Posted on 03/22/2016 10:20:52 AM PDT by justlittleoleme
Political commentators noticed something interesting early on about Donald Trump's surprising sweep through the Republican primaries — the mogul seems to do better in states that let almost any voter help pick the party nominee, not just those registered to a party.
In those open primaries, Trump has come out ahead in 13 out of 16 states. In states with closed primaries, Trump won only six out of 14 states. Overall, Trump has won closed states about half as often as he's won those open states.
Both primaries in Utah and Arizona are "closed," meaning only registered Republicans can vote. They're representative of what is ahead in the next few weeks: Of the 19 remaining primaries, 13 of them will be closed. That could be bad news for Trump if he wants to cruise to the convention uncontested.
Why does Trump seem to do so much better in states with open primaries?
-snip-
The most obvious possibility is that the reality TV star is pulling in independent voters, who are free to cast votes for the Republican nominee in open primary states but not in closed primary states. That would be convincing given the popular narrative of Trump's rise, if not that exit polling doesn't show Trump pulling in an outsized share of the independent vote.
Polling suggests that Trump would actually be better off if fewer independents showed up — they are more likely to vote for Ted Cruz or Kasich, as the Washington Post pointed out this month.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
Here’s hoping we have an open election in November.
Ergo he is DRAWING NEW VOTERS INTO THE PARTY.
You know, Big Tent and all that??
Ted’s big advantage tons of dumb ass caucuses
Open primaries? I guess Florida, Louisiana, and Nevada never happened in the Land of Ted Cruz Make-Believe.
Florida closed primary, Trump 47%- Cruz 17%
He’s picked up a tool the GOPe created to maintain its power, and used it against them. Fair game.
Eventually we’ll hear that the White House just sucked Trump inside despite his lackluster campaign.
Maybe more people vote for Cruz in caucuses without Secret Ballot because their church elders make them?
Regardless of why they are voting for Ted, he is becoming less and less a viable candidate with comments like this on the Brussels terrorist attack.
Watch Cruz bash Trump over Brussels!. Remember when his supporters here on FR used to tell us how whip-smart he was, how eloquent he was, that he would smash everyone in the debates. Well this press statement is truly pathetic, and Ted is shrinking in my estimation.
But Glenn Beck tells us that "your God" wants us to vote for Ted, who we are assured is "annointed".
Seems like a pretty clear choice. Shame, he had some real potential.
Ted has a big advantage?
Florida is not an open primary. Trump won Florida 45.7% to 17.1% for Cruz. That is by 28 points for those of you in Rio Linda.
Maybe if they could transform the remaining primaries in caucuses, Ted would perform better.
Why blame Trump for open primaries?
Open primaries were sent up to help hacks like Jeb Bush and John
McCain. Too bad the rules the GOPe setup is coming back to bite them.
Exactly!
Trump also won Louisiana, Kentucky and in many states he won the Republican vote outright in exit polling. It’s a myth. Cruz has run up the score in Caucus’. That’s where most of his delegates come from
“In states with closed primaries, Trump won only six out of 14 states”
Florida was one of those... Rubio was still in the race. Splinted field
Early voting in Arizona with people still voting for those that had already exited the race, will hurt Cruz.
Wrong.
The most obvious possibility is that leftist voters know that Hillary is a lock for the Dem nomination, don't need to vote for her, and are working to pick the Republican candidate they would most like to face in the general, Trump.
I agree completely
An alternate explanation is that the GOPe can more easily manipulate votes...especially in caucus states where they have the political base and experience to manipulate and wrangle rules.
Was there something you failed to comprehend about this statement in the text: "In states with closed primaries, Trump won only six out of 14 states"? FL, LA and NV were among those six.
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