1. Subtract all of the U.S. manufacturing output tied to exports, since they would not exist in that scenario with no foreign trade.
2. Adjust the number of employees in other nations that produced the manufactured products that were exported to the U.S. to account for higher levels of productivity and automation here in the U.S.
And this is just the start. It doesn't even account for changes in demand for various products with different pricing in place under a "U.S. only" manufacturing scenario.
I think it's a safe bet that the employee counts would still be lower. The reason for this is simple. Over time, growth in overall productivity in the U.S. has outpaced growth in population -- often by a wide margin.
I used the trade deficit in goods number which is a net figure.
2. Adjust the number of employees in other nations that produced the manufactured products that were exported to the U.S. to account for higher levels of productivity and automation here in the U.S.
Invalid to make such an adjustment. US firms set up state-of-the-art production in foreign nations. Plus, the more labor intensive production jobs were moved to cheap labor nations first.
I think it's a safe bet that the employee counts would still be lower.
A very dangerous bet. Yeah, productivity has increased in the US and the biggest factor is probably that most of the less productive, and more labor intensive, manufacturing was sent to cheap labor nations over the years.