Posted on 03/30/2016 4:10:53 PM PDT by afraidfortherepublic
MADISON, Wis. - Donald Trump just walked into a political buzz saw in Wisconsin.
The latest Marquette Law School poll, released Wednesday, just six days before the Badger State votes in the presidential primary election, shows Texas Sen. Ted Cruz with a 10 percent lead over the billionaire "anti-establishment" Trump.
But what the numbers might underscore more than anything is most conservatives in Wisconsin like Gov. Scott Walker, and a sizable majority don’t care for Donald Trump.
"Walker has an 80 percent approval level among GOP primary likely voters, with just 17 percent disapproving. That is strong support within the party," said Marquette Law School public policy professor Charles Franklin, who conducted the poll.
Trump's Walker bashing on conservative talk radio and at rallies this week probably didn't help his cause, although the poll was conducted March 24-28, before the candidates descended on Wisconsin full force in advance of the April 5 primary.
Cruz picked up support from 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Trump, with 21 percent for Ohio Gov. John Kasich, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5.8 percentage points.
On the Democrat side, Bernie Sanders holds a 49 percent to 45 percent edge over Hillary Clinton among likely voters in the Wisconsin Democratic Party primary. That survey, however, has an error rate of plus or minus 6.3 percentage points.
And despite the salacious headlines of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and other mainstream news outlets, Supreme Court Justice Rebecca Bradley holds a 5-percentage point advantage in her race against appeals court Judge JoAnne Kloppenburg, at 41 percent to 36 percent. The number of undecided voters is significantly higher, at 18 percent, in a poll with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
Bradley's lead has only widened since a left-wing group pushed a story about anti-gay columns Bradley wrote while a college student and the Journal Sentinel published a misleading piece accusing Bradley of an extramarital affair.
After Walker gave his endorsement to Cruz Tuesday, Trump seemed to go back on the attack against his former political opponent. During Walker's short-lived presidential run, Trump went after the Republican governor on his handling of the economy, firing off faulty data to make his case that Wisconsin's economy was failing. The billionaire's assertions were shot down as erroneous at best, but after Walker announced his support for Trump’s bitter rival, Trump regurgitated the same false talking points on the airwaves and at rallies.
The latest Marquette poll numbers suggest a validation among Republicans for all things Scott Walker and a repudiation for all things not Scott Walker.
"Walker's support among Republicans still is very high... They still think he’s doing a good job," said Charles Jacobs, political science professor at St. Norbert College. "There is a miscalculation there if (Trump) thinks Wisconsin Republican voters have thrown Walker under the bus and he's done. Republicans still like him. They want him to run for a third term."
Jacobs attended the Trump rally at St. Norbert Wednesday, where at one point Trump began giving the approximately 200 students on hand a lecture on how to be successful in life.
Why would Trump want to pick a fight with Walker? That's The Donald, pundits say. The anti-establishment candidate persona lives on, even to the detriment of Trump's campaign.
Among likely Republican primary voters, 23 percent say they are very uncomfortable with the idea of Trump as president. Another 14 percent say the same for Cruz, while 5 percent are very uncomfortable with Kasich.
Trump's act might just be played out in the Badger State, Jacobs said, adding that he was a bit surprised by Cruz’s double-digit lead.
"What we have been seeing over the last several weeks is some of what is attractive about Trump might be growing a bit stale," he said. "He constantly has to outdo himself. He's like the showy kid in elementary school who one day blows milk through his nose and the next day has to find something new to do."
Could Wisconsin be Trump's political Waterloo? Perhaps. But like everything else in this contest, it's a numbers game.
"Trump gets 44 percent from those who disapprove of Scott Walker, and just 27 percent among those who do," Franklin said. "So maybe he knows his base and is playing to it."
That's probably not enough to win Wisconsin, but it has and may well play somewhere else, as the delegate chase moves on after next Tuesday.
“Yet he fares much better against Clinton than Trump,”
Sigh. No he doesn’t.
“go figure, oh yeah Trump has 71%+ disapproval among women. Grats on being a loser. Trump.”
If Cruz is the nominee women are NOT going to flock to his ticket in any game-changing manner.
And I like Cruz.
“After Cruz loses, the GOPe will say, “See, we told you so!”
Yeah!
Exactly, They’ll blame Trump, conservatives, Trump supporters when all along it was Romney and the rest of the GOPer’s betraying us ALL once again.
>Trump is the one the dems want most to face in November. They don’t fear him.
Which is why they send paid protesters to disrupt his rallies, use polticalized charges to remove his campaign manager, call him racist, sexist, and facist all day long. No primary canidate has recived so much negative liberal press since Reagan and you have the gall to say they want to face him? They are terrified of him.
They ignore Cruz because he’s not even the slightest threat to them. The media spent the last few weeks doing everthing posible to help Cruz.
