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TIME TO DROP OUT? Ted Cruz Needs 87% of Remaining Delegates to Win Nomination
GP ^ | 03/17/16 | Jim Hoft

Posted on 03/17/2016 6:14:55 AM PDT by Enlightened1

After Super Tuesday 2.0 Donald Trump is on track to secure the Republican nomination.

trump cruz 2

Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) would need 87% of remaining primary voters to win the nomination.
It might be time for Ted Cruz to drop out and endorse Donald J. Trump?

The New York Times reported:

Donald J. Trump’s series of victories on Tuesday extended his delegate lead and forced Senator Marco Rubio of Florida out of the presidential race. Mr. Trump’s path to winning enough delegates to secure the Republican nomination is not assured, but he is in a strong position.

Here are some ways the Republican nominating contest could unfold. Try adjusting the sliders to see how the outcomes change. Each line in the chart represents one possible outcome.

If Mr. Trump maintains his current level of support in the remaining races, he would almost certainly secure the nomination.

After Tuesday’s contests, no other candidate retains a real chance of capturing the delegates required to win the nomination outright. Mr. Rubio dropped out, Gov. John Kasich of Ohio is too far behind, and Senator Ted Cruz of Texas would need to win the vast majority of the remaining delegates — a near impossibility.

 

 

(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; News/Current Events; Philosophy; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016gopprimary; badmath; cruz; delegates; exposingted; nomination; stupid; unenlightened; unworthyoffr; win
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To: ScottinVA

Exactly, Trump will get the 1237 and then you anti-Constitution BLM supporters can go vote for Hillary.


101 posted on 03/17/2016 6:49:42 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (Hillary's a criminal.)
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To: John Valentine

How is a Cruz a guaranteed winner? How many states in Dixie did he win?


102 posted on 03/17/2016 6:49:53 AM PDT by Sybeck1 (Only they can beat Hillary, but for some reason they can't beat him)
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To: Enlightened1
Trump seems to have a ceiling of about 50%.
If this is so, Cruz has a chance to win the nomination before the Convention... if Kasich drops out.
If it is NOT true (as every Trump supporter is yelling right now), then Trump can win before the convention if Kasich drops out.
Kasich needs 1095 delegates to reach 1237, and there are only 1079 available now, so he cannot win before the Convention. Kasich's ONLY reason to stay is to PREVENT either of our main options, Trump or Cruz, from earning the spot before the GOPe can steal it from them both, deny the GOP voters' choice, and name their own milquetoast to hand the win to Hillary so that the UniParty can continue unscathed in a year when 2/3 of both parties were totally against the Establishment.

It is Kasich who should drop out, and let Trump v Cruz happen, and let the GOP voters pick their candidate, not the establishment delegates and the RNC in a Convention.

Every path ahead leads to a Hillary win in NOV, except a Cruz win before the Convention. Trump rarely keeps the leads that he has in the polls, and he only polls even with Hillary. Cruz polls ahead of Hillary ny 8 points, and often exceeds his polling (8 wins so far instead of the 1 he was supposed to get).

103 posted on 03/17/2016 6:50:01 AM PDT by Teacher317 (We have now sunk to a depth at which restatement of the obvious is the first duty of intelligent men)
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To: LS
Anyone thinks we can’t beat Cankles like a rented mule, look at these shocking primary stats at post #20.

Good analysis, thanks.

However, hate and fear are powerful motivators, and Trump inspires these in people at a level not seen before. I would say that is the x-factor, i.e. the Dem turnout inspired by fear and loathing of Trump, as opposed to love for Cankles.

104 posted on 03/17/2016 6:50:09 AM PDT by nwrep
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To: Ancesthntr

You can’t blame them...the GOPe punishes states for early elections. Just try to go first and see what happens. Florida tried to go a little early last cycle and they only got 1/2 the delegates to the convention. Plus someone has to be last.


105 posted on 03/17/2016 6:50:47 AM PDT by for-q-clinton (If at first you don't succeed keep on sucking until you do succeed)
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To: ScottinVA

Another construct taken from baseball - 1,237 gets Trump the Nomination and 1,236 doesn’t mean sh-t.


106 posted on 03/17/2016 6:50:49 AM PDT by Kaisersrsic
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To: ScottinVA

So if you say you want to go swimming, I’m putting words in your mouth if I say you’re going to get wet....sure.


107 posted on 03/17/2016 6:51:29 AM PDT by papertyger (-/\/\/\-)
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To: papertyger
What IS useful is perspective.

In other words... a wish.

Do tell... if polls are so useless, why has Trump referred to them with such regularity? What do you know that he doesn't?

108 posted on 03/17/2016 6:52:19 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Breathe, Donald.... Breathe.)
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To: Liz

He/ll be lucky if he retains his Senate seat.

**********

IMO, Cruz never intended to be in the Senate more that one term. Look at his work hisotry
and it shows he’s always on the move. Moving from position to position as he climbs the
ladder. He’s not a true leader but rather a change agent.


