Posted on 03/25/2016 5:39:07 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
As Donald Trump rolls through the political calendar, his campaign has already begun focusing on a new battle that may have a broader set of consequences -- finding delegates who will be loyal to his cause at the Republican National Convention.
Part of the battle has come in the form of emails to delegates and supporters trying to lock down crucial votes. The other half is a five-person task force that has been quietly being trying to amass the 1,237 votes needed.
Candidates accumulate their delegate count based on the primary or caucus vote, but the processes by which the actual human beings are chosen to fill these delegate slots take place much later and vary by state.
In some states, delegates are elected directly on the ballot. In others, delegates are elected at a state convention or congressional district level meetings.
Rival campaigns and anti-Trump activists have already begun jockeying to fill low-level delegate slots in states that have already voted in order to get themselves elected to the national convention.
If they can infiltrate the delegation, they will likely be bound to vote for Trump on the first vote of the convention. But they can vote against him in making the rules and defect to another candidate if the convention is contested -- when a candidate fails to reach 1,237 delegates before the first ballot.
(Excerpt) Read more at abcnews.go.com ...
I agree to a point-—they can’t, and won’t give Kasich the nomination. They will pull a dark horse like Ryan out and insist he’s the “compromise” candidate.
They don’t yet control enough delegates to deny Trump the nomination, especially when you start looking into Carson, the VI, the other dropout candidates. Trump has plenty of cushion.
No, I didn’t say it’s hopeless and no, neither should give up yet. Cruz, well, it will be obvious after one or two more primaries. But Trump could go with 1150 or so and still have a real shot at securing the difference. The reality is, if your vote means a potential job in government or an appointment, you get pretty flexible in a hurry.
I think both Trump and Cruz understand your point. And I’m certain that the GOPe does. Those guys are going to be all in to defeat Trump. If they feel they can pull in Kasich or Romney they will give it a try. But the handwriting is on the wall - the GOPe is backing Cruz. The Bush endorsement is all the proof I need to convince me of that.
So yes, Trump can win on the second ballot but he is up against the combined forces of the well organize Cruz and the powerful GOPe.
No. The GOPe is faking like they back Cruz. They will never support him if it means he wins. He is a placeholder, nothing more.
Why would they fake it? Why would prominent members of the GOPe endorse Cruz if not to head off Trump?
Answering for you (perhaps):
1. Support Cruz to keep Trump from 1237.
2. Turn 1300 Trump and Cruz delegates into (fill in the blank) supporters and steal the nomination from both Trump and Cruz.
Do I have it right this time?
Here’s a surprising source with a more realistic take about what’s involved when moving beyond a first ballot:
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/what-brokered-convention-gop-rules-favor-trump-n535381
#1. They know they op won’t get a fraction of either for #2 and do not care. In their minds, they don’t need them.
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