New York Poll Fox News 4/5/2016 Trump 53.3% Kasich 21.3% Cruz 19% #NY #NYC #Polls #TrumpTrain #NeverCruz #GOP #MAGA
I don’t know how the Cruz folk will spin those numbers. If that was Cruz, we would never hear the end of it.
Those are great numbers for Trump, even considering that they are in his home state.
RCP has him +31.2 average in New York. He will of course win NY, and with his “style” probably win big. Same for him in NJ or PA.
But the real number that counts will be his winning percentage, vs. how he is polling. If he wins at a +30 or greater, even a +28, that will be a great sign for him, and to the DC decision makers.
If he wins as only a +18 to +20 or less, that will be moderately bad for him. A +10 or + 14 win, in his home state, by the candidate leading the delegate count, would be horrible.
These are the “between the lines” numbers that really count when predicting how a primary candidate will do in the general.... and please remember, winning in November is everything. Losing in November is speeches to the Friday Noon Kiawanis CLub in Muldraw, Kentucky.