Posted on 02/04/2016 10:23:44 AM PST by LS
On the night of the Iowa caucus events, I was getting pinged from all sides about what was happening. Unfortunately, some of us still work for a living (joke). I was on the road for an assignment and did not have access to a reliable computer or wireless. I was not "hiding" form critics, and I wasn't ignoring those of a like mind.
Finally I can address what has happened, and I don't think anyone will be happy.
The obvious:
*The polls were horribly wrong. Only the Emerson Poll got it right, but I think that was a total accident. The "gold standard" Des Moines Register is discredited; Nate Silver (thank God) is discredited. So, for myself, until proven otherwise through SEVERAL accurate polls, I'm paying no heed to these. That means we don't know if Trump is ahead in NH or nationally. Likewise, Cruzers, it blows out of the water the notion that "Cruz does better than Trump against Hillary." We don't know now, good or bad.
*While initially Trump had a classy statement of congratulations to Cruz, then he accepted full blame for not "taking Iowa seriously enough," he quickly fell into the "Cruz cheated" mantra.
Politics is vicious and I have no problem with any tricks you can get away with. Period. Moreover, it's over. You absolutely cannot fight the last battle. Every second that Trump spends on this is not only wasted time, but shows he isn't properly focused on NH and beyond. (I'll discuss the "Carson tweet/voter shaming in a minute, but not as some of my fellow Trumpers think).
Whatever happened with Carson/Cruz, the biggest takeaway of this caucus and the biggest negative for Trump is that his strength---his business acumen and organization---took a severe hit. I understand Iowa's unique religious and grass-roots character. But for someone whose reputation is based on organizing, cutting costs and getting things done, it doesn't look good. The story today from the always questionable National Journal that he still has not taken the advice of his campaign team to expand his ground operation in NH is distressing. Trump has been claiming this entire campaign (with experience to support it) that he will "put the right people" in the right positions. Iowa is an inauspicious start. Word is that Cruz has built a powerful similar grassroots network in Tennessee---another Bible Belt state where he'll do well. How The Donald responds to this challenge to his business acumen, not his political instincts, will be critical.
*Carsongate. As I said before, this is politics. I don't know who did what, and as Rush said, we can't prove that any number of voters had their votes changed. The notion that "just four votes per precinct" would give Trump the win is undeniable and just like saying that just one more touchdown a quarter would have given the Patriots the victory over the Broncos. But Cruzers, don't think this doesn't hurt Cruz and his image. He has built an image early on, well, being "St. Ted." He is the "pure" candidate, the one with God on his side. These kinds of shenanigans, combined with the "voter shaming" letter, are minor things ... but they do add up. Cruz can afford one or two of these, but if it ever gets the point that he is viewed as a hypocrite---as opposed to just "a conservative" (or even a "radical right winger"), that charge will have legs.
*The biggest winner---and yet, from another perspective, biggest loser---is Rubio. THE GOPe'S GOAL IS TO BAIT AND SWITCH RUBIO FOR CRUZ AFTER STOPPING TRUMP. Now, Cruzers, I do not think Ted intends that to happen (nor does Trump), and it's not a "conspiracy" between the two men. This is totally "strategerized" by the GOPe, knowing that one on one, Rubio cannot beat either Cruz or Trump. (I would say that to date, Trump's biggest mistake was not in skipping the Iowa debate, but in July and August, when he had Rubio in the grave, not burying him then).
But how is Rubio a loser? He exceeded expectations in Iowa and seems to have (ugh) "momentum." Except ... of ALL the candidates, Rubio not only had money and had the most campaign experience at this level, but had the entire GOPe, National Review, ALL the bloggers and the entire GOP establishment shilling for him (even attacking Jeb for wanting to stay in the race). If Rubio, with all those advantages, couldn't win, that does not speak well for his future chances. Trump may have lacked a "ground game" in Iowa, but Rubio had no excuse.
In short, we are right where the Cruzers hoped we would be: and IA win preventing a Trump landslide. But we're also where the GOPe hoped we'd be, because remember, now matter how unlikely you think it to be, THEY think they will take Cruz out easily---more easily than Trump. Even if Trump wins NH, now, nothing will be proved until a real one-on-one Trump/Cruz match occurs in the neutral battlefield of South Carolina.
Okay well what is that bombshell?
ONLY Trump is NOT PAC owned and has had to manage and make a payroll. The others are nothing but inexperienced Goldman Sachs/Microsoft/Google hacks.
No thanks!!
