The Real Jobless Rate Is 42 Percent? Donald Trump Has a Point, Sort Of

New York Times ^ | 02/11/2016 | Neil Irwin

[SeekAndFind]

Donald Trump seems quite certain that the real unemployment rate is higher than the 4.9 percent that the Bureau of Labor Statistics has reported it to be. A lot higher.

"Don't believe these phony numbers when you hear 4.9 and 5 percent unemployment," Mr. Trump said in his victory speech after the New Hampshire primary Tuesday night. "The number's probably 28, 29, as high as 35. In fact, I even heard recently 42 percent."

Mr. Trump might be bombastic, but he's not entirely wrong. And the ways in which he is wrong are actually useful for anyone who wants to understand how to make sense of economic data.

The truth is, there is no "true" unemployment rate. There are a nearly infinite multitude of ways to think about, and calculate, joblessness. The unemployment rate that is widely reported in the press on the first Friday of every month isn't some manna from heaven, but rather a convention that has developed over the years that gives a partial -- but still useful -- view of the state of the labor market.

The B.L.S. itself reports six different unemployment rates, of which the one the press most commonly cites is called U-3, the third of the six options. But anyone with Microsoft Excel and access to B.L.S. and census data could dream up their own version.

So what's in that 4.9 percent "official" unemployment rate? The numerator is Americans who are unemployed, the people who told a survey taker that they do not have a job but want one and have actively sought a job in the last four weeks. There were 7.8 million people in that category in January. The denominator is the total labor force, meaning people who either have a job or are looking for one;

[Daniel Ramsey]

I believe its very high, worse i’ve seen in all my life.

Don’t care for numbers, its just plain bad.

[Grampa Dave]

Trump has brought up another issue, the low phony jobless %, that PCism is used to protect the Jihadist In Chief and his pet Congressits.

The mediots and Trump haters will jump on this baited hook like they have on illegals and other non discussed issues.

Then, Trump will enjoy the free media and set the hook in their lying jaws with the real data.

[dowcaet]

Common sense would tell you with nearly one hundred million Americans out of the workforce that supposed unemployment rate of 5% is much too low. Add to that people like myself who lost full-time jobs and are working as temps. I’m making far less than I used to and am struggling financially, but I’m surviving and not relying on outside assistance, i.e. all of you taxpayers. It means taking the bus to work and eating a lot of bologna sandwiches for lunch. This leftist “utopia” that America is being transformed into is a freaking nightmare.

[biff]

I think the U6 number is about 9+%. The real rate could be calculated if we knew how many of the 92 million folks out of the work force actually wanted a job. Donnie is not saying anything we don’t already know and haven’t known for years.

[556x45]

‘The truth is, there is no “true” unemployment rate. There are a nearly infinite multitude of ways to think about, and calculate, joblessness. ‘

In other words its mostly used as propaganda to prop up an administration. Sad that were at this point.

[Bringbackthedraft]

The rate under 5% is wrong, all one has to do is read the news about store closings and businesses moving out of the country. I believe we are past the soup kitchen era, because the Govt. has food stamps and surplus foods. We certainly do not want to project an image of the early and mid 30’s to the world. We also have an underground economy, the off the books workers and vendors. I would estimate that we are closer to 10% even with the part time workers (holding two jobs). Now going off subject a little, it seems the press doesn’t have that much of an interest in the unemployed and homeless, at least not while there is a democrat in office. If Trump or any other republican wins, be ready, they’ll be a 24/7 reporting on the homeless, along with claims that 10%+ are still out of work. Watch how the unemployment figures will miraculously expand and get blamed on the republicans.

[Logical me]

Trump is right. I agree that it must be around 30 to 35. Things are real bad in California because illegals are getting the jobs.

[WorksinKOP]

Just looked up the number of working age adults. 16 to 63 y/o’s. That’s 204 million. Number of adults not in the work force 94 million. Looks like 5% to me.

[central_va]

Over the last 30 years our “Captains of Industry” off shored our manufacturing base and imported indentured servants so we are always going to be in a a semi permanent depression from hear on end. The end being WWIII and a CWII thrown in for good measure. Quit expecting things to be rosy again, structurally that is not possible.

[GailA]

It’s not just jobless, but under employed and PT help, because of 0’care many employers have gone to 30 hr weeks. And under staff to get around 0’care. I don’t see where Nationalized Healthcare would be an improvement. It is not a free capitalism idea or free market one.

[dowcaet]

I barely have enough money at the end of the month for myself. I’m proud of the fact that I’m paying out of my own pocket for everything including my health insurance, but it’s a financial struggle. I stay hopeful because I’m sensing enough of our fellow Americans don’t want anymore of this leftist utopia being forced on us and ruining the country.

[DiogenesLamp]

Now going off subject a little, it seems the press doesn’t have that much of an interest in the unemployed and homeless, at least not while there is a democrat in office. If Trump or any other republican wins, be ready, they’ll be a 24/7 reporting on the homeless, along with claims that 10%+ are still out of work. Watch how the unemployment figures will miraculously expand and get blamed on the republicans.

I keep saying this. The gravest threat we face as a nation is one party control of the information streams. Our "news" services and our "entertainment" are all ran by left wing activists who use their positions of influence to push their world view.

We should be destroying the existing media monopoly before we worry about ISIS or Al Qaeda.

The Media has already caused far worse damage than lunatic Muslim terrorists ever could.

[RavenLooneyToon]

-America is being transformed into is a freaking nightmare.- The system is rigged for a Globalist outcome. The Uni-Party and Media have been working in concert to crush the Republic. Tail gunner Joe was right. NAFTA was the first direct hit that undermined America as a manufacturing giant. Any pol that does not support a wall and strict immigration practice is declaring his willingness to sacrifice the lives of their constitutes: they do not care if you die. The nightmare that Joe McCarthy could foresee and tried to undermine now knocks on the bedroom door. The United States has been systematically compromised. Or in the words of Nikita Khrushchev, 'We cannot expect the Americans to jump from capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving Americans small doses of socialism until they suddenly awake to find they have Communism.' The USA is actually, really, is at the point of seriously considering electing a Socialist as POTUS! We must think outside the box to stop this perversity. No, a regular run of the mill politician/lawyer will not do. To me, Trump is much like a powder keg that has been stored for years. You strategically place it on the supports of the bridge, blow the bridge and you can stop the enemy advance...so you light the fuse, and hope the powder is still dry.

[joesbucks]

So true.

The real question for all the candidate is what number will they use to report the unemployment rate once they win the White House.

[KC_for_Freedom]

Math.

46% by your numbers