I am curious if your analysis includes the cross over voters, which seem to be the margin that is giving trump victories in the states he is winning.
I ask as it seems that the “moderate” fellows I work with that would vote for Trump on his populist stances will not vote for Cruz. Not sure why but it seems the so called Reagan democrats that like Trump will not vote Cruz. Not quite sure why, all I can say is his negatives are very high, at least in eastern PA where I live. The supposed affairs have not helped, in fact I would say so far the entire issue has hurt Cruz more than Trump, but it is too early to say one way or another, especially if it comes out that Trump did paly dirty on this.
I do think most regular republicans will end up voting in September for the Republican candidate. That said most of the married women I know seem to think Cruz did have the 2 of the 5 affairs based on what has come out so far and his reaction. If this is true across the country, then it is likely that if Cruz can keep Trump from the magic number, the safest strategy for the republicans in a new candidate, not Sir Ted.
The one positive Cruz has established is he would fight Hillary like no other candidate, he has shown that with how he has taken the fight to Trump. Not sure if any other third candidate could say that, so Cruz might be the guy to go with if trump cannot reach the magic number.
We live in interesting times.
>>I am curious if your analysis includes the cross over voters, which seem to be the margin that is giving trump victories in the states he is winning.<<
I understand that many of Trump’s primary voters have voted Democrat in previous elections. However, I also think that those same voters are voting Trump because of two primary factors:
1) He’s very clear on wanting to get control of the borders (I actually doubt he’d do it, but his supporters certainly think he would.)
2) He’s as anti-PC as you can get, rubbing the press’s noses in it every chance he gets. People have had it “up to here” with the PC nonsense, especially now that it’s coming to a head on college campuses (with safe spaces and inane demands) and in center cities (with the Black Lives Matter movement actually stopping Dems from claiming all lives matter.)
In the general election, which of these two movements will Hillary disavow, the PC movement or the open borders movement? Both are championed by the Left, so she won’t disavow either one. Cruz would stand clearly opposed to Hillary (or Bernie too, for that matter) on both issues and Trump’s current voters would see that, for the Cruz campaign would make sure of it.
On the borders issue, right now Cruz is taking flak from Trump supporters for not being tough enough. That won’t happen in the general, because the Dems and Hillary will be arguing the opposite, i.e., that he’s too tough. Ditto for the political correctness issue.
You’re asking will Trump’s crossover voters stick with Cruz or return to Hillary. To the extent that I’m right about the two main reasons they support Trump, I’d say that they’ll stick with Cruz rather than return to a party that overtly disagrees with them on both of the two issues they consider important. They’re leaving the party for those reasons; Trump is their present vehicle for doing so, but I suspect Cruz will suffice for the purpose.
And then there’s the issue of whether or not HIllary is facing an indictment, and the political machinations she employs to avoid it....and the GOP thinks it has problems?