Posted on 02/24/2016 3:01:27 PM PST by NYRepublican72
If the 2016 Texas Republican primary election for president were held today, which of the following possible candidates would you vote for, or are you undecided at this time?
Frequency Percent Ted Cruz 144 35% Donald Trump 84 20% Marco Rubio 34 8% Ben Carson 30 7% Jeb Bush 20 5% John Kasich 18 4% Undecided 79 19% Refused 6 2% Total 415 100%
(Excerpt) Read more at houstonpublicmedia.org ...
Texas NPR!
Trump is leading in eight of the next 12 primaries.
as deluded as some of his followers are in believing in the mythical black or cross over vote, Cruz fans have to be realistic.
barring trump killing kittens on stage (and maybe not even then), he will be the nominee.
it is what it is.
the polls have been good. the same ones showing him losing to Clinton unfortunately. but they have nailed the primaries and there’s not reason to think they won’t keep being right.
This poll was conducted prior to Cruz’s poor performance in NV. Plus, the sample size is only 415.
I suspect there are a ton of polls that will be taken from today in all the Super Tuesday states, which will be released over the weekend.
Polls taken after Nevada will give us a better idea of where everyone stands heading into Super Tuesday.
So let me get this straight... Trump is ahead in many ST states, and Cruz is ahead in many ST states... But people think Rubio is the front runner?
OK GOPe, OK!
Why are polls with only 415 people in a state the size of Texas important?
" The first sample (N=315) included registered voters who voted in one of three elections including the 2008, 2012 Republican Primary election and the 2015 General election. The second sample (N=100) included all other registered voters
And Libertarians, and Greens, and Socialists.
40%+ = grand slam
30-40% = base hitter
<30% = strike
That would make 35% a double (or possibly a triple) assuming the lion’s share of the delegates go to Cruz.
Poll size determines the margin of error of the population being polled. Here, the poll is invalid because it appears to poll all voters, not just Republicans (or better yet, Republicans who are likely voters (see my post above quoting from their site).
But the margin of error looks about right for the sample size. Larger sample, smaller margin of error.
This poll doesn’t ring true to me with such low support for Rubio. Also, these polls don’t mean a whole lot until the full affect of South Carolina and Nevada come through.
But you Cruz Bots are still waiting to beat Rubio for second
Cruz has 29 percent support in Texas, followed closely by Trump, at 28 percent, and Marco Rubio, at 25 percent, according to an Emerson College poll released Wednesday. John Kasich takes 9 percent support, with Ben Carson at 4 percent.
Actually, I'm a Trump man. In fact, I already voted for him because I live in South Carolina.
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