Ted Cruz is more popular when you sample everyone, not just Republican primary voters. Even among Republican primary voters, not-Trump is far more popular than Trump, but split its vote.
The willingness of FReepers to ignore polls is very odd. Absent a few outliers, polls are very accurate. They are telling us as scientifically as possible that Trump would lose in a landslide to Hillary if the vote were today. That doesn’t mean that result is guaranteed for November, but it means that it will be the result absent a recipe for Trump to become more popular among people who right now seem to have a very dim view of him.
“Ted Cruz is more popular when you sample everyone, not just Republican primary voters. Even among Republican primary voters, not-Trump is far more popular than Trump, but split its vote.”
You must have mangled all sorts of mental machinery to feed that twisted, illogical, libthink through your brain.
Has it occurred to you that the Not Cruz vote is even bigger than the Not Trump vote?
Yeah, Kasich and Trump are the splitters, and are unfairly denying Ted the lead he so rightfully deserves.
Geeeez.....
Ted Cruz is more popular when you sample everyone, not just Republican primary voters. Even among Republican primary voters, not-Trump is far more popular than Trump, but split its vote.
Wait, what? Now that one takes the cake! Cruz is more popular which must mean he has a wider base and gets those (D) and (I) voters. What are you smoking son! Seriously, haven't you heard that 'Trump wins the open ones and Cruz wins the closed ones'? It was your very own guy Saint Ted who said that while trying to rationalize all his losses. He admitted right then and there that he CANNOT win the general and y'all refused to listen. Your facts are wrong too. Non-Cruz is higher than Non-Trump! See below.
The willingness of FReepers to ignore polls is very odd. Absent a few outliers, polls are very accurate. They are telling us as scientifically as possible that Trump would lose in a landslide to Hillary if the vote were today. That doesnt mean that result is guaranteed for November, but it means that it will be the result absent a recipe for Trump to become more popular among people who right now seem to have a very dim view of him.
Here's the thing, no comment about winning the general can be taken seriously unless that person is talking about the purple states. Sorry, but that includes you. Twelve individual contests are held in these swing states on election day. Assuming "Red/Blue" holds the same as the past two cycles, then simply put, nothing else matters at all. If you cannot pull a specific quantity of electoral votes out of those states, then it is all over. Done. Since you failed to mention those states at all I'll assume you have no clue about them. See here for the bad news.
If you want the short version, Cruz cannot win the general because he cannot even beat Trump in the swing states, 7 of 12 primaries are already completed. If he cannot beat the so-called (D)emocrat Trump in the primaries with only (R) and (C) voters, then he is dead meat in the general against (D)emocrat Hillary when the doors get opened to (D) and (L) voters also. Refute that Cruzers ( not you specifically, any Cruzer ). Here is the question, who is left to vote for Cruz who already has not? Do you think Trump voters would vote for him if he steals the nomination? No way Jose. Not after what Cruz has pulled. The KKK bullsh!t. That was GOPe worthy smearing.
Now about these 'Polls'. You cannot blanket apply the word "scientifically". One must remember there is a gradient here, polls are not scientific without great expense and effort. On the highest end of objective measuring you have actual elections. Then you have election exit polls, a subset of those voters. Then a big gap and you get to scientific polls with large samples, neutral questions and adequate screening. Then even further down are push polls with small samples and little to no neutrality or scientific control. Then internet polls open to practically everyone. And finally, Cruzer style wishful thinking, group-think and circle-jerks ( sorry, but it's a new category now ).
You see only1percent, there is no real assurance that any "poll" except for Exit Polls are measuring legal, actual voters who vote. You are specifically falling for push polls which can very easily count non-voters and even illegal aliens and foreigners, not to mention kids too! They can also very easily oversample one particular party or candidate's followers. Finally, remember that the media outlets and polling firms have dubious integrity and honesty, corrupt enough to report only the results they were looking for. This should be glaringly obvious at this moment as we've seen the media in action this cycle. Hell, we've seen Cruz in action, is there anybody left that is honest now? Don't you believe that Cruz might use push polls now to fund-raise since he running out of cash?
I'm not gonna press you for the internals for whatever push polls you are hypnotized by, or to tell us the sample size. No, I'll just show you the results of the biggest poll taken so far. The most accurate. The most scientific. The most screened for eligible voters. The most sound. The only one that really counts in the end. The sample size for this poll is currently 21,089,383 actual voters!
Results of the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016 Donald Trump ... 7,861,671 (37.11%) Primary=18 Caucus=3 Ted Cruz ....... 5,779,837 (27.28%) Primary= 3 Caucus=8 John Kasich .... 2,821,264 (13.32%) Primary= 1 Caucus=0 Marco Rubio .... 3,469,278 (16.38%) Primary= 1 Caucus=2 Ben Carson ....... 692,693 ( 3.27%) Jeb Bush ......... 254,515 ( 1.20%) Rand Paul ......... 56,451 ( 0.27%) Chris Christie .... 52,679 ( 0.25%) Mike Huckabee ..... 47,263 ( 0.22%) Carly Fiorina ..... 35,287 ( 0.17%) Rick Santorum ..... 15,774 ( 0.07%) Jim Gilmore ........ 2,671 ( 0.01%)
Here it is again inverted just for you since you incorrectly spoke of the non-Trump vote ...
non-Trump ...... 62.89% non-Cruz ....... 72.72% non-Kasich ..... 86.68% non-Rubio ...... 83.62% non-Carson ..... 96.73% non-Bush ....... 98.80% non-Paul ....... 99.73% non-Christie ... 99.75% non-Huckabee ... 99.78% non-Fiorina .... 99.83% non-Santorum ... 99.93% non-Gilmore .....99.99%
At this point in the 1980 Primaries, Reagan had won just 7 ( NH, VT, SC, AL, FL, GA, IL ) and lost 4 ( IA, PR, MA, CT ).
At this point in the 1980 Polls, Carter beat him in the polls in March by 60-31% and 58-33%, and then with Anderson added in, check this out, it was non-Reagan 68%, and never better than non-Reagan 63% until Aug-Sep. Trump is running ahead of Reagan, and always has been despite the media onslaught and more numerous amount of candidates. And despite running against a sneaky, Lyin' Ted Cruz and the GOPe smear machine.