Those tougher, more liberal states are the ones that Kasich, out of rank strategic stupidity and mathematical ignorance, will help hand delegates to Trump in. These libs and moderates are less predisposed to Cruz, so they need Kasich out before they’ll vote for Cruz.
Kasich staying in will get Trump within 100 or so if 1237. If Kasich gets out, Cruz can get close enough to 1237 to win on the first ballot by courting all the fully unbound delegates, the vast majority of which he will be able to get.
Pennsylvania has less bound delegates than Rhode Island, so a win there is less of a significant win than most realize at this point. April 26th has 118 bound delegates in all, so not that much more significant than the single state vote in New York the week before. Out of the next 11 states, the final ones, Trump is only a lock to win New Jersey. That’s when his failure to hit 1237 will be confirmed.
Go Kasich! Piss off teddy and his peeps. Thwart teddy’s strategery.
It's not rocket surgery to figure out.
Kasich staying in will get Trump within 100 or so if 1237. If Kasich gets out, Cruz can get close enough to 1237 to win on the first ballot by courting all the fully unbound delegates, the vast majority of which he will be able to get.
Catch 22. If Kasich gets out, his Ohio delegates get distributed to the runner up in Ohio; Trump. So Kasich is stuck, like boat anchor.