I'm thinking there is room for movement either way here.
I'm pulling for Cruz but I see some hope for the Trump folks as well. I recommend watching the trends in the California polling on RCP. That will tell us a lot.
Posted on 04/07/2016 7:13:59 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
In order to win the Republican presidential nomination on the first ballot, Donald Trump has to win approximately 62% 56% [see update] of the remaining delegates. With a few Cruz-friendly states still on the horizon, that means Trump has to win big in New York and in California. So far he’s on track to get a big delegate haul out of his home state, but a new Field poll in California suggests that his prospects for striking gold on the West Coast are slim:
Trump leads Cruz in California 39 percent to 32 percent among likely Republican voters, according to the poll. Kasich is running a distant third.
But in Los Angeles County and areas of inland California, Cruz, the senator from Texas, holds an advantage. The regional differences are significant because California Republicans award nearly all of their 172 delegates by congressional district, three delegates each to the winner of each district. Losing even a handful of districts could hurt Trump’s effort to amass the 1,237 delegates necessary to secure the nomination.
“The result that we got in this poll does not benefit Trump’s chances,” said Mark DiCamillo, director of the poll. “If these regional differences persist, the delegate allocations will be more divided (among candidates).”
Interestingly, Field finds a strong correlation between Trump voters and those who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger:
Likely Republican voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger now support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are far more likely to support Cruz. Schwarzenegger himself has endorsed Kasich this year.
The correlation offers both a parallel and a demonstration of a lack of long-term memory among California Republicans. Schwarzenegger launched his gubernatorial bid based largely on his celebrity and was hailed as a savior for the GOP as the state slipped into deep-blue status. He won in the recall election that booted Gray Davis from office, and at first put forward a center-Right agenda. As soon as Schwarzenegger got his political nose bloodied, however, he threw in with Democrats and governed as a center-Left politician.
The poll shows that California may become a real battleground, even if New York does not. Cruz has an 11-point lead in Los Angeles County (40/29), which has 18 of California’s 53 Congressional districts, in whole or in part (via Moe Lane). Cruz also leads in the Central Valley by nine, 42/33, which would cover another eight districts or so. That puts Cruz in reach of 78 delegates of California’s 172 in the winner-take-all-by-CD primary, which would be enough to keep Trump from a first-ballot nomination.
Perhaps a bit more curiously, Cruz — vying to be the first Latino atop a major-party ticket — doesn’t have much of an advantage among his own ethnic demographic. He only leads Trump 35/32, within the margin of error, while John Kasich gets 19%. That could cramp Cruz’ chances in California, the LA Times reports, unless Cruz begins to heavily campaign on that basis in the districts where it will matter:
There are 14 California congressional districts — out of 53 — where at least 20% of registered Republicans are Latinos, according to Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc. The average Latino share of the GOP electorate in those districts is 34%.
“Cruz has an advantage in these districts for sure,” Mitchell says.
But Mike Madrid, a Republican consultant and the grandson of Mexican immigrants, isn’t so sure.
Cruz’s position on illegal immigration, after all, isn’t much different than Trump’s. True, unlike Trump, he hasn’t called Mexicans who came here illegally rapists, drug dealers and violent criminals. But, like Trump, he advocates deporting them and building a border wall.
“Cruz has never been a favorite of the Latino community,” Madrid says. “He’s getting support only because they hate Trump so much. Your choice is Trump or Cruz? Good luck….
“Cruz needs to get out of Huntington Beach and start campaigning in Huntington Park. That’s the only way he wins. For the first time in his life, he has to campaign among Latino Republicans and embrace his Latino heritage.”
It wouldn’t be the first time in his life, but it might be the only time in the lives of Latino Republicans in California that their votes matter for the GOP nomination, given the late scheduling of the state’s primary. It’s encouraging to Cruz that Kasich hasn’t gotten much support in this equation, but he’ll need to find a way to inspire Latinos in the LA and Central Valley areas to come out and vote. Cruz needs to demonstrate strength in this demographic or else risk the embarrassment that Hillary Clinton experienced with her performance among women in Wisconsin. If Cruz can do that, he may not win the battle in California, but he’ll gain enough delegates to give himself an opportunity to win the war in Cleveland.
One other key to watch will be the gender gap. Field shows Trump up 17 among men and Cruz up four among women. Cruz managed to neutralize that advantage in Wisconsin and crushed Trump. If he can do the same in California, it’s possible that Cruz can win the battle — and that might be enough to convince the rest of the delegates to throw in with him on an earlier ballot in Cleveland.
Update: Some delegate math from ConservativeLA:
@EdMorrissey I must be missing something. Not allocated = 882. Trump has 743, so 1237 – 743 = 494 that he needs. 494/882 = 56%.
