2016-0316 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

FR | March 16. 2016 | Jeff Head

[Jeff Head]

2016-0316 Presidential Primary Election Numbers & Analysis

(click on image for full resolution)

These presidential primary numbers and analysis include the primaries from the Tuesday, March 15, 2016 contests for the GOP and DNC.

On the Republican side, this included Florida, Ohio, North carolina, Missouri, Illinois, and the Northern Marian Islands. On the Democrat side, it included Florida, Ohio, North carolina, Missouri, and

Illinois.

GOP Results:
Donald Trump won Florida, North Carolina, Missouri, Illinois, and the Northern Marian Islands. Ted cruz made the contests in Missouri and North Carolina very close. In Missouri, the difference amounted to

only one-fourth of one percent. In North Carolina, the difference was three and one half percent in Trump's favor. John Kasich won his home state of Ohio by nine and one half percentage points.

The big loser on March 15th was Marco Rubio, who finished 2nd in his home state, but lost there by over nineteen percentage points, and who then placed fourth in all of the other races. This resulted in

Marco Rubio announcing, at the end of the night, that he was suspending his candidacy for the 2016 GOP Nomination.

(click on image for full resolution)

This has resulted in Donald Trump having a 7.5 million popular votes compared to just under 5.5 million for Ted Cruz, about 3.4 million for Marco Rubio, and now over 2.7 million for John Kasich. Altogether

over 19.7 million people have voted in the GOP Primaries, which continue to set records for overall turnout.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

(click on image for full resolution)

A total of 367 delegates were available on Tuesday, March 15, 2016, for the various GOP candidates. At the end of the night, according to these numbers, Donald Trump was the big winner amassing an

additional 221 delegates. This now gives him a total of 679 delegates...well over half of those needed for the nomination.

Although he did not win a single race, Ted cruz continued to accumlate delegates in the states that were not winner take all. Altogether he accunlated another 64 delegates, bringin his total to 470

delegates.

Marco Rubio accumulated only 4 delegates for the evening, bringing his total to 167, where he ends up with his suspeneded campaign.

John Kasich, as a reult of winning his home state of Ohio, which was a winner take all state, accumulated 77 delegates. This brings his total count to 137 delegates.

GOP Analysis:
Although he did not win Ohio, Donald Trump's victories in all of the other contests further punctuated his broad support...despite a phenominal number of negative advertisements that were run against him,

patrticularly in Florida. It had little effect as Trummp won Florida by almost twenty percent in any case.

By winning 221 delegates without Ohio, Donald Trump established himself as the almost sure winner of the GOP nomination.

Ted Cruz had a disappointing night. He expected to win two of the contests (IL and MO) and place well in a third (NC). As it was, he ran very close in two contests (MO and NC) as mentioned, but still did

not win one race on March 15th. His delegate count, which had been about 100 behind Trump, now has fallen off to over 200 delegates behind Trump. At this point it is extremely unlikely that Ted Cruz can

win enough delegates to overtake Donald Trump and win the nomination outright.

It is possible for Cruz to continue forward competing and probably win another four or five states. If he does that, it is possible that his delegate count when combined with that of Kasich and Rubio, could

keep Trump from an outright win before the convention.

But such a course would deeply divide the party, and almost assure a Democratic win in November if a fight is pressed on the convetnion floor to deny Trump the nomination.

It is my opinion, at this point, that the best thing Ted Cruz could do would be to wait until his and Donald Trump's combined total of delegates climbs over the threshold for nomination, (and this will

almost assuredly occur by the end of March) and then make a deal with Trump where Ted cruz commits his delegates to Trump in exchange for Cruz becoming the VP selection for Donald Trump. Doing this would accomplish several important things:

1. It would unite the party well before the convention.
2. It would create a clear, overwhelming victory in delegates and popular votes for the two anti-GOP Establishment candidates.
3. It would avoid a convetion fight and a deeply divided party.
4. It would allow the GOP to focus on the November genberal election starting in April

In my own estimation, this would be the best course for the GOP and for the country.

Will it occurr to the Cruz campaign and to Ted Cruz himself to do this? we shall see.

