If Kasich stays in I don’t see anyway Trump doesn’t get 1237+. Hell even if it’s Trump v Cruz Trump still gets 1237 by my math.
At best Kasich might peel a district or two at best here and there and that’s best case scenario and that’s why he’s here to slow down the trump delegate count, but I don’t see it preventing Trump from an outright win.
I know also that while some folks in the party want to stop Trump at all costs, I fully expect calmer heads to prevail should a contested convention happen. If Trump is sitting just under 1237 and the next closest person is a full 25% behind and Kasich won’t even have 1/3 of the votes needed... I doubt highly that cooler heads won’t prevail.
The assumption that Trumps delegates will at large defect on a second round vote I think may be premature... Some may but are delegates for others going to stay with a lost candidate or will enough realize the party will be dead if they go against the voters...
Time will tell but I see all this as trumped up political theater.
“Time will tell but I see all this as trumped up political theater.”
I hope you’re right. Maybe it’s a way for the candidates to squeeze more money from the donors. Also a way for the networks as they can help continue the ‘controversy’
Trump represents an existential threat to the operation of the uni-party, the twin principles being the maintenance of the welfare/warfare state.
Hillary promises the continuance of existing US policy with respect to war, immigration, cultural change, etc, which is why the GOPe views her as a better than Trump.
From their perspective, it's worth destroying the party (in the short-term), rather than have Trump forever alter their position & influence.