Trump will have a battle in Wisconsin. Madison is a leftists paradise and is known for having the student body vote not only in the WI elections but also in their own town elections (double dipping).
Madison is also quite organized when it comes to getting out the vote, but I imagine they will be too busy voting Bernie to worry about spoiling the R primary.
There are a lot of empty factories in Wisconsin, paper mills and the like, that were once blue collar havens. Even Milwaukee was once a premier blue collar town that has been devastated by unemployment, and is now partly gentrified.
These voters could and should turn out for Trump, but the rural areas will probably go Cruz, and there is a lot of rural votes in Wisconsin.
Any R would have a hard time winning a general in Wisconsin, but I’d say the primary could be up for grabs.
Bernie should win the state for the D side. Tons of socialists up there, but also a ton of vote fraud out of Milwaukee so who knows.
Whenever I get too down about how the hispanics coming into the country will vote, I think of all the Scandinavian blood up that way, what a travesty they are and think just what are we hanging on to anyway.
First, as to the poll. Was the poll geographically randomized, and were there any weightings applied? Madison and Milwaukee are liberal hell-holes (Madison is both the site of the state capital, and the U of Wisconsin's main campus, and has been described as "ten square miles of liberalism surrounded by reality").
Second, as to the awarding of delegates. If it is truly "winner take all" then Cruz might pull a PR coup here, what with Rancid Penis et al; and the U of Wisconsin-Madison. But if the awarding is proportional within congressional district, then we might end up like Missouri: a near tie on actual votes, but Cruz way over performs in just a couple of locales, and gets skunked everywhere else, resulting in the Donald walking away with most of the delegates. (Did you notice Cruz didn't contest Missouri or demand an (expensive, and likely fruitless) recount?
Third, the effects of Brussels and the Obama economy on the semi-rust-belt people of Wisconsin; combined with the fact that Madison is SO liberal, most of the voters there will go or Bernie, not Cruz ("...a religious nut like him?" they'll say, "are you crazy?"