A twist to the scenarios is that it is also possible, though not at all likely, that the candidates could go to the convention with Trump not leading in delegates, this rendering moot the idea that the nomination would be “stolen” from him.
One way would be for Cruz to win 65 percent of the remaining delegates, Trump wins the balance, Kasich wins nothing. Cruz ends up with 1072 delegates to Trump’s 1071. Cruz wins on second ballot using now-free Kasich, Rubio and other delegates without “stealing”, since Trump didn’t lead going into the convention.
Another way is for Kasich to start magically winning 67 percent of remaining delegates. Cruz wins 32 percent. Trump wins no more than seven delegates (I did say magic). Result: A three way tie with all three at 763 delegates. Kasich or Cruz get the nomination, again without “stealing” anything.
Of course some GOP fast dealing with the Rubio and other delegates prior to the first ballot would lower somewhat the required level of miracle for Trump’s opponents in these scenarios.
The only real problem with your scenario is that Cruz will be lucky to get 30% of the remaining delegates. Trump will get more than the 1237.
So when Trump shows up at the convention over the mark, and the GOP changes the rules, then the party is over. Literally.
Of course some GOP fast dealing with the Rubio and other delegates prior to the first ballot would lower somewhat
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Your version of my gut feel that things will not go well for Trump if we have a second and possibly subsequent ballots.
Fast dealing by the GOP seems certain. Like it or not Trump supporters, that dealing is most likely to benefit Cruz, a candidate disliked just slightly less than Trump by the GOP leadership.