Posted on 04/11/2016 9:32:26 PM PDT by AmericanInTokyo
CASPER – Study a map of presidential primary results and you’ll see Donald Trump dominating in the northeast. You’ll see him beating more established candidates in Arizona and Nevada and stunning pundits with dominance in the South.
But where you won’t see Trump winning big, or winning much at all, is in Wyoming, Utah and Idaho, three of the nation’s reddest states. There, the real estate mogul and famed reality star has struggled to connect with voters.
Trump is still the front-runner for the GOP nomination, but he has failed in the Northern Rockies. He lost to Sen. Ted Cruz in Idaho and Utah and has claimed only one delegate so far in Wyoming – the same number as U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has since dropped out. Cruz, in comparison, earned nine.
Several factors have contributed to Trump’s lack of success in the Northern Rockies, political observers say.
His top opponent, Cruz, has more often discussed issues that resonate with voters here – land issues, energy and gun rights.
Cruz also has made deeper inroads in the region. He has visited Wyoming once and will return Saturday. Trump has yet to visit.
And Trump’s brash style also may be hurting him, especially with Mormon voters who make up a sizable voting bloc.
Ground game Cruz got nine of the 12 delegates at the GOP county conventions in March and is expected to do well when the state’s final 14 are chosen Saturday at the Wyoming GOP Convention in Casper.
The Cruz campaign has been on the ground in here since October. But the Texas senator’s success in the Cowboy State is the result of more than his ground game, said Ed Buchanan, former state House speaker and chairman of Cruz’s Wyoming efforts.
“The positions that Trump has held over his entire career just don’t resonate with Wyoming voters,” Buchanan said. “I don’t think he shares the values and lifestyle of Western people. I don’t think he’s really in touch with what drives the economy out West – with agriculture, with natural resources, with energy production.”
Cruz, on the other hand, is from Texas, a state that has much in common with Wyoming, Buchanan said. And Cruz has been steadfast on the Second Amendment, which is important to Wyoming.
The senator first spoke in Wyoming, frequently treated as a flyover state for presidential elections, on Aug. 20 for a GOP fundraiser. When he returns for the state GOP convention, he will be the only major GOP candidate to make the trip.
The Trump campaign is sending Sarah Palin in his stead. And Idaho Gov. Butch Otter will speak to Republicans on behalf of Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
Libertarian streak Trump’s most intense support comes from white voters with lesser educations and lower incomes. In theory, that might help Trump with blue-collar voters – especially in parts of the state hammered by the energy downturn.
But Wyoming possesses more of a libertarian streak rather than Trump-style nationalism, said Matt Dallek, a professor in the Graduate School of Political Management at George Washington University.
“It is possible that Trump has continued to damage himself,” Dallek said. “There’s a sense that, look, we want a Republican, but it’s not necessarily Trump.”
In the Western and more conservative parts of the country, Dallek said, Trump may not be playing well to voters because of questions about his personal morality and whether he’s truly committed to limited government.
Also playing into Trump’s lack of popularity here are Mormon voters.
Nine percent of Wyomingites are members of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints, according to a recent Pew Research Center study.
Mormon voters have rejected Trump in Idaho and Utah because they are uncomfortable with his anti-Muslim comments, which stir memories of persecution of the LDS in American history.
Teton vote During last month’s Republican county conventions, Trump won in only one place – Teton County. And even that might be more of a fluke than a sign of deep-seated support, says one prominent Republican.
Keith Gingery, from Jackson and an ex-legislator, said many at the Teton County Convention were pushing for an undeclared delegate.
“We thought it that would give us much more of an advantage because people would woo them,” he said.
But the undeclared candidates couldn’t get a majority of the vote. After several rounds of voting, Jon Baker, a delegate supporting Trump, won.
Although Cruz has so far come out on top in Wyoming, Trump has started a conversation that has energized voters, said Campbell County Republican Party Chairman Chris Smith.
Faith appeal Some of Cruz’s support comes from his ability to appeal to the faith-based community, Smith said, while Trump’s aggressive views on immigration, nationalism and employment have jumped out to Wyoming voters in an election year where unemployment in the state is rising and the energy industry is in a slump.
Some Trump supporters say their voice hasn’t been heard in the process.
Clarence Vranish is one. The ex-state legislator said there was no vote, no debate on who they would support in Uinta County. His county went to Cruz.
