Posted on 02/08/2016 7:15:35 PM PST by Hojczyk
But because of a quirk in how the state party allocates delegates and how fractured the "establishment" field is, it could mean that an anti-Trump vote will actually be a vote for the New York billionaire.
Here's how:
The state party awards delegates on a proportional basis to presidential candidates based on their vote statewide and by congressional district.
But it also has a 10 percent threshold.
What does that mean? It means that if a candidate does not get 10 percent of the vote, he gets no delegates.
And, right now, the favorite is Trump.
Trump, after all, has been leading in the polls in New Hampshire by double digits for six straight months.
Meanwhile, the so-called "establishment" candidates â the kind of mainstream Republicans that usually prevail in New Hampshire â are split. And after Saturday night's debate, with Marco Rubio's lackluster performance, that establishment vote could be fractured even further.
There are 20 delegates at stake in New Hampshire on primary night. Here's a look at how the candidates are performing in the polls currently, what that could translate to delegate-wise and how the 10 percent threshold could affect things.
According to the RealClearPolitics polling average, here's the order of the candidates (with a line inserted to represent the 10 percent cutoff):
â Trump 31 percent â 6 delegates â Rubio 16 percent â 3 delegates â John Kasich 12 percent â 2 delegates â Ted Cruz 12 percent â 2 delegates
â Jeb Bush 9 percent â Chris Christie 5 percent â Carly Fiorina 5 percent â Ben Carson 3 percent
So let's do some math: Everyone below the 10 percent threshold â Bush, Christie, Fiorina and Carson â add up to 22 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at npr.org ...
I think Cruz will get his 8 states, but they might include Guam, Puerto Rico, American Samoa, USVI, Northern Marianas, etc. I also think as some of the also-rans drop out, Trump will have a much harder time winning states. Not many who are supporting any of the other candidates are going to move to Trump.
“Bottom line of NPRâs nightmare scenario:”
Their nightmare scenario is Cruz winning or coming in second in NH.
So NPR and Vox are giving advice to republicans today.
How cute.
By the way, SC is not winner-take-all, but a hybrid. The at-large delegates are awarded to the overall winner, but the other delegates go to the winner of each congressional district.
They wouldn’t like that either.
They’ve got Cruz winning 2 out of the 20.
The rule specifies “states”. It doesn’t mention territories. I know the territories get delegates, but I don’t think they count towards the minimum 8 state rule.
Thanks for the clarification. I was wondering since winner take all is prohibited before Mar 15th. I thought maybe they were grandfathered, but that explains it.
As far as I know, they count toward the 8 state total. I read an article in Politico about the rule a couple months ago,and it specifically mentions that the territories count as states for nominating purposes.
However, if you read enough about the rule, you will also see that it can and probably will be modified prior to the convention. So if Rubio has a lot of delegates and Trump does not have a majority of the delegates going into the convention, you can bet that the RNC will change the rule to prevent Trump from getting the nomination by default.
I wonder how long Trump has been planning this run. Genius.
Manchester Union Leader publisher said tonight on WBZ that it’s been at least two years.
Here come the clowns!
Wow, does anyone want to take a trip to another planet? Just go to the article’s comment page.
It’s much more “polite” than DU, but, still...
Of course, what did I expect?
Does that count as a majority for the "8 state majority" rule, or does he need 11?
I wondered that too.
I decided it didn’t count, but just my opinion.
'Twas a time I would have argued a bit - but have recently moved from Cruz to Trump as the first line person to back, with Cruz in second on my list (no third place so it has to be one of them) - will be sending Trump a donation today.
Almost, but not quite. Each of 7 Congressional districts can split, with the winner in each district getting 3 delegates.
Otherwise, you are right, the candidate getting the most votes statewide gets 29 delegates for that, and whatever share of the 21 delegates is obtained by winning congressional districts.
you thought I was being sarcastic . I wasn’t
No, I didn't think you were being sarcastic. Nor was I being sarcastic by referring to Trump a Neanderthal. There's red in my hair, which means that Neanderthal blood flows in me, too. It's good to be Neanderthal, better than being Cro-Magnon. :)
You mean I am attracted to Neanderthal females !?
Oh my God ......
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