Posted on 03/29/2016 7:31:13 PM PDT by springwater13
I agree with that. But the variation Trump is running is fundamentally flawed. The point is to appeal to your own party in the primary, then appeal to independents in the election.
As much as Trump supporters like to portray themselves as "the base", they aren't. They are only one part of the base, and Trump has managed to piss off much of the rest of that base.
Now if he was pissing off part of the base but gaining more independents in the process, that might work. The problem is that the things that are pissing off a lot of the base are also pissing off a lot of independents. Exactly whose votes is he gaining with comments about penis size and retweeting nasty pictures?
Nixon's strategy revolved around issues. Take a more conservative position on issues during the primary, then move to the middle. Trump's core problem is not the issues. Trump's core problem is personal conduct/statements that gain him very few votes while losing him many more.
To put it differently, are there really people out there who weren't going to vote for Trump until he retweeted that picture of the wives? That his retweet is what convinced them to support Trump?
If they're out there, I haven't met them.
“Changing his mind like he does so very often.”
On the contrary, Trump warned his commitment was conditional on the basis the RNC would fairly respect whomever the voters chose; so when the RNC and/or GOP leadership broke their word, Trump was no longer bound to honor the agreement the GOP/RNC reneged upon. Standard contract law.
The only people who can set or change the rules are the delegates themselves and they've not met yet to begin that process. All the talk of changes designed to screw Trump is coming from the media, agitators, and the Trump camp itself to reinforce his outsider bona fides and his "victim" claims.
You are being manipulated. At this point it looks Trump will be the nominee. The media spreads the rift story to help Hillarys campaign. Don't play along.
“The only people who can set or change the rules are the delegates themselves and they’ve not met yet to begin that process. All the talk of changes designed to screw Trump is coming from the media, agitators, and the Trump camp itself to reinforce his outsider bona fides and his “victim” claims.”
Your comment is a false statement. I am one of the Congressional District delegates, and I have already heard GOP officer delegates comment on how they want to change the rules at the conventions to deny Trump the nomination.
Trumpeteers are really looking through Trump colored glasses. Who would support a person who has spent the last 4 months calling you a bad guy, crazy, liar, and sleezy with no proof of any of it? I wouldn’t do it either.
As with Dole and McCain and Romney, the GOP will once again head into the general election with a non-conservative, big-government loving candidate at the top of the ticket.
Have you seen the Dummy Underground lately? They are split as well, between Hillarybots and Sandernistas.
“The convention rules are not established until a week before the convention so they can’t be “changed” now.”
There are many local and state conventions upcoming before we get to the National Convention, and the GOP officials are already working at each of these levels to limit and marginalize Trump’s delegates and their influence upon the entire process of rule making, resolutions, and delegate elections leading into the National Convention. In other words, there is an effort among at least some of the GOP officials I know of in multiple states to create a means by which they can deny Trump the nomination in a brokered National Convention. It is the factual truth and not just some made up rumor.
I agree with that. But the variation Trump is running is fundamentally flawed. The point is to appeal to your own party in the primary, then appeal to independents in the election.As much as Trump supporters like to portray themselves as "the base", they aren't. They are only one part of the base, and Trump has managed to piss off much of the rest of that base.
Ummm, he is winning all of them. All demographics, All parties. Evangelicals, white black, brown, male, female. All of them. Your comment right there is theory, which was valid up until the NH primary ( and really Iowa too since Trump only lost by a few thou ).
In fact, since it is all about the twelve purple states, just have a look here where I analyze the data from the 7 of the 12 that we already have results for. His strategy is working. How is it that you even wrote that escapes me. You must be letting subjective media propaganda modify the objective data that is visible all around us.
Now if he was pissing off part of the base but gaining more independents in the process, that might work. The problem is that the things that are pissing off a lot of the base are also pissing off a lot of independents. Exactly whose votes is he gaining with comments about penis size and retweeting nasty pictures?
I asked someone else to cite me any Trump attack or so-called gaffe that was not a response to someone else. He is always returning-fire. The penis size? Started with Saint Ted. It even goes back to Megyn on Howard Stern. He always fights back and that is the magic ingredient that escapes non-Trump voters as they scratch their heads wondering 'Why are these people supporting him!'. Now if your advice is he should behave and not fight back, well you got all the others to choose from.
So why do you think he is pissing off (I)ndependents? That is forum talk from empty headed Red Staters and Right Poopers who are pulling their hair out. He's not doing any such thing, where is the proof of that? Now if you really do want to piss the (I)ndependents off, here's how. Send Cruz down there to preach and lecture them on how his day one executive action on planned parenthood or partial birth abortion or gay marriage or eminent domain gets back their blue collar jobs. I'm not quite sure the (R)epublicans even know or care who (I) voters are anymore.
