Posted on 03/07/2016 9:25:54 PM PST by NYRepublican72
Tuesday March 8, 2016
150 of 2,472 delegates at stake
For primary dates and times:
Official GOP websites for states.
For delegate allocation:
The Green Papers
Frontloading Blogspot
For polling data:
Real Clear Politics
No data from HI but looks Trump. Trump will definitely win MS and might eke it out in MI.
Only win of the night for Cruz could be ID.
I think MI will be in line with the polling. It’s one thing to have polling off by a bit in states like ID where the polling is spotty at best. It’s quite another to have the polling off significantly in a state like MI where all the major outfits have polled the state.
Agreed that ID plays to Cruz. HI is really in the who knows, who cares category. There were more delegates out of PR than HI. No one has really campaigned there.
Very little polling outside of Michigan, so really could be wild. Large numbers of undecided in most of these polls, so if last minute deciders all swing one way, it could really cause some unexpected results.
Hawaii will be interesting since there are so few Republicans (44 Dems to 7 GOP in the House, 24 Dems to 1 GOP in the Senate) and the only Republican member of the State Senate just endorsed Cruz.
Great information.
One tiny nit-pick.
Mississippi has 4 congressional districts.
only the smallest smidgeon of Michigan is in Central Time Zone. We probably get results released at 8pm Eastern ... no projected winner until 9pm to avoid controversy.
Grr. I know that. Sorry about that. Missed that on the proofing.
Problem is the .jpg is not really fixable and I can’t use a dynamic link for FR, so it will have to stay as is for now.
The latest polling suggests more than just 'eking' out a win in Michigan. He's up an average of 15.4 points in the RCP average. I trust Mississippi will go better than Louisiana went on Saturday where Trump won but only barely. I think that had at least something to do with the fact that LA was a closed primary while MS is an open primary.
Unlike Saturday, no state this week is prime Huckabee/Santorum territory. That could place a ceiling on Cruz’s growth unless he can demonstrate he can win over moderate GOP states.
That looks like a tall order but in politics, anything is possible.
We’ll see if the Cruz surge is maintained. If Trump ends up south of 70 delegates from tomorrow, and Cruz ends up with more that 50, it will solidify the narrative that Cruz is the only legitimate alternative to Trump.
Is it bad when you hope the Dems crash the Republican primary in Mississippi so your candidate can win? I just thought that was funny.
Thankx !
EXCUSE ME~ Illinois Primary is MARCH 15th!
I wish campaigns wouldn’t write off so cavalierly the little states like Hawaii, Idaho, Maine, etc. Those delegates add up.
Just so you know, the Ohio primary is next week - not tonight.
Trump wins in Open primaries because Democrats vote for him. They want Hillary to face the weakest GOP opponent. They can both praise Planned Parenthood at their debates this fall. The Democrat Party definitely has a win/win with a Trump/Hillary contest.
Sounds about right...won’t be much change in delegate counts after tonight!
Only win looks like Cruz is Idaho
That is impossible. What about all that momentum? Didn’t they say he was doing great? But Sunday placed 3rd and today out of 4 states only 1 win? What kind of momentum is that???? So confused over this.
I can’t imagine why the polls would remain open for two hours longer in Michigan’s CST areas. It makes no sense.
If anything I would assume that the polls all across the state would close at the same moment, i.e. 8PM EST and 7PM CST.
Actually, I checked. The information in the post is NOT correct. The poster has the time zones backwards.
Michigan poll closing 9PM EST, 8PM CST.
Idaho poll closing 9PM MST, 8PM PST.
Straight from the horse’s mouth.
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