The establishment is using Cruz and his followers for now. Once it’s determined Trump will not get 1237 they will drop support for Cruz. There is no intention of having either of these folks be the nominee. It was never nevertrump. It was always alwaysestablishment. They will get their way as they change the rules after the initial vote and they can subsequently vote the candidate of choice. Pick your poison, Ryan-Romney-Kasich-Bush-Rubio. Watch the push for Rubio to keep his delegates. Ryan is making his moves and Romney has the machine in order.
I’m a little confused by your post. Are you saying that no matter how strong Cruz’s support, Trump WILL win due to crossover votes? Thanks!
Sigh. No he doesn’t.
Yes, he does. In the RCP averages, Trump loses to Hillary by 11.2 and Cruz is only behind Hillary 2.9. If you want Hillary to win in a landslide and also have the Dems pick up both houses of congress, nominate Trump.
Scott Walker: Nominee at Brokered Convention Will Be Someone ‘Not Currently Running’
EXACTLY.
The GOPe is pushing Cruz not just as part of a stop-Trump gambit, but also because they want a supposedly "pure conservative" such as Cruz to lose and lose badly so they can then tell the "pure conservatives" to pound sand, they've had their shot, we GOPe RINOs will take the reins from here, thank you very much.
Trump upends all that BS. The GOPe RINOs will become a rump party that they should be. Maybe they'll resurrect the Whig name.
“Cruz can’t win the nomination and Scott Walker knows it. Said as much right before he endorsed Ted, that the nominee will not be one of the three currently running. “
Ok, so at the brokered convention, the GOPe will use excuse that Cruz ‘can’t win the general’ and give us someone else that NOBODY voted for and that...
...can’t win the general election.
Again runts probus needs to be held accountable for this mess.
If whoever is nominated loses, RNC, board, chairman, etc, need to be removed and people like Romney purged from the party.
Can we stop the crap with Marquette polling being credible? These left-wing commie a-holes predicted that Walker would lose the 2014 recall election by 7 POINTS!!! Walker won the election by 5 POINTS!!! That’s a 12 point error.
We know you hate Trump, but for Pete’s sake quite peddling left wing propaganda crap. You’re starting to smell like a leftist DU troll.
Agree with you. If this kind of money had been spent against Cruz he would have been out and the National Enquirer could have used their ink on something else.
I was uncommitted till Trump used Democrat talking points. I kept looking for reasons to.support Trump, now there is none. There never was $2.2 billion deficit since the last Democratic Governor left office. Unemployment is down to 4.6% (from 9%+). The state is running a surplus. Vote Cruz.
No, if Cruz gets to the convention the RNC will have Kasich sue Cruz for eligibility. Kasich has standing so it works and since most people already hate Kasich, nothing lost.
Then they bring in their precious Paul Ryan to save the day. Cruz is too blinded by ambition to see the end result but there have been plenty of clues including Gov. Walker’s statements and Paul Ryan preparing to be anointed.
“Yes, he does. In the RCP averages, Trump loses to Hillary by 11.2 and Cruz is only behind Hillary 2.9.”
5th grade civics lesson:
See in the US elections there’s this thingy called an “Electoral College” and the candidates get Electoral Votes from elections held in each state.
Now run along to RCP and see how Cruz does vs Clinton in FL, a MUST WIN STATE.
“If you want Hillary to win in a landslide and also have the Dems pick up both houses of congress, nominate Trump. “
If you want to lose to Hillary in a landslide nominate a guy who has NO CHANCE of winning the swing states FL, OH, PA.
And the GOPe DESERVE to lose the senate, they’ve betrayed us all.
I was uncommitted till Trump used Democrat talking points. I kept looking for reasons to.support Trump, now there is none. There never was $2.2 billion deficit since the last Democratic Governor left office. Unemployment is down to 4.6% (from 9%+). The state is running a surplus. Vote Cruz.
“No, if Cruz gets to the convention the RNC will have Kasich sue Cruz for eligibility. Kasich has standing so it works and since most people already hate Kasich, nothing lost.”
Well I don’t know if he’ll have to actually sue, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the eligibility issue is used against Cruz.
“Then they bring in their precious Paul Ryan to save the day. Cruz is too blinded by ambition to see the end result but there have been plenty of clues including Gov. Walker’s statements and Paul Ryan preparing to be anointed.”
Ryan might be Hillary. I don’t know.
I sure hope you’re right.
~~Go Trump, GO!!~~ ~~Go Trump, GO!!~~ ~~Go Trump, GO!!~~
I sure hope you’re right.
~~Go Trump, GO!!~~ ~~Go Trump, GO!!~~ ~~Go Trump, GO!!~~
I sure hope you’re right.
~~Go Trump, GO!!~~ ~~Go Trump, GO!!~~ ~~Go Trump, GO!!~~
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.