Why — and how — Russia won in Syria

reuters.com ^ | March 15, 2016 | Josh Cohen

[Trumpinator]

Why — and how — Russia won in Syria

By Josh Cohen March 15, 2016

Here’s what Russia achieved — and why it was so successful.

First — and most importantly — Russian bombing turned the tide of the war in Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s favor.

Second, Putin recently achieved an important diplomatic objective by forcing the United States to acknowledge that Russia plays a key role in determining Syria’s future.

Third, Putin responded to Turkey’s shoot down of a Russian jet by humiliating Ankara, an emerging rival in the Middle East and Central Asia. Putin also grievously wounded Turkey’s key rebel allies and close ethnic cousins, the Syrian Turkmen. Turkmen rebels reportedly killed the Russian pilots shot down by Turkish jets, and bombing the Turkmen allows Putin to both avenge these deaths — thereby playing to Russian public opinion — while degrading the effectiveness of one of Assad’s enemies.

Putin also hit Turkey where it hurts by playing the “Kurdish card” against Ankara. Turkey worries that Syria’s Kurds, the Peoples’ Protection Units, or YPG, are close to establishing an autonomous state in northern Syria, running along the Turkish-Syrian border.

Finally, Putin’s Syrian campaign has contributed to weakening the European Union.

Looking at the scope of Putin’s Syrian “wins,” one major question jumps out: How did Russia manage to confound the naysayers by succeeding?

[Rurudyne]

I can tell you one very specific thing Russia “did” that helped them secure these successes.

They did NOT, as far as I know, announce any timeline for withdrawal or give indication of their full range of goals whereby their foes might know how long they would have to hold out for.

[PGR88]

The ham-handedness and stupidity of Obama and his bureaucracy is amazing.

yet, they also callously engaged in, and supported a useless proxy war against Assad and Syria that Amnesty International calls one of the great humanitarian disasters of our age.

Stupid and brutal - give Obama another peace prize.

[Navy Patriot]

Finally, Putin’s Syrian campaign has contributed to weakening the European Union.

George Soros is complaining that he didn't get what he paid for, as is the house of Saud.

[Tupelo]

Lost another one.
How many has that been since 1956?
We do not win wars.
How many treaty negotiations have we won since 1988?
We do not win negotiations

We need a General and a Negotiator in the White House
Or A General that can hire a great Negotiator.
Or a Negotiator who will hire a great general
Since we do not have a General running, I suggest we elect the Negotiator.

[BobL]

Below are the RULES OF ENGAGEMENT for Russian troops in the Syria territory:

(the end)

[5th MEB]

Also the Ruskies don’t give a damn about OBASTARDS stupid “don’t hurt or upset anybody” Rules Of Engagement.
Anybody who got in the Russians way got dead real quick.
“COLLATERAL DAMAGE, VAT ISS DIS TING YOU CALL COLLATERAL DAMAGE”?
“IF MOOSE AND SQUIRREL GET IN WAY, WE KEEL THEM”.

[allendale]

Sorry but something is not quite right. Russia agreed to “peace talks” and pulled out just they were sealing the Turkish/Syrian border, Aleppo was about to fall, and the Saudi funded jihadist “rebels” were on the verge of disintegrating.Would not be surprised if the Saudis paid the cash strapped Russians a huge indemnity to withdraw at this time. The Saudis themselves are vastly overextended and cash short themselves. However if their efforts in Syria had collapsed, the consequences for the House of Saud would have been dire.

[Trumpinator]

Putin is a Byzantine. He always leaves an out so his enemy does not need to fight to the death. He left a small part of the border open so that Turkey will not be forced to invade Syria making things m ore complex. The border is now easily restricted by the Kurds. He leave Assad needy rather than victorious so they will always have a need of Russia.

< At the same time Russia knows the Assad regime can't beat the Kurds or force all of Syria back as it was. It is best for Russia to make a deal with the Kurds (which Russia did) and with the Syrian rebels that come from the old Ba'athist regimes (ex Ba'athist units that defected).

The Saudi backed groups are Islamist and a joint Kurdish, ex Ba'athist rebels and Assad govt forces will wipe them out once a peace deal is set up.

[Krosan]

Russian GDP of 2015 was $1236m. It has fallen more than 40% from from 2013 of $2075m.

That kind of Russian “winning” I can take. Them having less and less money they’d use for doing evil anyway.

For comparison US GDP in 2015 was $18B

I got the numbers from here: http://knoema.com/nwnfkne/world-gdp-ranking-2015-data-and-charts

[McGruff]

They ignored the climate change impact?
Didn’t use environmentally friendly bullets?
Failed to warn ISIS before attacking them?

[Jimmy Valentine]

I think you are right about that. Some cash, some effective violence,some political pressure, all to degrade and demean friend and or alike. Right out of the playbook of Constantine Paleogus.

[PIF]

I think that was Plan B. Plan A was for Assad to step down eventually making Putin a peace maker etc, but Assad put the nix on that and so Plan B as in: See ya’. As a side bonus, Putin got to show off some nifty new (for export) mil hardware, without the disadvantage of having it destroyed by old tech.

[allendale]

Putin is doing what he perceives to be in Russia’s best interests. Nevertheless there were Christians,women, secularists, and non Sunni peoples who found real protection, hope and solace when the Russians definitively intervened. Not so today.

[wolfman]

Makes you wonder if Russia made a deal with Saudi Arabia. Like linking their oil to the ruble instead of the dollar or something.

[PIF]

Read this:

Putin Carried Out Threat to Assad and Withdrew Forces: Louay Hussein
http://syrianobserver.com/EN/Interviews/30727/Putin_Carried_Out_Threat_Assad_Withdrew_Forces_Louay_Hussein/

[Cronos]

The reason for that agreement was:

• Assad's troops had pulled out a stunning series of victories -- they needed rest
• also time to consolidate what was available in-hand
• the Kurds get time to crush the link to Turkey and join up with the rest of Kurdistan
• Assad gets to look good giving civilians in aleppo a chance to escape
• Al-Nusra Front (the moderates) and ISlamic state are not in the list of treaty signers so still get bombed

[Cronos]

If the Saud's efforts in Syria collapsed (and they will), it would not be dire for them. If their massacres in Yemen failed to oust the Houthis, THEN the house of Saud would fail.

Syria is mostly Qatar's game

[Cronos]

well, in Syria - Good. In Crimea - mixed. In Eastern Ukraine - Evil. In the bAltics - Evil. SO, a mixed bag.

[Cronos]

Not really -- Assad will stay. What will happen is:

1. Assad controls the western part of Syria and the sea-coast -- most of the population and nearly all the cities are here
2. the Kurds get a continuous territory in the north, separating the Turks from the Syrians and also giving land for a pipeline to the Mediterranean.
3. Putin gets to present himself as the protector of Christendom