Posted on 03/23/2016 8:46:19 AM PDT by LS
There are of course conflicting delegate counts. The NYTimes has:
Trump 738 Cruz 463
Five Thirty Eight has:
Trump 754 Cruz 465
Not sure either is correct. 1) It is not clear that either has yet accounted for Missouri's delegates. Trump stands to gain several more here; 2) There are at least 37 "unpledged" delegates, from Carson, Fiorina, Christie, American Samoa and the Virgin Islands. There may be more, depeding on who has actually "dropped out" vs. "suspended." I'm betting that the Trump campaign (and certainly the Cruz campaign too) has been in touch with every one of these delegates. I would be surprised if most of the Caron delegates aren't on board. Either way, 37 (which, again, is a minimum number of "unpledged" delegates that is likely out there) is a big numer, equal to some states and almost as many as Cruz got in Utah.
In reality, I'm thinking Trump has close to 775 delegates already.
According to Five Thirty Eight, Trump did better yesterday than expected in terms of margin of victory in Arizona.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html
That would be out of the 811 left.
Apparently Ted didn't do too well in math.
Here is another nice list for the delegate count. It shows where the numbers are coming from.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/republican_delegate_count.html
Excellent. So the question becomes, WHERE ARE THE OTHER 12 MISSOURI DELEGATES not awarded to ANYONE???
And if they go to the winner, boost Trump’s total by 12 more.
And the big delegate states left are in Trump’s column.
Ted has no chance except to pull shenanigans at the Convention.
DC also has 9 unaccounted for. So that’s 49 (MO, DC, and those who have dropped out).
This is a significant number—10% of Trump’s outstanding “nut.”
Obviously Ted has no chance but Trump needs 500 of the remaining 800... I wonder how hard that is going to be.
Cruz is only staying in hoping for a brokered convention or that the GOPe will steal it from Trump.
Cruz is very much a politician and I don’t get why the Cruzers don’t see he is no different from any other career politician. Its all about him and power - not us.
Missouri keeping it’s powder dry to give to Ted in case he needs it.
heh.....
Missouri also has a caucus on April 9. I don’t know if that has any implication on the primary delegates or not.
Jeb Bush, Romney, Gramnesty, all pulling for Cruz, to get them to a brokered convention. Then they dump Ted.
Cruz is finished.
He shot his wad last night in Utah.
The upcoming states belong to Trump with possible exceptions of WI, NB, WA & OR.
That’s it.
Trump will either outrightly win the others or win a sufficient number of delegates to put him way over 1237 delegates.
I haven’t seen a fixed number of delegates on any media source. They all differ by up to 30 delegates. If Trump makes it to the convention with a few delegates less than 1237 in some sources, etc, which number does the convention consider solid and rely on? It’s almost as if you could say “within the margin of error”. Rather confusing with all the fluidity...
” Trump did better yesterday than expected in terms of margin of victory in Arizona.”
We took care of business : )
Not Trump Delegates: 774
That’s low.
“We took care of business : )”
“We?” Are you employed by the Trump campaign?
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