Posted on 03/03/2016 8:06:33 AM PST by SeekAndFind
| Poll | Date | Sample | MoE |
Clinton (D)
|
Trump (R)
|
Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RCP Average | 2/10 - 3/1 | -- | -- | 45.4 | 42.0 | Clinton +3.4 |
| Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen | 2/29 - 3/1 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 41 | 36 | Clinton +5 |
| CNN/ORCCNN/ORC | 2/24 - 2/27 | 920 RV | 3.0 | 52 | 44 | Clinton +8 |
| FOX NewsFOX News | 2/15 - 2/17 | 1031 RV | 3.0 | 47 | 42 | Clinton +5 |
| USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today | 2/11 - 2/15 | 1000 LV | 3.0 | 43 | 45 | Trump +2 |
| QuinnipiacQuinnipiac | 2/10 - 2/15 | 1342 RV | 2.7 | 44 | 43 | Clinton +1 |
They want a brokered convention to seat Jeb!
So this genius assumes that Cruz can run the table if the other two drop out...
It’s a ridiculous assertion.
I remember that Clinton became president even though 58% of the country didn’t vote for him.
S N O R E
I agree. He didn’t even break 50% in his home state.
I agree. If it was that cut and dried, he’d already have those ‘misguided’ votes. I don’t believe it. Yet still, if that does happen and he does get the nomination, I will vote for him.....I daresay his proponents won’t reciprocate with Trump. So. It really isn’t all about ‘beating the Democrats, is it?’
The French Revolution 2.0 may just have its start in the smoky backrooms in Cleveland.
Yet Cruz won all but 5 counties.
Trump Cruz Cruz + Carson and Kasich
AL 43% 40% 57%
AK 34% 52% 66%
AR 33% 56% 67%
GA 39% 49% 61%
MA 49% 28% 51%
MN 21% 66% 79%
OK 28% 60% 72%
TN 39% 46% 61%
TX 27% 62% 73%
VT 33% 29% 67%
VA 35% 47% 65%
Delegate totals to date:
316 332 365
Raw vote totals on Tuesday (in millions):
2.59 3.88 (2.33 for Cruz, 1.55 for Rubio)
Apart from Alabama, only in Massachusetts and Vermont did Trump do better than Cruz and Rubio combined. The number of Republicans in these two states could fit comfortably into a dozen phone booths, for those who remember what these were. The nominee will have a snowball’s chance in hell of winning either state.
Except in Massachusetts, Republicans voted against Trump by landslide margins, from 57% to 79%, with a 66.8% average.
Let's say Rubio drops out, are his supporters going to support Trump over Cruz? And let's say Cruz drops out, are his supporters going to go with Trump over Rubio? THOSE are the key questions.
Means nothing.
Hillary gets indicted, you can’t even use this in the bathroom.
RE: Hillary gets indicted,
Under an Obama administration with Loretta Lynch as the AG? Fat chance of that.
I would say that Trump has a chance to beat Hillary, and I am taking that chance should he become the nominee.
Assumptions that Cruz gets all the Rubio support or Kasich support are bad assumptions.
I agree that Trump should drop out if he can’t win his home state.
haha
I really like to this theory out. Cruz vs Trump. Imho Trump will win. If he could destroy that narrative he could destroy the other narrative that Hillary will beat him in the General
I just hope people don’t burn it down.
We are still trying to live down the burning river meme. Burning down the Republican Convention would be expensive and we’re broke.
Gosh NY isn’t until April 19
Trump WILL win the New York primaries — EASILY.
But speaking of the polls, The American Thinker says something interesting -— the polls do not make much sense.
On Tuesday, CNN/ORC released a suite of head-to-head presidential polling data. The results were as follows:
- Clinton 52, Trump 44
- Sanders 55, Trump 43
- Cruz 49, Clinton 48
- Sanders 57, Cruz 40
- Rubio 50, Clinton 47
- Sanders 53, Rubio 45
It is impossible to rationalize these results in the context of the other polling data we have and the primary wins/delegate counts to date.
First, we’ll use the head-to-head data to try to decipher an overall pattern of candidate popularity among the general electorate. No matter which order we take the polling data in, the same trends emerge.
A few examples to illustrate the point:
Example 1:
(1) Clinton 52, Trump 44 —> Clinton > Trump
(2) Sanders 55, Trump 43 —> Clinton/(Sanders) > Trump
(3) Cruz 49, Clinton 48 —> Cruz/(Sanders) > Clinton/(Sanders) > Trump
(4) Sanders 57, Cruz 40 —> Sanders > Cruz > Clinton > Trump
(5) Rubio 50, Clinton 47 —> Sanders/(Rubio) > Cruz/(Rubio) > Clinton > Trump
(6) Sanders 53, Rubio 45 —> Sanders > Rubio/Cruz > Clinton > Trump
Example 2:
(6) Sanders 53, Rubio 45 —> Sanders > Rubio
(5) Rubio 50, Clinton 47 —> Sanders > Rubio > Clinton
(4) Sanders 57, Cruz 40 —> Sanders > Rubio/(Cruz) > Clinton/(Cruz)
(3) Cruz 49, Clinton 48 —> Sanders > Rubio/Cruz > Clinton
(2) Sanders 55, Trump 43 —> Sanders > Rubio/Cruz/(Trump) > Clinton/(Trump)
(1) Clinton 52, Trump 44 —> Sanders > Rubio/Cruz > Clinton > Trump
Example 3:
(1) Sanders 57, Cruz 40 —> Sanders > Cruz
(6) Cruz 49, Clinton 48 —> Sanders > Cruz > Clinton
(2) Rubio 50, Clinton 47 —> Sanders/(Rubio) > Cruz/(Rubio) > Clinton
(4) Clinton 52, Trump 44 —> Sanders/(Rubio) > Cruz/(Rubio) > Clinton > Trump
(3) Sanders 53, Rubio 45 —> Sanders > Cruz/Rubio > Clinton > Trump
(5) Sanders 55, Trump 43 —> Sanders > Cruz/Rubio > Clinton > Trump
We conclude that the order of candidate popularity within the general population is Sanders [most popular] > Rubio/Cruz > Clinton > Trump [least popular].
And yet another CNN/ORC poll from Monday shows that among Republicans, Trump is by far the most popular: Trump (49%) > Rubio (16%) > Cruz (15%). The same poll has Clinton with a massive lead over Sanders among Democrats: Clinton (55%) > Sanders (38%).
Number of states won in the primaries to date tells the same story for the GOP candidates: Trump (10) > Cruz (4) > Rubio (1). Likewise for the Democrats: Clinton (10) > Sanders (5).
The delegate counts confirm the order among Republicans: Trump (319) > Cruz (236) > Rubio (110). Likewise for the Democratic candidates: Clinton (1,034) > Sanders (408).
Did Cruz win a single county in any of the southern states? I read he did not. How about the northeast?
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