But I do think that if, like JFK, Obama, Cruz, or Rubio you get the tremendous honor of being elected to your first term in the US Senate and immediately discover a)that it isn't enough, and b)that what REALLY should have happened is that they should have made you President; then I think you have a character defect that requires more digging.
The "young Marco gay porn" story isn't really a gay porn story - it's a story about a kid just growing out of adolescence and so desperate to break out of his trajectory and get one foot on the ladder up and out that he will do ANYTHING - including run with a shady character as long as he gets something out of the deal.
And, not for nothing (as we NY values types say) - we know JFK and Obama have shady sexual secrets. If Rubio does, too, it gives another area in the life of the very ambitious young Senator from Texas.
The polls were probably no more wrong then when lawless Obama was reelected, the Democrats probably stuffing the ballot boxes to get revenge on George Bush 43 for ”stealing” the election from Al Gore.
Obama Likely Won Re-Election Through Election Fraud
But this time around, the ”ballot box stuffing” allegedly came from the Cruz campaign, his campaign being accused of lying to Carson supporters at the last minute that Carson was quitting the race.
And if what is being said about Cruz campaign turns out to be true then I will very reluctantly be voting for Cruz.
So although the polls were arguably wrong, they were possibly not wrong for the reason that the Cruz campaign possibly wanted everybody to think.
No, it proves the polls are underestimating Cruz, as I suspected. He is going to do even better against Hillary than the polls show.
I JUST WISH THEY WOULD ALL RECALL REAGANS’ 11TH COMMANDMENT
All they are doing is giving the media fodder
I could rip Cruz a new one in order to keep up with you teddy bears. But it’s better to focus on open borders Rubio.
All of this about Trump's childish character has long been known to those willing to have studied his background. Honestly, it only takes an hour or two. He's a first rate open borders whore, and always has been. No, what took a hit was your mistaken understanding of his business acumen and personal character. He thought he could get away without the expense of a ground game. He was wrong. In New Hampshire he's still wrong. That strategy won't work until he gets to Super Tuesday, but after showing his obvious petulance as a loser, he may not get that far intact.
Trump does not have the kind of cash he says he does, especially after the Resorts bankruptcy of 2014. Virtually all his assets are illiquid. He sure as hell can't sell or hock "goodwill." Hence, Trump can't afford the cash for a ground game and still buy advertising time without hocking everything (as he's been known to do by the way). He had to do this with tweets and free air time courtesy of the MSM or else to the well hat in hand no longer capable of pretending he can't be bought.
Honestly I don’t know who will come in second in NH... Assuming Trump performs and wins, 2nd and 3rd are kind of wide open... Bush, as much as folks don’t care for him has pretty much bet the farm on NH if he doesn’t perform in NH, then its pretty much all over for him, though he probably will stick around until Super Tuesday at least on paper.
Rubio I would think would be the most likely to get a bump from IA, as its really the establishment voting block that is fractured... anything that seems to give any one of them momentum will likely begin to bring others to them, in this case, Rubio’s stronger than expected showing in IA will likely gain him some points in NH... Enough to put him in 2nd or 3rd place? I don’t know.
If Trump under performs, Cruz will be the most likely beneficiary of that I would think, but again, as I have said time and again.. its politics so who the hell knows.
The danger for the outside type candidate, like Trump is that the establishment voters coalesce around a single candidate before they are able to leverage their momentum. I think Trump has to win the nomination outright at the polls, because if he or to a lesser extent Cruz head into the convention without a clear, overwhelming majority, the establishment will simply say EFFF the voters, and anoint the highest establishment player the candidate, even if it means they alienate 1/3 or 1/5 of their base in the process. Make no mistake, establishment republicans would far prefer to remain kingmakers even if that king is the candidate from the other party at the end, than lose their position and power letting someone like a Trump win the nomination.
Anyway, Back to the question, who is second? Well That’s the million dollar question isn’t it? Cruz and Rubio by latest polls seem to be 2 and 3, though the order is up in the air, but Christie, Kasich and Bush are in the hunt as well, while polling lower, are still in the top 6. Not from NH so I have no idea what is going on on the ground there, so frankly seeing Kasich polling in the top 5 anywhere just stuns me... but since I’m not on the ground in NH, don’t really know the whole story.
I will say if Cruz goes below third, that spells some trouble for him, even third place spells some trouble, long term for him. IF Rubio takes 2nd, or better, he’s certain to gain more establishment voters in coming states, as the establishment field shrinks... Trump and Cruz are really likely to only peel votes from each other, not that they won’t be able to get a few votes here and there as candidates drop out, but I am hard pressed to see say a Kasich voter moving to a Trump or a Cruz.