As stated, Marco Rubio had a disasterous night. And everyone saw it coming. Rubio should have ended his campagn before his humiliation in his own home state of Florida. But he could not pull back.

Quite frankly, it is my opinion that in an environment, where so much frustration and anger has developed against the GOP establishment (and with good reason), that Marco Rubio assured his own fate before

the campaign even started. When he was elected as a TEA Party supporter and having made promises about the size of government and immigration, and then immediately threw in with the Gang of Eight on

immigrtion reform, he betrayed his voters and they never fogot. In so doing, he framed himself as the very GOPe that he spoke against in his concession speech last night.

John Kasich accomplished his principle goal for the last two months in winning his home state. It is true he denied Trump those delegates, but Trump's otherwise very strong evening discounted most of the

downside of Kasich's victory.

with Trump riding the swell of his good perfromances since super Tuesday, he is going forwward without breaking much of a sweat over the loss in Ohio. John Kasich on the other hand, has played his hand.

There is really nowhere else for him to go after winning Ohio. He will try and parlay that victory into some sort of momentum, but my own believe is that there is no place for that momentum to go.

Kasich is likely to continue on in the hopes of Cruz doing well enough to lead to a convetion fight where Kasich believes his one hundred and something delgates can become an issue.

That takes us back to my recommendation for Cruz. If Cruz throws in with Trump soon and unites the voters in the GOP, then all of the drama about the convetnion goes away. And IT NEEDS TO GO AWAY.

DNC Results:
On the Democratic side, the biggest story is that Bernie did not win a single state. All of the possible momentum he developed recently in winning Michigan, was let out of the bag last night.

Clinton won every single state. There was no rust belt surpirse in Ohio or Illinois.

It is true that Bernie continues to garner delegates, but Clinton has set herself on a trend line now that will certainly lead to her nomination...short of the same issue she has had since the start.

(click on image for full resolution)

Hillary Clinton's popular vote has widened to over eight and one-half million total votes. Bernie is well behind her at just over six million votes.

Overall, the DNC primaries have attracted over 14.7 million voters. But compared to the GOP's 19.7 million, the Democrats continue to lag behind in turnout. This simply has to be a concern for the

DNC...and that is with Bernie exciting the young people. Without Benrie's sociailistic utopia appeal to the young, the DNC turnout would be appalling.

In terms of the principle prize...delegates:

(click on image for full resolution)

On March 15th there were a total of just under 800 delegates available in the Democratic races. Hillary won right at 500 of them while Bernie won 300. The result of last night was Bernie falling another

200 delgates behind Hillary.

In total, Hillary now has right at 1,470 delegates who are committed to her from the contests already held. Bernie has 870...six hundred behind Hillary.

when you consider super delegates from other states that have not voted yet, but which have committed to Hillary, Hillary's lead grows by a couple of hundred more.

DNC Analysis:
Bernie Sander's disappointing night punctuates the reality that he is simply not going to be able to overtake Hillary's delegate count as a result of the Primary elections.

But Hillary's email scandal continues to be a shadow over Hillary's success. Everyone is waiting for the results of the FBI investigation. Should the decide to recommend prosecuting Hillary...everything

would change.

This is why it is likely that Bernie will remain engaged no matter how many delegates Hillary wins.

Summarizing the DNC side. Bernie Sanders had a bad night on March 15th, and it means that the primary race, short of an FBI announcment against Hillary is going to produce a Hillary Clinton DNC nomination

for President. The only potential game changer remains the FBI investigation.

OTHER DATA:

Here are some other charts of interest.

GOP Overal Popular vote Percentage chart, followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote, followed by a map of the current states won:

(click on image for full resolution)

(click on image for full resolution)

(click on image for full resolution)

DNC Overal Popular vote Percentage vote chart followed by the chart of each contest in terms of percentage vote:

(click on image for full resolution)

(click on image for full resolution)

(click on image for full resolution)

[Jane Long]

Great news on the Reoublican primaries turn out.

Paging Tokyo Rove, please pick up the courtesy phone. It’s LS calling, with a YUGE dose of reality.

[Jeff Head]

Amen LS.

In my analysis above and the spreadsheet that accompanies it, I point out this very thing.

But by my numbers, through March 15th, the four GOP candidates had 19,785,000 votes.

