Posted on 03/30/2016 4:10:53 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
MADISON, Wis. - Donald Trump just walked into a political buzz saw in Wisconsin.
The latest Marquette Law School poll, released Wednesday, just six days before the Badger State votes in the presidential primary election, shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with a 10 percent lead over the billionaire "anti-establishment" Trump.
But what the numbers might underscore more than anything is most conservatives in Wisconsin like Gov. Scott Walker, and a sizable majority don’t care for Donald Trump.
"Walker has an 80 percent approval level among GOP primary likely voters, with just 17 percent disapproving. That is strong support within the party," said Marquette Law School public policy professor Charles Franklin, who conducted the poll.
Trump's Walker bashing on conservative talk radio and at rallies this week probably didn't help his cause, although the poll was conducted March 24-28, before the candidates descended on Wisconsin full force in advance of the April 5 primary.
Cruz picked up support from 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Trump, with 21 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.
On the Democrat side, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic Party primary. That survey, however, has an error rate of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
And despite the salacious headlines of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other mainstream news outlets, Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley holds a 5-percentage point advantage in her race against appeals court Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg, at 41 percent to 36 percent. The number of undecided voters is significantly higher, at 18 percent, in a poll with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Bradley's lead has only widened since a left-wing group pushed a story about anti-gay columns Bradley wrote while a college student and the Journal Sentinel published a misleading piece accusing Bradley of an extramarital affair.
After Walker gave his endorsement to Cruz Tuesday, Trump seemed to go back on the attack against his former political opponent. During Walker's short-lived presidential run, Trump went after the Republican governor on his handling of the economy, firing off faulty data to make his case that Wisconsin's economy was failing. The billionaire's assertions were shot down as erroneous at best, but after Walker announced his support for Trump’s bitter rival, Trump regurgitated the same false talking points on the airwaves and at rallies.
The latest Marquette poll numbers suggest a validation among Republicans for all things Scott Walker and a repudiation for all things not Scott Walker.
"Walker's support among Republicans still is very high... They still think he’s doing a good job," said Charles Jacobs, political science professor at St. Norbert College. "There is a miscalculation there if (Trump) thinks Wisconsin Republican voters have thrown Walker under the bus and he's done. Republicans still like him. They want him to run for a third term."
Jacobs attended the Trump rally at St. Norbert Wednesday, where at one point Trump began giving the approximately 200 students on hand a lecture on how to be successful in life.
Why would Trump want to pick a fight with Walker? That's The Donald, pundits say. The anti-establishment candidate persona lives on, even to the detriment of Trump's campaign.
Among likely Republican primary voters, 23 percent say they are very uncomfortable with the idea of Trump as president. Another 14 percent say the same for Cruz, while 5 percent are very uncomfortable with Kasich.
Trump's act might just be played out in the Badger State, Jacobs said, adding that he was a bit surprised by Cruz’s double-digit lead.
"What we have been seeing over the last several weeks is some of what is attractive about Trump might be growing a bit stale," he said. "He constantly has to outdo himself. He's like the showy kid in elementary school who one day blows milk through his nose and the next day has to find something new to do."
Could Wisconsin be Trump's political Waterloo? Perhaps. But like everything else in this contest, it's a numbers game.
"Trump gets 44 percent from those who disapprove of Scott Walker, and just 27 percent among those who do," Franklin said. "So maybe he knows his base and is playing to it."
That's probably not enough to win Wisconsin, but it has and may well play somewhere else, as the delegate chase moves on after next Tuesday.
No he did not say that those are the words of the questioner not his. Its called a Gotcha leading question not a statement of the victim.
After Cruz loses, the GOPe will say, “See, we told you so!”
The freakin’ election is eight months away! How in Gods name do people keep coming up with nonsense? ‘’This one’s ahead, that one’s behind’’ Fer cryin’ out loud!
“I don’t know what planet you Cruzers live on or what your mental condition is”
If you think your orange-headed carnival barker has a snowball’s chance in hell at winning in November, you need to ingest that second bucket of meds. Trump will be crushed in November no matter how much you might fantasize otherwise.
27% of those who approve of Walker. That’s close to what Cruz got statewide in Iowa Caucus and talking about “rattled” trump.
“Yeah, that’s why he only has just under 8 million of the popular votes in all the primaries and caucuses to date versus Cruz’s 1.8 million.
Uh, no. It’s Trump 7,811,245; Cruz 5,732,220... but we wouldn’t want to let facts get in the way now, would we?
I am quite sure Melissa Young would strongly disagree with you.
On whether abortion should be punished:
“Look, people in certain parts of the Republican Party, conservative Republicans, would say, ‘Yes, it should,’” Trump said.
Note that without consulting his brains (advisors) about the “Right” position to take, he speaks of “conservative Republicans” in the third person.
Trump is the faux-populist RINO in this race. If he is nominated, Utah becomes a swing state.
Exactly, Savage has also feared Trump’s advisors would try to get Trump to be more ‘Presidential’ whatever the hell that means. Trump is leading the pack by listening to himself, not by listening to others tell him what is acceptable to the PC crowd. That’s what we’re tired of. If we want a more of the same PC politician, we’ll just nominate a Cruz.
Trump can’t win Ohio either. But Florida he can.
Of course Cruz didn’t get much in the winner-take-all home bases for Kasich (OH) and Rubio (FL). If Cruz voters wanted to stop Trumpocrat, they voted for Kasich and Rubio.
Walker was supposed to lose in WI, too. Then he didn’t.
If/when Trump wins, there will be a lot of egg on a lot of faces.
Yup
Perhaps you haven't heard. To reduce congestion at polling places, Trump voters are being asked to vote on Wednesday, April 6 instead.
If Cruz wins the nomination, more power to him.
I just don’t see what blue states from 2012 he’ll flip to win in November.
So Cruz wins WI, the GOPe, msm, etc pile on Trump, Cruz gets the nomination and then loses to Hillary.
Great.
Cruz can’t win FL or OH.
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Yet he fares much better against Clinton than Trump, go figure, oh yeah Trump has 71%+ disapproval among women. Grats on being a loser. Trump.
“Trump can’t win Ohio either. “
Trump got more votes in the OH rep primary than Hillary got in the dem primary.
Also, He and/or Cruz would easily win OH with Kasich as VP. However with Cruz, he would still lose Fl.
“But Florida he can.”
Yup. Trump got more votes than Hillary in FL in the primaries.
In addition, Trump has the chance to win CT, MI, NH and maybe outside chance of NY.
Cruz has NO CHANCE in any of those states nor any blue state anywhere.
Did I mention that I like Cruz?
Yes, it will be fun voting for Cruz on April 26th in Pennsylvania.
This hurts Trump. Without Wisconsin I don’t think Trump will hit 1237. He may get close and he can argue that he should win, but unless some non-binding delegates vote Trump in the first round he won’t be the nominee.
So the question is will Cruz win or will the GOPe put someone in?
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