So, if I had to say top 3? Trump Cruz Rubio, with 2 and 3 being in either order. However not being on the ground there.. I think the most likely Establishment candidate to top out at this point is likely Rubio... but other candidates are polling higher there than nationally because they are betting the farm so to speak there, so Its not beyond the pair to think a Bush or Kasich or even Christie winds up winning the establishment vote unexpectedly.
For Rubio though, if this were to happen, this would force everyone to reevaluate, just as much as Trump not coming in first would. If Rubio can’t capitalize on his IA performance in NH, his argument for being the defacto establishment candidate goes up in smoke quickly.
Not being on the ground in NH its really hard to fully say what is going to happen, because for me sitting here in PA, its beyond flaberghasting that Kasich is polling in the top 5 there, but obviously he is.
IF Cruz finishes outside of the top 3 as well, this will be a negative for his campaign, because for him not to be in the top three means he’s lost support to Trump on one of the Establishment politicians and that’s not a good thing long term.
So, I think if Trump underperforms Optics Change drastically... ALso If Cruz or Rubio miss the top 3, the optics change significantly... If however all perform as currently expected, and you get a Trump with Cruz and Rubio as the top 3 (order of the 2 and 3 interchangeable) the long term optics only change in that it becomes hard for any other establishment candidate to argue that Rubio isn’t going to be the defacto establishment candidate.
Time will tell.
I honestly would love to see Ted Cruz on the Supreme Court. Absolutely perfect for his unbending approach to things and strict constitutionalism. Best of all, we could never get anyone else that hard-line conservative on the Court. But the rest of the Senate hates him so much that probably even Dems would vote to confirm just to get him out of there!
Rubio obviously has flaws - they all do.
Now Bill, you know Hillary told you not to play on the computer.
Guess we’ll see. I still prefer him to St. Ted.
Sorry, if polls can’t be trusted, you don’t know WHAT they can’t be trusted about. Can’t have it both ways.
The problem as i came to see it is that I don't think he'll be very good at persuading people who are undecided on the issues, and I think we must win that battle this year. While I'm sure he's formidable on oral argument in front of a panel of judges, I just don't see the ability to persuade undecided lay people on an emotional level. Ted's better at drawing lines than drawing people in.
We are on the verge of losing a complete generation plus to progressivism - the wars, followed by Obama, and now Bernie. Young conservatives are too hard to find, but I think many young people are still reachable if we field a candidate who can do the Reagan trick of conveying, with sincerity, that conservative values are really the best for raising up everybody's future. Reagan gave birth to an entire new generation of conservatives, because before him, Vietnam had driven a lot of young people to the left.
I know that Rubio's speeches in that regard can seem glib when you see them enough, but damn, they are pretty effective. My 19 year old daughter is completely uninterested in politics, but she was sitting with me talking about school when Rubio came on Monday night after placing third. She sat there, listened to the whole thing, and just said "who is he - I'll vote for him". Then went right back to school stuff.
I know he's not perfect, and he was wrong on the Gang of Eight. Ted's better on issues overall. But that ability to persuade and get people on the other side, or who are undecided to listen to you without acrimony and maybe be convinced...that just seems to me like the kind of magic we desperately need.
Anyway, thanks, and I certainly won't be sulking if Ted wins it. I'll just be nervous as hell that he'll push away more people than he draws in.
No, I am most concerned with hypocrisy. Because if someone isn’t acting on their beliefs, then you really don’t KNOW their beliefs. The “vote fraud” mailers, the Carson stuff, other tidbits emerging about Cruz are not painting a flattering picture. No one thinks Donald is a saint, but he doesn’t claim to be. But Cruz’s backers have him as the Second coming of John Paul II.
No, the stuff isn’t made up. It’s real. Trump should move on, but that doesn’t change the drips of mud now attaching themselves to Cruz. He can survive some. Not buckets.
Cruz doesn’t portray himself as a saint and no one thinks of him that way. We think of him as a smart politician with beliefs in small government, the Constitution and a Christian faith. Being a religious person doesn’t imply you’re perfect or better than anyone else. It acknowledges that you’re a sinner. Cruz never tells any stories that try to highlight his personal morality in any way. He sticks to the issues.
Then you haven’t even been reading the posts here on FR. You haven’t been seeing all Ted’s comments about “putting on the whole armor of God” and Rafaele’s comments about his son being a “king” “ordained to reign over America,” exact quotation. Ted is going out of his way to come across as a combo of Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell. So far, it’s working.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.