Nixon's strategy revolved around issues. Take a more conservative position on issues during the primary, then move to the middle. Trump's core problem is not the issues. Trump's core problem is personal conduct/statements that gain him very few votes while losing him many more.To put it differently, are there really people out there who weren't going to vote for Trump until he retweeted that picture of the wives? That his retweet is what convinced them to support Trump?
If they're out there, I haven't met them.
As I said, he is doing some kind of hybrid version of the traditional strategy. It looks like he is carving out his issues and simply sticking with them all the way through. These issues are not necessarily the love of (R)epublicrats but they appeal to (I) and (D). Not having to 'shift' later keeps it simple. The key here is finding the common denominator among all the voters. BTW, can you just imagine the pivot required by Ted Cruz? Has any of his loyalists ever considered that? He would spin like an ice skater and shed his hardcore Conservative base in the process. Dear God, what an impossible task and a completely non-existant path to 270.
Now about his manner and style. All I can tell you is your observation would clearly seem to be wrong. He may be scaring you off, and scaring some others off, but there would seem to be many more who were waiting for his style. The truth is that he will only alienate those who think "style" is supreme and more important than everything else. That's his calculation and he looks to be right once again.
Look, Cruz's PAC went nuclear there. Using his wife (?) to solicit votes for Saint Ted ( ironically that picture probably got votes for Trump ). Holy smoke. When he retweeted I don't know if others signed on the Trump Train, but it is what he does. He retaliates. I'm sorry that Cruzers out there hated to see the wives side by side, I would be too if I was on the side with Lizbo Mair. But it was a great retaliation that cost pennies versus her hundreds of thousands. Brilliant really.
I get it, you're concerned. That media onslaught. Well guess what? There is no needle you can thread with them. They have an agenda, you cannot unilaterally disarm or reason with them. Trump is doing the impossible, neutralizing their power. None of the other 16 dwarves would have even considered beating them at their own game.
The goal now is not to be nice or diplomatic. It is to win this thing or it will be over. The Supreme Court is on the line. Amnesty, Naturalization, Trade, Taxes, Military, Veterans. These are his issues. That is the common denominator. He has the tools now to beat the enemy and has strength in the purple States. You could not ask for more. And one year ago no-one who has any brain and knowledge of our pending electoral armageddon could believe winning this thing was really within reach.
I gotta run. Be back tonight maybe.
Perhaps we are talking about two different things. I am talking about the general election. Being able to win a plurality among a voting subgroup from one side of the ideological spectrum during a primary does not tell you much about appeal among the wider electorate of a general election.
George McGovern won the Democratic nomination in 1972, so he was by definition the most popular Democrat in the field. And then he got absolutely crushed in the general election. How is that possible? Because the Democrat primary electorate is a different voting pool than the electorate for the general election. The same applies for the GOP electorate.
So why do you think he is pissing off (I)ndependents? That is forum talk from empty headed Red Staters and Right Poopers who are pulling their hair out. He's not doing any such thing, where is the proof of that?
My evidentiary sources are the voluminous polls that show he is unpopularity/disapproval ratings are much higher than those of any other GOP candidate. Cruz is not as well liked, but he is not as badly disliked either.
In addition to those polls, my own conversations with Republican family and friends reveal that many of them, for the first time ever, do not plan on voting for the GOP nominee if he is Trump. They plan on either leaving that slot blank, or writing in someone else.
I wouldn't normally cite to purely anecdotal evidence like that, but it does confirm both my own sense of what is going on, and what all those polls are saying abut Trump in the general election.
If you dismiss the relevance of those polls, then that's where our breakdown is occurring.
500K-$$$ can buy a lot today, even a horse-face mother-like and a potatohead !!!
Some refuse to see reality, whether by pride or ignorance, to the detriment of us all.
Me too!
Can you blame him though? He said he would support the nominee unless he was treated unfairly. Well look what they did, they got Mutt Romney to viciously bad mouth the guy, F them!
Just to be perfectly clear I am not singling out Trump. All three of them are breaking their words. Pitiful.
Hey, I call them as I see them. Why don’t you post what I said about Cruz and Kasich breaking their words as well. And one other thing. I post those things under my real name, not as an anonymous comic book character.
I post those things under my real name, not as an anonymous comic book character.
*******
You make a wrong assumption as to why I chose that name to post under. Something that takes a lot of work to achieve. If you can figure it out I’ll confirm if you got it right. Does the j stand for John, Jane, or something else. There are thousands and thousands of jwalsh’s.
To me, more like the guys in bleached white shirt and trousers after each corrida, raking the blood into the sand.
John which I have said here on FR hundreds of times. Not interested whether you are an extreme athlete or a knight in shining armor. :-)
I’m not for Trump but I don’t blame him. Each candidate should have told us who the could and couldn’t support from the beginning. I hate loyalty oaths. Be loyal to God and the truth.
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