Posted on 02/11/2016 2:40:23 PM PST by GodGunsGuts
When Ted Cruz took the stage at his primary night party in Hollis, N.H., he gave what sounded like a victory speech. And in some ways, he may have been an overlooked winner of the night.
"Washington insiders were convinced our wave of support would break in the Granite State," the Texas senator thundered. "The men and women of New Hampshire proved them wrong."
The TVs flanking him showed the results; he was edging out former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Cruz finished with just under 12 percent, good enough in the crowded field for third place.
All the attention out of New Hampshire has centered on Donald Trump, who won a resounding victory; John Kasich, who finished a surprise second; Jeb Bush, who did enough to stay in the race; Marco Rubio, who finished a disappointing fifth after a poor debate performance; and even Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, who made headlines for dropping out of the presidential race.
But lost in the shuffle seems to be Cruz, the man who won Iowa and finished third in New Hampshire - despite it not being a state that lines up well with him demographically. It's less socially conservative, less religious and more in favor of the GOP establishment than Iowa. Because of Cruz's strength, though, with those core GOP groups and a favorable primary calendar chock full of Southern states over the next few weeks, Cruz could still have a big impact. That's especially true if he can get enough mainstream Republicans on his side, the way he did in New Hampshire.
Cruz's investment in New Hampshire was minimal compared to other establishment candidates. Bush's campaign and a superPAC supporting him combined to spend $36 million in the Granite State, according to the National Review. Other candidates and groups supporting them spent millions, too. For Christie, who finished a disappointing sixth, it added up to $18.5 million; for Rubio, $15.2 million; and Kasich, $12.1 million.
But Cruz and his supporters' total investment? A mere $580,000. That comes to just $11 per vote. By comparison, Bush spent more than $1,000 per vote, as NPR's Peter Overby reports.
More importantly, Cruz seemed to break the curse of the Iowa winner. Typically, the victor in the conservative, heavily evangelical state doesn't have much appeal in the more moderate, more secular New Hampshire. In 2012, for example, after winning in Iowa, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum finished a distant fourth in the Granite State even though he spent a lot of time campaigning there - and that was in a smaller and less competitive field.
By besting the other, more establishment candidates, all of whom needed a strong finish here, Cruz sent the message he had been arguing on the campaign trail the past few days - don't pigeonhole me as just the "evangelical candidate."
"I feel terrific, and I am encouraged," Cruz said Tuesday afternoon, as he headed into the iconic Red Arrow Diner in downtown Manchester, N.H., to see if he could sway a few more votes his way. "If conservatives show up, we're going to have a very good day today. If libertarians show up and vote today, if Tea Party activists show up and vote today, if Reagan Democrats show up and vote today, if young people show up and vote today, we're going to have a really good day."
That seemed to come true for him on Tuesday night. As supporters gathered in the ballroom, adorned with tables and placards that said "Cruzin' to Victory," the message from many huddled around TVs, glued to CNN's returns, was that they just needed to medal.
"We know we need at least a top-three finish today," said one Cruz volunteer who had come from New York to campaign. "We're looking for it. We know we won in Iowa. Now we're heading to South Carolina to do work down there."
Nancy Kindler of Epping is a member of Cruz's New Hampshire leadership team. She whooped and hollered as each vote was added to his total on TV and his lead grew over Bush.
"He only wanted to make a good showing, and he's doing great. We're so proud of him, honest to God. What a campaign!" she gushed before the results were official. "Even if he comes in three, we're happy. That's great!"
Former New Hampshire Sen. Bob Smith, one of Cruz's top surrogates on the trail in recent days, told NPR at the end of the night that the Texas senator should definitely be considered one of the winners on Tuesday night.
"The expectations were low, for whatever reasons I don't know," Smith said. "He ran a strong campaign. This is a tough state for conservatives. He proved that wrong."
Another factor: while Cruz's focus remained primarily on Iowa, he didn't completely ignore the Granite State, either. Just weeks before Iowa, he made a 17-stop bus tour across the state, targeting many rural areas where more conservative voters could be swayed.