The list of politicians Trump has vanquished is already lengthy and could grow to include Kasich and Cruz before primary season is over.
But Trump could still fall short of the necessary number of delegates, about 1,237, to secure the nomination. If that happens, his poor showing in the Northern Rockies will have played a role.
Where do you think Silverado Bank was Neil cost the Taxpayers was located?
DENVER
Seriously, do you really believe that the Romney GOPe and his fairy RNC 'prince' should do the selecting? Lying Ryan is waiting in the wings.. I even have a mind numbed lib relative promoting the goodness of lying Ryan as the best person the GOP should nominate for president. A Hillry supporter no less... I have no faith in the mindless and spineless GOPe. Presently I am just fine with Trump winning the nomination... I like just fine Trump exposing the traitors that have written Obamas checks these past 7 + years.
For the 4 Obama voters, I personally know, to come to their own conclusions that Trump was worth their vote, speaks volumes to me. I am still shaking my head over finding out that revelation.. I never saw it coming.
Two words: Cheney Mafia
yEAH, PARTY HACK = 20,000 everyday people
If you are going to accuse someone of being dumber than a box of rocks, you might want to check your spelling before hitting "post".
FWIW, I'm hoping for a contested convention at this point. I want nothing more than for Trump to get 1246 delegates and then not be able to get a single delegate from any other candidate on the second and third ballots because he insulted every one of them throughout his campaign. That would be a hoot.
Every time I post something negative about Trump I get personally insulted - as if that is going to draw me closer to Him. (Capitalization intended).
Large portion of Wyoming is made up of national parks. Environment is very tough, 6 hours of sunlight in the winter, cold, snow, drought.... Not an easy state to live in.... but it is spectacularly beautiful!
I suspect this harsh winter environment might account for the peoples attitudes. Others have said that if you are looking for what America use to be... a clean country with values and a pioneer spirit, you can find it in Wyoming. also the cowboy culture is very strong there who tend to be somewhat unwelcoming to outsiders and people who don’t conform in their ways
The well has been poisoned.
I guess post #1 was an anticipatory WHINE?
Don’t forget that he fired his CO guy two days before the Convention and submitted his delegate sheet riddled with errors. One of the names on his sheet for Trump delegates was a Cruz delegate! Huuuge Trump CF.
Good grief, you’re gloating about the ‘rules’ of misrepresentation.
For me it used to be fun just posting pictures, but now it is really fun to watch the squirming.
You can put some of the blame on the GOPe Trump supporters, but when Trump says that federal lands out West should stay in federal hands while Cruz says they should be transferred to state control, Trump is on the wrong side of popular opinion in the rural West from Utah to Montana including Colorado and Wyoming.
The rules were in effect before the election. To complain about losing because the rules weren’t fair after you lose is what Sore Loserman did in Florida. They wanted the rules changed after the election. Now Trump is whining about how he lost because the rules weren’t fair.
You really want such a petty tyrant to be president?
-—Yeah, why even show up, if it’s so horridly “GOPe” controlled? What’s the use?! Trump cannot win in these local GOP meetings.
Be sure to SPREAD THE WORD now.
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Your right. Time for Trump to go 3rd party, and many of us with him.
Let the GOP have their own guy, the GOP does not represent me, and I don’t want the type of guy they want to force down my throat.
Lets see how the GOP does against Hillary then.
As it stands there are many more registered D’s than R’s in the nation. So imagine if the GOP loses 20% of it’s base, another 40% stay home, then the D’s lose 20% of their base, and another 30% stay home.
Trump could actually win. But most importantly, the GOP loses.
I’m all for that at this point.
...and... I’m all for SPREADING THE WORD
The GOP will have no one to blame but themselves when they lose. But they like that position, it gives them a reason to blame everyone else for their inability to actually do anything, and it gives them cause to fund-raise from the rubes (just $10 or $20 more dollars, anything and we CAN end abortion and end Obama care... please just a little more $$$$ whatever you can give! We are so close.. with your donation... we can do it!)
Don’t feed the troll. ;-)
Cruz advantage over Trump is he pretends to be someone different for every different group of people. In Wyoming he’s put good indicates that he’s just like to get the locals to vote for him. He’s lying of course, but it works and is smart politics.
Trump on the other hand never pretends to be something he isn’t. Same clothing everywhere he goes, same words, ect. Trump is running the most genuine campaign I’ve ever seen.
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