Drastic - a collapse in international trade.
Holy crap. What have tankers and bulk transport indexes done? Been a long time since I was a trader, but yikes. Get your ass out of the market and currency is not a hedge.
This is not good.
I don’t expect to see this reflected in the prices we pay at the grocery store. Maybe at the gas pump but nowhere else.
Ammo may be a good hedge. ZH is forthright, in your face reporting/editorializing...I respect them more than those who comment there. We will have a crash soon...not sure how we can’t. I think Soros has bet on it.
I read most of the article.. Why didn’t they mention obamatrade? I just read about him signing TTP in New Zealand. Maybe after my coffee I can try to figure out why New Zealand.
The “collapse” in the index is due to the Chinese building too many ships. Those ships are all chasing a mildly reduced amount of traffic. In effect, they’ve built the equivalent of their ghost cities to ply the ocean waves.
“Drastic - a collapse in international trade.”
The BDI shows the cost of shipping, not the volume of shipping. It is relative to supply and demand in container ships, as opposed to an indicator of goods traded.
Wikipedia:
“The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) is an economic indicator issued daily by the London-based Baltic Exchange. Not restricted to Baltic Sea countries, the index provides “an assessment of the price of moving the major raw materials by sea. Taking in 23 shipping routes measured on a timecharter basis, the index covers Handysize, Supramax, Panamax, and Capesize dry bulk carriers carrying a range of commodities including coal, iron ore and grain.”[1]”
Low BDI = lower cost of shipping goods.
Lower market costs are Double Plus Good.
While I do not adhere to the lead,foottuffs, and metals philosophy, I can honestly say I am seeing some precedent setting trends that I haven't seen at least in my investing lifetime.
I think the Baltic index is a pretty good barometer of what overall world financial conditions are heading toward. I expect a very bearish extended market for years. Right now, I am avoiding like the plague tech stocks, and anything, repeat anything of an equity that is speculative in nature,and anything with low P/E ratios. Also am only going after low debt , well run companies that have products that have sustainable long term demand
I can not and will not predict how low the markets will go or when this is going to happen.. All I know is we are going to see something at least as bad as 2008-2010. And in this era "real time investing (i.e example of of flash crashes),, it will happen fast. In my particular case, I am only staying (repeat staying) in those stocks that provide the essentials. Fuel, Food, Pharma, Home. and Real Estate I also expect at the trough, there will be some once in a lifetime bargain opportunities too.
What has got very little press lately, and shockingly is that the debt has reached $19T Folks, this is unsustainable As our enemies drive to take the dollar off as reference currency, and likely push toward a world-wide currency, this little event if going to be a rocky road. Not a gold bug, but protect yourself.
Finally, I have people who ask advise, and i refuse to give it. Every person's financial situation is different, and there is no one size fits all. But i will mention one observation that i told someone recently..... In my 30 years, I have never seen a situation, like now, where there is absolutely no decent choices of financial options to invest in. The Fed, Our government, et. al. have painted all of us into corner.
All is good, no worries, we were told today that the unemployment rate is now 4.9%.
Gaslight.
Interesting map plots showing shipping routes
Watch the world’s ships sail Earth’s oceans in REAL TIME - 22 May 2014
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2636152/Watch-worlds-ships-sail-planets-oceans-REAL-TIME-Interactive-map-reveals-crowded-routes-taken-worlds-vessels.html
Must be one hell of a storm coming...