Cruz has already won 8: Iowa, Alaska, Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Main, Idaho and Utah.
The only candidates who qualify under Rule 40 are Trump and Cruz. Unless Kasich suddenly wins 7 more states, Trump and Cruz will be the only ones eligible when the convention starts.
The only way I see the convention adopting a different rule is if all or most of Trump's or Cruz's delegates join with the delegates pledged to the ineligible candidates to do so. Since the rules are adopted as the first order of business, it would be pretty stupid for either Trump's or Cruz's delegates to open the door to additional nominees.
I believe the current standard is not just winning states, but getting the majority of delegates in that state.
As of now, I think only Trump has 8 states that meet that standard. Quite possible Cruz gets there before the end.
No way does Kasich get even close.