Posted on 03/21/2016 8:01:32 AM PDT by ConservingFreedom
The Republican race for the presidential nomination is down to just one man and one number: Donald Trump and 1,237 — the number of delegates required to clinch the nomination. Can Trump win 1,237 delegates by the end of the primary season on June 7? Will he be forced to plunder among the more than 100 unbound or currently uncommitted delegates who will make the trip to Cleveland in order to win on a first ballot at the Republican National Convention? Or are we all but assured of a multi-ballot convention?
Any pundit giving confident answers to these questions is full of it, so FiveThirtyEight surveyed some of the best delegate obsessives and political experts we know on how many delegates they expect Trump to win in the remaining contests. Trump has 695 delegates now, and, on average, our respondents estimate he will still be just a little bit short of 1,237 on June 7, when California wraps up the primary calendar. He might be close enough, though, that he could clinch the nomination in the six weeks between California and Cleveland.
If that’s the baseline case, however, it wouldn’t take much for Trump to deviate from it in either direction. Outperform these estimates in California, for instance, and Trump could reach or surpass 1,237 delegates on June 7. Lose a winner-take-all or winner-take-most state where these estimates have him favored, however, and Trump could be well short of a majority.
There are few truly proportional states left on the GOP’s primary calendar, so small shifts in any state can have major consequences in the delegate count. That’s why we surveyed this group. My own personal1 delegate projection took a beating Tuesday because I thought Ted Cruz would win Missouri by a small amount instead of losing it by a small amount.
In addition to Nate Silver’s and my estimates, we tried to include a diverse set of opinions from across the political spectrum. We also focused on analysts who have been following the delegate race closely and know the intricacies of the GOP’s delegate rules. Our panel included these people:
To best reflect the group consensus, we used an “olympic average” in which we discarded the highest and lowest estimates in each state and averaged the remainder. Because of this averaging process — and because we told panelists they could list probabilistic forecasts instead of deterministic ones2 — in some cases the average reflects a number of delegates that it would be mathematically impossible for Trump to achieve. For instance, our average has Trump with 15 delegates in winner-take-all Delaware, which has 16 delegates at stake. This is equivalent to saying that Trump is highly likely but not quite certain to win Delaware, according to the panel.
Overall, our average response suggests that Trump will win 513 delegates the rest of the way. When combined with the 695 he’s won so far, that means he’d fall 29 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to win on the first ballot. Here is the olympic average for each upcoming contest (we’ve left out some contests with only unbound delegates; see the footnotes for more detail):3
| DELEGATES | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| DATE | CONTEST | AVAILABLE | PROJECTED FOR TRUMP |
| 3/22 | Arizona | 58 | 58 |
| Utah | 40 | 4 | |
| American Samoa | 9 | 2 | |
| 4/5 | Wisconsin | 42 | 25 |
| 4/9 | Colorado | 34 | 7 |
| 4/16 | Wyoming | 14 | 1 |
| 4/19 | New York | 95 | 71 |
| 4/26 | Maryland | 38 | 31 |
| Connecticut | 28 | 19 | |
| Rhode Island | 19 | 10 | |
| Pennsylvania | 17 | 16 | |
| Delaware | 16 | 15 | |
| 5/3 | Indiana | 57 | 37 |
| 5/10 | Nebraska | 36 | 1 |
| West Virginia | 34 | 33 | |
| 5/17 | Oregon | 28 | 12 |
| 5/24 | Washington | 44 | 17 |
| 6/7 | California | 172 | 93 |
| New Jersey | 51 | 51 | |
| South Dakota | 29 | 0 | |
| Montana | 27 | 0 | |
| New Mexico | 24 | 10 | |
| New Trump delegates | 513 | ||
| Delegates to date | 695 | ||
| Total | 1,208 | ||
Trump projections based on an olympic average of estimates from Nate Silver, Harry Enten, Adam Geller (National Research Inc.), Daniel Nichanian (Daily Kos), Henry Olsen (Ethics and Public Policy Center), Margie Omero (Purple Insights), Patrick Ruffini (Echelon Insights) and David Wasserman (Cook Political Report).
If Trump does, in fact, get 1,208 delegates, he still might win on a first ballot. He would need only a fraction of the delegates that are currently unbound (or will be unbound) to reach 1,237.
Who exactly are these unbound or uncommitted delegates? Some, like the six from the Virgin Islands, were elected by voters to be “uncommitted,” but they may commit to a candidate closer to the convention. Others, like the 54 Pennsylvania district delegates, are automatically unbound and have been elected as unbound for decades (see: when Gerald Ford beat Ronald Reagan in the 1976 primary). These delegates are free to choose whichever candidate they want on all ballots.4 In addition, some delegates from candidates who have withdrawn from the race may become available to Trump, depending on the state’s rules. Although it’s hard to know Trump’s exact chance of getting 29 delegates from this group, Trump probably would have a decent shot at reaching 1,237.