"Almost every candidate who wins Iowa comes here and doesn't do well," Smith said. "He's broken that mold."
The former senator attributed the stronger-than-expected finish to Cruz's strong grass-roots team and data and analytics operation, something that also helped him win Iowa.
The good news for Cruz: The next state on the docket, South Carolina, should be much friendlier for him. The bad news: Expectations will no longer be tempered for him, and he'll need to have a very strong showing in the Palmetto State.
Who?
This was solid analysis, somewhat unusual for NPR, although I suppose even NPR can’t ignore the giant elephant in the room
Fox likes to pretend Cruz doesn’t exist, pimping Rubio, Jeb, or secondarily Trump, but even they have had articles very similar to this.
The fact out of NH that is most impressive to me is Cruz basically spent zero money and minimal effort. To get that kind of return shows a lot about both his fiscal discipline (which I want in a President) and about how deep and committed Cruz’s support is.
See how quickly you made your case. Clear, to the point, perfect.
Why did it take Cruz 45 minutes of yammering to make that point?
Well, he would have gotten some attention, rather than putting folks to sleep.
GO TRUMP GO
You will be surprised how fast sheer determination can surpass universal name recognition.
You mean the candidate that finished behind John Kasich, barely beat Jeb Bush and was doubled by DJT in the last primary?
Isn’t Alex Trebek Canadian, too?
Cruz can try again in 4 years.
I love that the Cruz campaign is not bashful about constantly adding to their war chest. How else he supposed conquer the field and depose the establishment?
Don’t forget Ted cryz
Ok. Don’t forget NPR wants anyone running under the democrat title in the White House.
Just duh
[I will be very happy when Ted Cruz is the answer to a game show question.]
Name the candidate who was elected President of United States in 2016.
“Yes!!!!!!
He could have thrown in a few curse words and some other crude words...and called the voters of Iowa stupid and really impressed the independents and crossover voters...and all the while sewn up the evangelical votes in SC!!!
What was he thinking?!?!!?!?!!!?!?
/sarcasm”
YOU want sarcasm ? HOW ABOUT THIS:88% of the voters didn’t vote for Ted.
Gotta admit that’s pretty pathetic.
Here's some of where he stands on issues and policey....
.....Cruz wants to build a fence and increase border control forces along the US border with Mexico. ... promised to boost immigration law enforcement and opposes All "amnesty" for illegal immigrants in America. ...and end all sanctuary cities.
...Ted believes Syrian refugees should be resettled in the Middle East
... Cruz has vowed to defeat Islamic terrorism and would "carpet bomb" the Islamic State (IS) into oblivion. Further stating..."If you join ISIS, if wage jihad on America, then you are signing your own death warrant!!"
.... Cruz has pledged to stand with Israel and believes the US-Israeli alliance is important for American security.
...Cruz holds a 'hard-line stance against Iran' and has said he would rip up Mr Obamaâs Iranian nuclear deal.
....He rejects the scientific consensus on the threat posed by global warming. Stating that the facts and data simply do not support climate change....He said having viewed and studied the data:.. "They're cooking the books. They're actually adjusting the numbers."
....Cruz is an opponent of gay marriage ...He has called for the overturning of the Supreme Court's decision to legalise same sex marriage in June last year.....he argues the legality of same-sex marriage should instead be left up to individual US states.
.... Cruz would to repeal "every word" of Obamacare....
....Cruz describes himself as unequivocally pro-life and opposes abortion, even in cases of rape and incest.....and wants to stop taxpayer funding of abortions.
.....He has described marriage as a "sacrament between one man and one woman".
...The next President and First Lady of the United States of America!!!......
YOU want sarcasm ? HOW ABOUT THIS:88% of the voters didnât vote for Ted.
Gotta admit thatâs pretty pathetic.
Even worse...35% voted FOR the person that gave more than $100,000 dollars to the Clinton Crime Family Foundation!!
Pathetic is right!!!
LOL!!!!
and your point is ?
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