Smart Politics report shows Trump, Cruz-led ticket could spell down-ballot GOP trouble in Florida

Florida Politics ^ | February 23, 2016 | Peter Schorsch

[Cincinatus' Wife]

As the Republican establishment frets over a potential Trump-led (or, to a lesser degree, Cruz-led) presidential ticket, other GOP leaders and officeholders are starting to worry about down-ticket effects.

If Trump becomes the nominee, states holding U.S. Senate races - Florida is among them - could see trouble for Republicans and the future of the GOP-controlled Senate.

A new Smart Politics report shows that rarely - or never - does a state vote for a Republican U.S. Senator and elect a Democratic presidential nominee. Of the 18 states voting for a Democratic presidential nominee with a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in the same election cycle, 11 will hold Senate races in 2016, including five crucial battlegrounds: Florida, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Arizona, and Indiana.

Of course, Trump or Cruz at the top of the ticket in November does not automatically mean Republicans will lose down-ballot. But Smart Politics reports that in Florida, it would be a first. Florida, with an open Senate seat due to the presidential campaign of Marco Rubio, is the most commonly cited Republican race in danger of flipping in 2016.

In those five states with a Democratic winner in over 35 election cycles that also had U.S. Senate races, Republicans lost all 35: 10 times in Florida, nine each in North Carolina and Wisconsin, five times in Arizona and twice in Indiana. Conversely, Kansas is the only state never to split the ticket the other way; that is, electing a GOP nominee for president and a Democrat for U.S. Senate.

Traditionally, Smart Politics says it is much more frequent for a state to split the federal ticket when there are a Republican presidential candidate and a Democratic U.S. Senate nominee (153 times) as opposed to victories for a Democratic presidential candidate and a GOP U.S. Senate nominee (78 times).

According to Eric Ostermeyer of Smart Politics: "10 states with competitive (Florida, Illinois, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) or potentially competitive (Arizona, Indiana, Missouri, North Carolina) U.S. Senate races with Republican-held seats in 2016 have voted for a GOP U.S. Senate nominee in 16 of the 60 cycles in which it backed a Democratic presidential candidate (26.7 percent)."

While there are no guarantees, having Trump or Cruz on the ticket, historically, could make it somewhat more difficult for the down-ballot Florida Senate seat to remain in GOP hands.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

The Left always tells you who they fear the most.

Famous Liberal Inadvertently Tells Republicans EXACTLY Why They Should Vote for 'Dangerous' Cruz

Robert Reich, former Secretary of Labor in the Clinton Administration, has created a video in which he warns Democrats why Ted Cruz is far more "dangerous" than Donald Trump.

In other words, Reich, who serves as Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at the University of California, Berkeley, all but endorsed Cruz as the candidate of choice for conservatives.

As he spoke, he drew pictures of Cruz and Trump on a flip-chart and jotted down what he considers to be Cruz's "dangerous" positions:

[Buckeye McFrog]

Yeah, like Marco has coattails.....that’s rich!

[goldstategop]

Cruz? The guy can’t win over conservative voters.

How he is going to win over Independents and Democrats?

Ain’t gonna happen.

[ChildOfThe60s]

Alarm bells from Robert Reich, the pint sized Marxist, is a resume enhancer for a conservative.

[marron]

Wow. You couldn’t ask for a better endorsement than this if you paid for it.

[scooby321]

But with Rubio GOP would pick up 15 seats I am sure

Even though after the first debate with Hillary

It will be over

[20yearsofinternet]

Is this one video from a lib at Salon really the best evidence you can come up with that “the Left” fears Ted Cruz above all else? A quick look at the Salon frontpage, and I see it’s littered with articles about how Trump is the coming of Satan incarnate (which you’ll probably now submit here for other reasons).

I also see one article about how Cruz’s campaign has failed.

So, one guy thinks Ted Cruz is really terrible, therefore everyone should vote for Ted?

Seems like tilting at windmills to me, and the full body of evidence suggests that Trump is who the left actually fears.

[mrsmith]

The down-ticket races would be affected by the big donors sending money to candidates who promise to fight the changes Cruz/Trump have promised.

Anti-Cruz/Trump candidates would be rolling in dough,,, and, as this article shows, the media won’t tell anyone that’s what is going on.

[DoughtyOne]

He can't win, so double and triple down.

Tighten the Scruz.

You're welcome Hillary. Mua! All the best... TC & Crewz

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Feb 21, 2016: Exclusive: Mitt Romney To Endorse Marco Rubio ~~ The establishment wagons are circling.~~

"COLUMBIA, S.C. -- In a major development in the Republican presidential race, 2012 GOP nominee Mitt Romney will endorse Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) for president, The Huffington Post has learned from two Republican sources.

Details of Romney's endorsement were still being worked out as of Sunday morning. The sources said that the former Massachusetts governor had been eager to provide his backing to Rubio for days but had hesitated, due to his respect for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (R), who suspended his campaign on Saturday night following his dismal fourth-place showing in the South Carolina primary.

Romney spent the day in Utah on Saturday and could potentially be in position to bestow his blessing upon Rubio before Tuesday's Nevada Republican caucuses--a contest that Romney won easily in both 2008 and 2012.".....

[demkicker]

Rubio is the establishments candidate. Just look at the RINO’s tripping over each other to endorse him.

All of my family is for Cruz, but we’ll support Trump is he is the nominee. And if it is Trump, he needs to put Cruz on the SC in Scalia’s place. I trust our Governor, Greg Abbott, to replace Cruz in the Senate with a genuine conservative.

But Trump need to pipe it with calling Cruz a liar!

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Huh?

[IllumiNaughtyByNature]

More Boogie Man B.S. #onlytheestablishmentGOPcansaveus lol.

[mazda77]

This Peter Schorsch?

http://www.tampabay.com/news/publicsafety/crime/no-charges-to-be-filed-against-blogger-peter-schorsch-after-sheriffs/2170329

[20yearsofinternet]

ROFL

[jokemoke]

If the GOP establishment takes down Trump, they are going to lose in record numbers for years to come.

[VanDeKoik]

It’s the new moronic meme.

Look for a lib that is critical of Cruz, wave it around as PROOF they are more “afraid” of him and that we need to nominate him ASAP!

[DoughtyOne]

[Lisbon1940]

Not just any liar but the single-biggest liar.

[Yulee]

Today's editorial by our New York Times owned local states the following: “Donald Trump, for example, is an unorthodox Republican, having stated beliefs that Democrats share, and which his GOP primary foes attack as too liberal. Despite running to be the Democratic nominee, Sen. Bernie Sanders is a declared independent and has won elections as a minor-party or independent candidate for nearly 50 years. And were it not for her last name, Hillary Clinton�€™s Wall Street ties, muscle-bound foreign policy and support for free-trade deals would be welcome in many GOP circles.”

I have a feeling our local New York times mouthpiece will endorse Sanders, especially since they fail to mention that the “independent candidate for nearly 50 years” is a communist. They paint Hillary as right wing, and Trump as liberal.

The longer people read these editorials without questioning the motives behind them, the longer the low information voters will vote in those who will do them ill.