All of the respondents agree that Trump is not likely to get close to 1,237 delegates before June 7, when California and four other states vote. The closest Trump came was 1,088 delegates. And even the most optimistic Trump projection has him hitting 1,244 after all the states have voted. That leaves Trump with very little room for error to reach a majority of delegates without at least some of the currently unpledged or uncommitted delegates coming to his aid.
Part of the reason we’ll have to wait so long is how the rest of the calendar breaks down. The month of April, which includes a lot of primaries in the Northeast, should be good for Trump. May has far fewer contests, and Trump is expected to do poorly in Nebraska, Oregon and Washington.
Not surprisingly, our respondents’ estimates differed greatly in a number of states. If you’re looking for the states that could be make-or-break for Trump, then look to Wisconsin, New York, Indiana and California. In all four, Trump’s expected number of delegates won differed by at least 36 among the respondents.
Indeed, there was a somewhat bimodal distribution in the total number of delegates our respondents expected Trump to reach. Three of us have Trump earning from 1,136 to 1,156, and three have him winning from 1,237 to 1,244. (The other two respondents have him in the 1200s but short of 1,237.) That may be why you read some pieces that seem to indicate that Trump is well on his way to winning on the first ballot, but other people seem to think there’s very little chance of it. Smart people disagree. And a single upset in a winner-take-all state could change the map significantly. Our panel has Trump winning all 58 delegates in winner-take-all Arizona, for instance, which votes Tuesday. If he lost there, it could make it very hard to get to 1,237.
Perhaps what becomes clearest is that there is still a lot we don’t know. We’ll have to watch and see if there are any clues in the voting over the next month. For now, hang on for a wild ride.
Nate is being low in California. He’s a lib and hates Trump, so take what he has to project with a grain of salt.
In other news, Cruz will be out of contention for an outright win of the nomination 4/19.
538 still refuses to assign the 12 delegates to Trump for winning the state in Missouri. They have an obvious agenda to keep the numbers for Trump as artificially depreciated as possible to maintain the aura of hope that he can be stopped.
If anything, I look at this projection as a worst-case scenario for Trump, and even considering it as such, with these numbers Trump goes into the convention with an enormous delegate lead.
This is all perceptual posturing from the lib media and GOPe at this point.
Trump will reach 1237 by May.
Nah, they’ll just change the rules on him. Expect them to play dirty and put in a “nice guy” candidate who will then effectively endorse Hillary (as McCain did for Obama when he told everyone they had nothing to fear from an Obama Presidency a few days before the election)
[Cruz supporter]
I predicted (before Iowa) Trump with about 1,300 delegates at the start of the convention. Enough for the nomination on the first round. Still have not backed off of that number.
GOPe is trying to be too smart by half and support Cruz only enough to deny Trump the first round votes. Kinda like playing chicken with a water fall. Trying to see how close you can get before you get swept over. I dont think that tactic will work.
BTW, have said and continue to say that I can hold my nose and vote for Trump in the General. If the GOPe pulls shenanigans and nominates someone other than Trump or Cruz, I will vote 3rd party.
Nobody disputes that - the question addressed was whether he goes in with 1237+.
Saw that too. You would think that he could easily see that there is no way PA has two less delegates than RI!
Many of these states are winner-take-all. If Trump sweeps them, he could easily reach 1,236.
On the other hand, if Cruz wins California, Pennsylvania, etc., he could easily top Trump, making it very easy for uncommitteds to roll his way, and avoid a brokered convention.
THIS IS NOT A PREDICTION. I don’t want to get into arguments about whether Cruz has a shot in California, Pennsylvania, etc. I’m only saying what’s possible.
I believe it was around this time in 2012 that Romney started coasting and it was end of April when he finally hit the magic number. I'm thinking Trump might need the June 7 primaries to put him over the top but he should get there. The people of Ohio definitely dealt Trump a blow by giving Kasich his vanity win. I hope Kasich gets crushed in the rest of the contests.
Ditto.
As soon as it is mathematically impossible for Cruz to win on the first ballot he should drop out.
Otherwise he just proves what a GOPe tool he really is.
I like his chances. I think the wild card is how he’ll do along the West Coast, California, Oregon and Washington. Those states are very liberal for the most part and mighty remote from his bases of operations in New York and Florida, but all of the real liberals are of course not voting in the Republican primary, and his combination of moderation on social issues along with his America-first trade, immigration and foreign policy I would think would resonate out West far more than Cruz’s traditional Republican neoconservativism wrapped in social conservative dressing.
He will. As I mentioned, they’re short-changing Trump 12 delegates currently, and as pburgh01 mentioned, they’ve shorted PA by 50+ delegates due to their “accidental” dyslexia.
They are desperate to make it look like there’s hope for the #NeverTrump idiots.
That much we can count on.
Good catch. Even by his calculations, that more than meets the 1237 target.
Apologies for going off topic..but does anyone know when Trump is speaking to AIPAC, and will the speech air live..and where?
THanks
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