Trump got almost the same % of the vote he did in Michigan, a win for him, but now a loss in Wisconsin. Trump didn’t get any more unpopular between then and now. His opposition just finally started voting smarter.
This vote tonight shows what the smart numbers guys have been saying for two months, that all the Republicans need to do is consolidate behind one candidate to beat Trump, because Trump has had a ceiling under 50% everywhere. If Rubio had gotten out sooner than Florida, Cruz might be leading in delegates. And if Kasich gets out now, Cruz will almost catch up to Trump in delegates.
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Are you implying that Wisconsin is a precursor for Cruz wins in:
NY
Conn.
Delaware
Maryland
Penn.
R.I.
??
What if Trump wins these states, or a majority of them? What conclusion will you and Rush Limbaugh draw?
Those tougher, more liberal states are the ones that Kasich, out of rank strategic stupidity and mathematical ignorance, will help hand delegates to Trump in. These libs and moderates are less predisposed to Cruz, so they need Kasich out before they’ll vote for Cruz.
Kasich staying in will get Trump within 100 or so if 1237. If Kasich gets out, Cruz can get close enough to 1237 to win on the first ballot by courting all the fully unbound delegates, the vast majority of which he will be able to get.
Pennsylvania has less bound delegates than Rhode Island, so a win there is less of a significant win than most realize at this point. April 26th has 118 bound delegates in all, so not that much more significant than the single state vote in New York the week before. Out of the next 11 states, the final ones, Trump is only a lock to win New Jersey. That’s when his failure to hit 1237 will be confirmed.