— ConservativeLA (@ConservativeLA) April 7, 2016
I’ve seen both 56% and 62% bandied about, but CLA makes a good case for the former. I’ve edited the opening paragraph accordingly.
I'm thinking there is room for movement either way here.
I'm pulling for Cruz but I see some hope for the Trump folks as well. I recommend watching the trends in the California polling on RCP. That will tell us a lot.
Before or after Cruz makes a deal with Kasich for VP in exchange for his delegates?
Does it factor in the 5 - 20 points that Cruz usually outperforms the polls? It is looking even more like neither man will get the magic number of delegates.
The Delegates needs 482 of remaining 835 or 57.7%. With the states that remain, he can not earn the needed delegates with plurality victories. That is why he is wants Kasich get out.
You did not read what I said. I will vote for whatever candidate thE Republicans put up. I WILL NEVER VOTE FOR HILLARY. I WILL VOTE FOR A ‘YALLER DOG’ BEFORE HILLARY. Hopes that answers your question.
RE: You did not read what I said. I will vote for whatever candidate thE Republicans put up.
I did read what you said. And your response is you will vote for ANY ONE BUT HILLARY. I understand that.
But do you have someone in mind you would GLADLY vote for, not reluctantly simply because the alternative is worse/worst.
Cannot imagine LA and the surrounding area as hot spots for conservatism
The bigger concern is another “demokrat operation kaos” where the rats cross over to vote for Cruz to face Hillary or Bernie - as occurred in Wisconsin
yes he is, as the demokrats crossover to vote for Cruz because they know they can beat him, as the voting patterns show occurred in Wisconsin
you want proof of all those rumors?
just wait
Do you think Kasich wants to tie himself to a Canadian with a weakness for prostitutes?
Don’t think the DC folks don’t know the truth and don’t think the democrats cant wait to get started on Cruz when they feel the time is right
And Trump loses states that Romney won or is within the margin of error in states that Romney won big.
Cruz only out performs in fraud states like Utah and Wisconsin. The GOPee won’t have control of the voting machines there in Cali.
Cruz has a path to the nomination until Trump gets 1237.
That is good to k now
So the main reason they have to switch parties is to vote for the candidate they prefer, not to play contested convention chess
“Meaningless as Ted will have no path to the nomination after April 19th.”
Silly. You mean he doesn’t have a path to a nomination on the firs ballot. That’s very different.
“Interestingly, Field finds a strong correlation between Trump voters and those who voted for Arnold Schwarzenegger:
‘Likely Republican voters who say they voted for Schwarzenegger now support Trump over Cruz by a nearly three to one margin, according to the poll. Republicans who voted for Tom McClintock or some other candidate are far more likely to support Cruz.’”
What a surprise. I’m going to die of a heart attack from that surprise.
The main differences between Arnold and Trump are that Arnold didn’t need daddy’s money and loan guarantees to become rich, and Arnold is an immigrant that married an American while Trump is an American that married two immigrants (with an American mistress-turned-wife in between).
I remember how infuriating it was back during the CA recall election when so many FReepers drank the Kool-Aid and supported the liberal RINO Arnold over solid conservative Tom McClintock. I guess that Karl Marx was right about one thing: “History repeats itself, first as tragedy, then as farce.” Arnold could keep all of his liberal positions and if he promised to build a wall for free he’d become “conservative” in the eyes of many FReepers. Sad, really.
Anything can happen at a political convention. A little historical factoid: In 1880. James Garfield, who started out the Republican convention as a person chosen to give a nominating speech for the incumbent president Rutherford B. Hayes, ended up as the Republican Party’s nominee after 36 ballots. Garfield had no interest in even running for president before the convention became completely deadlocked.
Garfield only had 1 vote heading into the 34th ballot. Former president U.S. Grant had the largest number of delegates on every ballot until the 36th when Garfield finally won a majority. As part of a bargain, Chester Arthur from NY was selected as the VP nominee. Arthur had never held political office but was one of the leaders of the NY political machine who were behind Grant. Garfield got Arthur to break from his boss, Sen. Roscoe Conkling, and accept the the VP nomination. Less than a year later, Arthur became president after the assassination of Garfield.
That was 1880 before the advent of the internet and cable TV.
How’s a similar scenario like that going to play out (i.e. even be accepted ) in 2016?
There will be cries of insider rigging and manipulation.
And if the GOP ever goes to over 5, much less over 10 ballots to select say someone like Rubio or Bush, the eventual candidate will be toast against Hillary. A huge number of voters will probably stay home.
39-32 with Kasich 18 and undecided at 11%.
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