Hillary and Bernie had 14,700,000 votes.

Even then, turnout difference is staggering, and the disparity will continue to grow throughout the remaining races..

Whether people like Rove want to admit it or not, Donald Trump is a big part of that turnout, and I believe it will be reflected in the general election as well.

[going hot]

Head of cabbage would be an improvement.

Seriously, what are people thinking, hiring the wife of the impeached rapist's enabler, that is also the most corrupt, lying, cheating, treasonous, sellout, racist, socialist, no scratch that, wanna be dictator, carpet bagging know nothing dirt bag for president of the US?

[central_va]

Objectively, what is Hillary’s platform? What issues is she running on?

[nascarnation]

Hillary says “vote for me because I’m Hillary”.
What other reason do you peons need?

[going hot]

The only issue she is running on is say and do whatever it takes to keep on keeping on, continuing the grifting, the outright theft of the treasury in pieces, in any way she can.

Remember, this is the legal mind that was fired during the Watergate investigation for making shit up.

[US_MilitaryRules]

And they keep saying that Trump will lose. lol. I think any repub is going to win hands down.

[GOPJ]

LS did you do the State by State differences? Great way to show we CAN win...

If you’re the person who set them all out - do you have a link?

Thanks.

[LS]

I did not. This time around, I was only looking at the gross numbers.

[higgmeister]

It is my opinion, at this point, that the best thing Ted Cruz could do would be to wait until his and Donald Trump's combined total of delegates climbs over the threshold for nomination, (and this will almost assuredly occur by the end of March) and then make a deal with Trump where Ted cruz commits his delegates to Trump in exchange for Cruz becoming the VP selection for Donald Trump. Doing this would accomplish several important things:

It would unite the party well before the convention.
It would create a clear, overwhelming victory in delegates and popular votes for the two anti-GOP Establishment candidates.
It would avoid a convention fight and a deeply divided party.
It would allow the GOP to focus on the November general election starting in April

---

I have admired you on this forum for many years but, I will never vote for Cruz because he is not eligible. Cruz on the ticket would kill my vote. This idea is insane.

[higgmeister]

Cruz is not electable. And he is not eligible.

Frankenstein's monster would make more sense. Trump/Cruz is a nightmare.

[Jeff Head]

We disagree. I believe Cruz is eligible.

His mother was a US citizen and of age when he was born. despite being born in Canada, with his mother being an of age US citizen meeting the other criteria of residency in the US, he became a natural born citizen.

A good comparison would be against Obama if he were born in Kenya.

His mother was a US citizen, but at the time of his birth I do not think she met either the age, or amount of time in residency in the US.

Which is why they have gone to such extremes to says he was born in Hawaii.

Anyhow, I respect your right to disagree with that.

But I believe if it goes to court, that the Supreme Court will find him eligible for the reasons I just gave.

And perhaps that will happen.

Trump himself, early in the campaign, before Cruz started doing well, indicated that his lawyers had looked at it and that his lawyers told him there was no problem. I believe he actually said this in the 1st debate.

Later, when Cruz started doing better, Trump opened this back up. And in that debate when questioned why, to his credit he said that it was because Cruz was doing better.

Anyhow, a Trump/Cruz ticket would do all of the things I mentioned earlier. And since I believe he is eligible, I would support it.

If the Supreme Court ruled differently, that would be a different matter.

Perhaps we will get the chance to find out.

[mrsmith]

Excellent again!

Cruz came so close Tuesday- but no cigar.

[jonrick46]

Landslide!

In my neck of the woods, we know a landslide . . .

[V K Lee]

Do enjoy your reports once awake and after that first shot of caffeine. There is too much information to absorb w/o the caffeine to help open the eyes!

Many things brought into notice and looking at certain incidents from different perspectives.

Keep on keeping on. Thank you for the article and the ping.

[Lakeshark]

Great analysis. Thanks.

[The Mayor]

BUMP!

[higgmeister]

Please consider the fact that there are millions like me that know he is not eligible or would be influenced by a media campaign indicating Cruz is not eligible and therefore will refuse to vote for him even on a Trump/Cruz ticket.

That is how your plan would break down.