109 posted on 03/17/2016 6:52:51 AM PDT by deport
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To: John Valentine
The Establishment will NEVER give it to Cruz.

So why would you want Cruz to stay in only to give it to Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan?

If Cruz offers to step down, then he can probably get something he wants like a lifetime appointment with a U.S. Supreme Court seat.

110 posted on 03/17/2016 6:52:56 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: ScottinVA
If you're so supremely confident of Trump's eventual winning the nomination, just chill out and wait a couple more weeks.

Exactly.

If Trump is so inevitable, it costs him nothing to spend the next month or so putting Cruz away.

111 posted on 03/17/2016 6:53:15 AM PDT by Republican Landslide (People do not like being threatened. They resent being threatened.)
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To: Sybeck1

Cruz got 17% in FL and 13% in OH.
So his supporters need to tell us what other blue states he’ll flip in Nov to win.

When Team Cruz first came on the scene at FR, I asked them “this guy got a lower % of the Nov 2012 vote in Texas than Mediocre Mitt did”. What makes you think he has a prayer in a national POTUS election. They called me a moron.


112 posted on 03/17/2016 6:53:43 AM PDT by nascarnation
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To: JerseyDvl
Exactly, Trump will get the 1237 and then you anti-Constitution BLM supporters can go vote for Hillary.

Wrong, trumpette. I have said from the beginning I will support whomever is the nominee, because Hillary must at all costs be kept from the levers of power.

113 posted on 03/17/2016 6:53:50 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Breathe, Donald.... Breathe.)
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To: Enlightened1

Its time for unity in our Republican Party. The Democrats are delighted at this infighting and barking at each other. If we don’t pull together, Hillary will waltz right into the White House. Republicans in all parts of our country have spoken. Donald Trump will be our candidate.


114 posted on 03/17/2016 6:54:00 AM PDT by armydawg505
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To: TexasFreeper2009
The primary is over.

Not by a long shot. The process is not over until someone gets the support of 1237 delegates. And right now it looks like no one will hit that mark before the convention.

115 posted on 03/17/2016 6:55:06 AM PDT by CA Conservative (Texan by birth, Californian by circumstance)
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To: tacticalogic

ooooo... the old “I know you are, but what am I!”

Who are you, PeeWee Herman?


116 posted on 03/17/2016 6:55:25 AM PDT by papertyger (-/\/\/\-)
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To: Republican Landslide
If Trump is so inevitable, it costs him nothing to spend the next month or so putting Cruz away.

Yep... I note a lot of insecurity among the trumpettes... they're itching to have Cruz just shut down before 21 states have voted. If the math were reversed and Cruz were in the lead, they'd be squealing like stuck pigs at anyone who suggests Trump should call it a day.

117 posted on 03/17/2016 6:56:10 AM PDT by ScottinVA (Breathe, Donald.... Breathe.)
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To: SampleMan

“That leaves 1076 delegates remaining.

If Cruz picks up >62% of the remaining delegates, he will have more delegates than Trump entering the convention.”


Trump has a substantial lead in AZ, which is 58 delegates and is next week. NJ will similarly go for Trump, 51 more delegates. Now you have 967 delegates remaining in all of the other states (including NY and CA, by the way), and Cruz will need to make up (673-411) = 262 +58 +51 = 371. 967-371 = 596. So he has to win 371 + (596/2) = 669 out of 967 = 69.2%. And NY and CA are the 2 big states left at that point, both of which are likely to be heavily Trump. Sorry, the math is very much against Cruz - he simply isn’t going to get nearly 70% of the remaining delegates.

Let’s look at something else: can Cruz win on the first ballot? He needs 1,237 and has 411. Thus, he needs 826 out of 1,076 remaining. That’s 76.76%. Back out AZ and NJ only, and he loses 109 more delegates. Now he has to win 826 out of (1,076-109 = 967), or 85.4%. Add to that problem the fact that Trump will overwhelmingly win NY (probably 70-75 out of the 95 delegates), and do well in CA (at least 50% of the 172 at stake) and you have a mathematically impossible situation for Cruz...which begs the question of why is he still in the race? Cruz has (properly, IMHO) made it clear that if a candidate simply cannot win the nomination because the math prevents it, then they should leave for the good of the Party and the country. Shouldn’t the same standard apply to him?


118 posted on 03/17/2016 6:56:35 AM PDT by Ancesthntr ("The right to buy weapons is the right to be free." A. E. van Vogt)
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To: armydawg505

Amen!


119 posted on 03/17/2016 6:56:56 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: ScottinVA

Then why be such an MSM parrot?.. You sound like whiny liberals who are obviously wrong and transparently hypocritical. Just the Canadian way?


120 posted on 03/17/2016 6:57:09 AM PDT by JerseyDvl (Hillary's a criminal.)
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