In a 3 person race 42% is the magic number.
In a 2 person race, DT is over 50%.
If you want to talk ceiling...it looks like Cruz is about 30%. Not good. I can’t imagine what a Cruz supporter is feeling looking at the polls.
Everybody who was going to break for Trump already has. He has frontrunner allure that assists him. Something is holding the steady 57% who won’t/can’t support him, and that thing is called NEGATIVES, which have hounded him the whole race. Any more mistakes he makes (or scandals) sends those negatives higher and support lower. Expect Hillary to reel back a point or two of his RAT support by the convention. Cruz has no RAT base to keep committed to him.
Only 43% of Texans voted for Cruz. He’s despised all over the country.
“If you want to talk ceiling...it looks like Cruz is about 30%. Not good. I can’t imagine what a Cruz supporter is feeling looking at the polls.”
A lot of Cruz supporters appear to be shielding their eyes from the math, and are grinding forward on dogged faith alone. Others are choosing to confront What Is, and are adjusting their thinking accordingly.
I think we’ve all been there, at other times, in other races.