other than Hillary, Bernie, Jeb, Rubio, Kasich, and others who consistently support Amnesty, who consistently support Obamacare, and who consistently support restrictions on our individual, God-given right to keep and bear arms? Decent Americans are better off with a real truce, and not just a “I’ll stop when every person who even pretends to support the other side stops” gesture toward a truce that will never happen. The nonsense is not helping us to elect the best possible conservative in November. I want 99% or more of Cruz supporters to vote Trump, when he is nominated, even if they hold their noses. In the event that Cruz wins the nomination, I want 99% or more of Trump supporters to vote Cruz, even if they hold their noses. Offending the other side does not encourage them to vote Trump (or Cruz) in November. I cannot help wondering how many of those who stir up the Trump-Cruz wars are actually paid trolls taking Jeb/Hillary/Soros money to cause trouble - not all of them but probably enough to set the toxic tone. I stand by my recurring statement: Cruz and Trump are both imperfect but they agree far more than 80% of the time (see my tagline from Ronald Reagan). They should be friends and allies, and we should treat both of them as such.
How about we ignore or even criticize personal attacks but otherwise stick to the positives of our own candidates?
I'm disappointed by all of it. Especially here on Free Republic.
I support Cruz, but will fully support voting for either Trump or Cruz come November.
Just curious: Do you support TPA? TPP? North American Union? Open borders? Unlimited immigration? I’m not going to attack or argue with anything you say. These are not trick questions. Just want some insight into the positions of one with the view you stated.
Yes and more than likely three third places and a second. Coming in third behind Kasich is the closing bell. I don’t see how he survives it.
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